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European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund futures continue to rally in opening trade, the 10-year yield is down -1.0 bp at 0.515%, amid a wider tumble in global yields as the stock market sell off intensifies. Curves flatten as the long end outperforms and investors see global central banks delaying the withdrawal of stimulus as the escalating trade war is threatening world growth. The EU got a temporary exemption from Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, but Japan didn’t and China quickly retaliated with its own tariff plans for imports from the U.S. Asian stock markets posted 2-4.5% losses, European stock futures are also heading south in opening trade. The local data calendar is pretty empty today, leaving the focus on the EU summit, which was also set to discuss Trump’s tariff plans, but the main focus today is on the expected signing off on a U.K. transition deal and the guidelines for the EU’s negotiating position on a future trade deal with the U.K. Amid the threat of a global trade war, the pressure to at least minimise the disruption to trade across Europe is intensifying.
FX Update: Japan’s core CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in February from the 0.9% rate of annual increase in January. Total CPI climbed to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.4% in January. The core rate is the fastest pace since the 2.2% y/y gain in March of 2015, which gave way to -0.5% rates of decline from July to September of 2016. The BoJ’s target is a 2% core rate, so they are now half way there. However, the beating drums of global trade war threaten Japan’s export oriented growth engine, while the appreciating yen is a headwind to exports and inflation. The yen is holding just below 105.00 — it was as high as 114.09 in early November.
Charts of the Day
Main Macro Events Today
* US Durable Goods & New Home Sales – New home sales are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.620 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. Durable goods orders for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop.
* CAD Retail Sales – January retail sales are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge.
* CAD CPI – expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January.
Support and Resistance levels
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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