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Official

Date : 27th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th November 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

The end of the year is fast approaching. But, there is still a lot to be done over the next thirty days, with several important events and data reports to be assessed and digested before the markets can turn out the lights on 2017. One of the most crucial developments will be whether a tax reform bill can be crafted. Meanwhile, this week brings Fed Chair nominee Powell’s confirmation hearing, JEC testimony from Yellen, and an OPEC meeting. Political uncertainty in Germany will be an undercurrent ahead of Brexit talks in early December, with the EU Leaders Summit in mid-December, as well as ECB and FOMC meetings. And, a variety of top tier data on growth, inflation, production, and trade will help fine tune outlooks into 2018.

United States: There’s plenty in the U.S. this week to pique interest heading into December and year end. The holiday shopping season kicked off in style on Black Friday with strong retail spending, both in brick and mortar shops and online, with estimates around $33 bln, according to Customer Growth Partners data, which would be a 4.9% y/y pick up. Along with the focus on holidays, attention will turn to Congress which returns from the Thanksgiving recess and will set to work on the tax bill. Additionally, Fed Chair Yellen’s give her final JEC testimony (Wednesday). The Senate Banking Committee also begins hearings on Fed chair nominee Powell (Tuesday). The Beige Book is on tap too. (Wednesday).

As for data, revised Q3 GDP (Wednesday) will be a focal point. The November ISM (Friday) is estimated slipping to 58.3 from 58.7. November vehicle sales (Friday). October new home sales (Monday) are expected to drop 10% to a 600k pace unwinding some of the hurricane-distorted 18.9% jump in September to 667k. November consumer confidence (Tuesday) is seen edging up to 126.0 from 125.9. October personal income and consumption (Thursday) will help further fine tune GDP forecasts, and will also be important gauges ahead of the holiday shopping season. Other housing data is slated this week includes the September Case-Shiller home price index (Tuesday), the September FHFA home price index (Tuesday), and October pending home sales (Wednesday). Construction spending (Friday) likely rose 0.7% in October after a 0.3% September gain. Also on tap is the November Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index (Monday), which surged 6.3 points to 27.6 in October, as well as the Chicago PMI, which is projected falling to 61.0 in November from 66.2.

Canada: Employment, GDP and the BoC’s Financial System Review headline a busy week of data and events. GDP (Friday) is expected to reveal a slowdown to a 1.6% Q3 pace of real GDP growth (q/q, saar) from the 4.5% growth rate in Q2. A slowdown in growth after the robust first half has been well-flagged by the BoC. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 20.0k in November after the 35.3k increase in October. The current account deficit (Thursday) is anticipated to widen to -C$20.0 bln in Q3 from -C$16.3 bln in Q2, as the nominal trade deficit ballooned in Q3. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.5% in October (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September, as energy and commodity prices moved higher while the loonie lost value against the U.S. dollar. September average weekly earnings are due Thursday. The CFIB’s November Business Barometer sentiment measure of small and medium firms is due out Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada releases the Financial System Review on Tuesday. Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will take questions from the press.

Europe: November seems to be ending on an upbeat note with plenty of reason for cheer. Confidence indicators have surged higher; the recovery remains on track; the ECB is still in a generous mood and there are glimmers of hope on the political fronts as well. This month’s round of survey data concludes with the European Commission’s November ESI Economic Confidence Indicator(Wednesday), which after the very strong PMI readings, is expected to show a marked uptick, especially as preliminary consumer confidence numbers have already came in much higher than anticipated. The German labour market in particular is looking increasingly tight and a decline in the November sa jobless number is anticipated (Thursday) of -7K, which would leave the adjusted unemployment rate at a record low of 1.5%. Overall Eurozone numbers meanwhile are also improving and the unemployment rate(Thursday) is likely to dip to 8.8% from 8.9% in September. The HICP rates anticipated to rise around 0.2%, which would bring the German rate (Wednesday) to 1.7%, the Italian (Wednesday),French (Thursday), both to 1.3% y/y and the overall Eurozone rate (Thursday) to 1.6% y/y from 1.4%. Though still below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability, growth indicators looking stronger than anticipated, making the ECB’s decision to extend the balance sheet once again and to leave QE open-ended, seem questionable. Indeed, there are more and more signs that while the ECB is reluctant to commit to a firm end date, in the central scenario the next QE program that ends in September next year, will likely be the last. The calendar also has Eurozone M3 money supply growth, French consumption, German retail sales and another updated for French Q3 GDP.

UK: There is a risk of Brexit-related disappointment into the EU leaders’ summit in mid-December. While an FT report early last week (citing sources) attested that the EU and UK have a breakthrough in the works with regard to agreeing on divorcing terms, doubts have persisted. The EU’s Juncker said Thursday “we’ll see” as to whether there has been sufficient progress to move forward at the December-4 meeting between May, himself and EU chief Brexit negotiation, Barnier. This week’s calendar brings October lending data from the BoE (Wednesday), the November Gfk consumer confidence survey (Thursday) and the manufacturing PMI survey (Friday). The lending data expected to show steady lending to consumers, both unsecured and lending secured on dwellings, while consumer confidence to nudge lower, and the November manufacturing PMI report, to stay unchanged from November and indicate ongoing expansion in the sector.

Japan: October retail sales (Wednesday) are penciled in with a 1.0% y/y contraction after posting a 1.9% growth rate for large retailers. Overall sales are seen slowing to 0.3% y/y from 2.3% overall. October industrial production (Thursday) should rise to 1.5% y/y versus the previous 1.1% decline. October housing starts and construction orders are also due Thursday. The balance of releases come on Friday, with CPI figures headlining. The November manufacturing PMI, and November auto sales are also on Friday’s docket.

China: official November CFLP manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected to slip to 51.4 from 51.6, while the November Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday) is penciled in at 50.7 from 51.0.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 28th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th November 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook:Asian stock markets headed south again, as declines and energy and mining stocks led shares lower amid a further drop in metal prices. Concern China’s regulators may limit the flow of funds into Hong Kong’s stock markets adding to pressure. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is suspending approval of mutual funds that plan to allocate more than 80% in Hong Kong listed shares, according to media reports. The Hang Seng declined -0.65%, the CSP 300 was down -0.22%, against minimal losses in Nikkei and ASX 200. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south, as the U.S. tax debate gets underway. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 57.75. Today’s local calendar remains relatively quiet, but includes Eurozone M3 money supply, Canadian RMPI, US Housing Index, trade, consumer confidence, RBNZ Stability Report and lot of Fedspeeches.

German import price inflation fell back to 2.6% y/y in October, from 3.0% y/y in the pervious month. Like the deceleration in HICP inflation that month the drop was largely driven by lower energy prices and excluding energy the annual rate actually rose to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y. So a confirmation that energy prices continue to play a dominant role in headline developments, but also that underlying inflation pressures are slowly picking up again even on the import price front.

U.S. reports: revealed a surprising 6.2% October new home sales climb to a hurricane-boosted 685k rate that marked a 10-year high, following a trimming in September’s prior cycle-high to 645k from 667k. Home sales rose 1% in the south despite huge prior gains, though we saw larger 6%-30% October gains in the other three regions. A preponderance of upside surprises in the construction and factory-sensitive reports through early-2018 given disaster-related rebuilding activity, are still widely expected. The Dallas Fed index bucked this boost however, as well as a likely lift from rising oil prices, with a headline drop to a still-firm 19.4 from an 11-year high of 27.6 in October, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 55.6 from a 57.9 October cycle-high. A small November drop-backs has been seen in most producer sentiment levels, though still-robust levels suggest upside risk to 3.0% Q4 GDP estimate, after an assumed Q3 boost to 3.5% from 3.0%.

Main Macro Events Today

 

  • US Consumer Confidence – Expectations – seen edging up to 124.0 from 125.9.
  • September Case-Shiller home price index and the September FHFA home price index
  • Canadian IPPI – Expectations –rise up to 0.5% in October (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September.
  • Fed’s Dudley and FOMC Member Powell and Harker Speech
  • BoC Financial System Review – Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speech at 16:30 GMT.
  • RBNZ Financial stability Report


Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Support and Resistance Levels

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 29th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th November 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets seem to have shrugged off North Korea’s missile launch and turned their focus to the progress of Trump’s tax cut plans, with a weaker yen, helping the Nikkei to rise 0.49%. the ASX is also up Hang Seng and CSI 300 are underperforming and struggling to hang on to marginal gains, and the MSCI Asia Pacific index gained for the first time in three days. China’s 10-year yield remained above 4% as the PBOC once again refrained from adding net liquidity. U.K. stock futures are down, despite reported that negotiators reached an outline deal on the Brexit “divorce bill”, which would lead the Irish border issue as the only obstacle to early trade and transition talks. Today’s calendar has Eurozone ESI economic confidence, preliminary inflation data out of Spain and Germany, U.K. money supply and credit growth as well as French GDP and consumer spending.

Negotiators reached outline deal on Brexit “divorce bill”,according to Bloomberg reports.Cable surged nearly 100 points to 1.3325 following Bloomberg headlines (citing The Telegraph) saying that the U.K. and EU have agreed on divorce terms. EU leaders will still have the final say whether the offer is high enough to unblock talks on transition and trade agreements. There also remains the difficult and sensitive issue of the Irish border, but Irish Foreign Minister Coveney said U.K. and EU teams are discussing possible wordings for a commitment on the border issue, that would allow trade talks to move ahead. Ireland can still block the move at the December summit where heads of states will to sign off any possible deal.

Main Macro Events Today

 

  • EMU ESI confidence – Expectations – 114.6 up from 114.0 in October
  • US Prelim GDP – Expectations – upward revision to a 3.2% rate of growth, versus the initial 3.0% print.
  • BOE Governor Carney Speaks at 14:00 GMT and BOE Ramsden speaks at 14:45 GMT
  • Fed Chair Yellen Testifies at 15:00 GMT


Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 30th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th November 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global sell off in tech stocks continued in Asia, Japanese markets managed to outperform, underpinned by financials and the Nikkei managed a gain of nearly 0.6%, but the Hang Seng dropped 1.5%, the CSI 300 1.3% and the ASX declined 0.69%, after the government announced an inquiry into banks. South Korean listed shares dropped after the central bank hiked interest rates. UK100 futures are heading south, U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Data releases in Europe include Eurozone jobless numbers and most importantly preliminary Eurozone HICP readings for November.

Sterling continued has extended its ascent into a third day, with Cable punching out a fresh two-month high of 1.3480 and EURGBP plumbing a three-week low. Reports continue to point to a deal-in-the-works between the EU and the UK on the final financial settlement, and there is also raised hopes that an agreement will be made on the Irish border issue (and so avoid the spectre of a Dublin veto). Elsewhere, EURUSD has remained buoyant, although has thus far remained below yesterday’s peak at 1.1882. USDJPY rose for a third straight session, logging an 11-day peak of 111.24. This is the biggest rebound the pair has seen in four weeks, marking a break in the down phase that’s been in place since November (both breaking above and closing above trend resistance yesterday). Strong gains have also been seen in EURJPY, which is up nearly 1% over the last day, along with GBPJPY, which has surged by nearly 2% over the last two days. The yen, which is generally regarded as the safe haven currency of choice, has clearly not been in demand despite the haemorrhage in tech stocks over the last day, and concerns about North Korea’s ongoing development of ICBM capability.

Main Macro Events Today

  • EU CPI – Expectations – rise by 0.2% for November from 0.9% seen in October.
  • EU Unemployment Rate – Expectations – Unchanged at 8.9% for October
  • US Unemployment Claims and PCE – Expectations –Unemployment Claims expected at 240K from 239K seen last week, while core PCE expected to rise to 0.2% m/m from 0.1%.
  • Last day of OPEC meeting

Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Support and Resistance Levels

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 1st December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mostly higher as tech stocks recovered on Wall Street and key oil exporting countries agreed to extend production cuts. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperforming once again, after a weak Caixin manufacturing PMI reading. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red, however, Japanese and U.S. long yields are down. Meanwhie, WTI crude languishes at the bottom of its intra day range, trading just above the $57.00 mark, as OPEC and Russia agrees to continue output caps through the end of 2018. The agreement will reportedly be reviewed in June of next year. This was the outcome most had been looking for, though with the market still overweight on the long side, profit taking may keep further gains out of reach until positioning returns to a more neutral state. Today’s calendar has final Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings for November, which are not expected to bring major surprises and confirm preliminary readings. The U.K. CIPS manufacturing meanwhile is sseen steady at 56.5, unchanged from October.

FX Action: USDJPY edged out an 11-day high of 112.69 in the early Asia-Pacific session, and has since remained buoyant. This makes it the fourth consecutive day the pair has risen. Yen weakness has been driving the move. EURJPY logged a four-month high, at 134.29, GBPJPY a two-month high of 152.52, and AUDJPY a 10-day peak. A flood of data releases were seen today out of Japan, the more salient of which from a monetary policymaker perspective, was that inflation remains benign, with the October CPI headline coming in a just 0.2% y/y and the core CPI version at 0.8% y/y, well off the 2.0% BoJ target. Other data included a solid outcome in the November manufacturing PMI, which rose to a 53.6 reading from 52.8 in the month prior, its best in 44 months. Capital expenditure rose a solid 4.3% q/q in Q3, while labour data showed that the job to applicant ratio rose to its highest since January 1974.

Main Macro Events Today
 

  • EU & German Manuf. PMI – Expectations – rise by 0.2% for November from 0.9% seen in October.
  • Canadian GDP – Expectations – slowdown to a 1.6% Q3 pace of real GDP growth (q/q, saar) from the 4.5% growth rate in Q2.
  • Canadian Employment Data – Expectations – improve by 20.0k in November after the the 35.3k gain in October
  • US ISM Manuf. PMI – Expectations – slip to 58.4 from 58.7 for November.

Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 4th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

The collision of two opposing forces on Friday put the markets in a lather as the Senate tax cut bill garnered sufficient momentum to pass by the skin of McConnell’s teeth, but offset by news that former Trump advisor Flynn plans to plead out to lying to the FBI and indicate he was directed (by someone) to contact the Russians. According to several reports, that “someone” now appears to have been Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, who has meanwhile been invited back before the Senate Intelligence panel. At least in the short-term, this was a clear victory for volatility for a change, which was one of the main beneficiaries, contributing to large swings in stocks, yields and the dollar. It seems that December has begun with a bang and the last month of the year is certainly setting up to be an eventful one ahead of the holidays and before we close out 2017

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will feature a steady drumbeat of factory, trade, ISM services, ADP, productivity and credit data all setting the table for the main course on Friday — the jobs report. November non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 260k, with a 250k private payroll gain following the October 261k print. Factory goods orders are forecast (Monday) to rise 0.2% for October after a 1.5% gain in September. The trade deficit is expected (Tuesday) to widen to -$47.5 bln in October vs -$43.5 bln, while ISM Non-Manufacturing index is set to slip to a still-respectable 59.0 in November from 60.1. The MBA mortgage market indices are due (Wednesday),along with the release of the private ADP employment survey. Q3 productivity is expected to increase 3.3% vs 3.0% in Q2 (Wednesday), allowing unit labor costs to slip 0.1% from 0.5%. Initial jobless claims may slip 2k to 236k for the December 2 week (Thursday). Rounding out the week after the payrolls report (Friday) will be preliminary Michigan sentiment and wholesale trade.

Canada: The BoC’s announcement (Wednesday) is the focus this week. No change is expected in the current 1.00% rate setting. Taking into consideration ongoing uncertainty over NAFTA and the Bank’s desire to gauge the impact of this year’s 50 bp in hikes and upcoming mortgage rule changes, the next hike is anticipated in March at 25 basis point move. Meanwhile, a busy data calendar is on tap this week. The October trade deficit (Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -C$2.6 bln from -C$3.2 bln in September. Productivity(Wednesday) is expected to contract 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.1% dip in Q2, as hours worked growth remained firm but output growth slowed sharply. Building permits (Thursday) are expected to fall 1.0% in October after the 3.8% gain in September. Housing starts (Friday) are projected to slow to a 215.0k unit growth rate in November from the 222.8k growth clip in October. Capacity utilization (Friday) is on track to improve to 85.1% in Q3 from 85.0% in Q2.

Europe: Political events move to the forefront again, as U.K. Prime Minister May is set to meet EU’s Juncker and Barnier on Mondayand Germany’s Social Democrats are inching closer towards formal coalition talks with Chancellor Merkel and her CDU/CSU alliance. SPD leader Schulz has a chance to put the issue to a vote at a party conference this week but as the last round of coalition talks showed, even the start of formal negotiations would not secure that there will be a deal at the end. Data releases this week are expected to confirm the stronger than expected growth trajectory. The final reading of the November Eurozone Services PMI(Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 56.2, with companies reporting swift job creation, but also a buildup of inflationary pressures that will add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB. German October manufacturing orders (Wednesday) may be expected to correct -0.2% m/m , after the rise of 1.0% m/m in the previous month, but the overall trend remains very strong. Meanwhile German industrial production should still benefit from the robust rise in orders in previous months and is expected to have expanded 1.0% m/m in October. The data calendar also includes German trade data, French production, Eurozone retail sales and producer price inflation. Supply comes from Germany, with a EUR 2 bln 10-year Bund auction scheduled for Wednesday.

UK: Monday’s meeting between British PM May and top EU officials will draw a lot of attention, as this is the juncture when an agreement on divorcing terms is now widely expected to be announced. The pound rallied by over 1% last week at the prompt of media reports suggest that both the UK and the EU have reached a concord with both the final financial settlement Britain will pay before leaving, to square exiting obligations, and the Irish border issue — the two thorniest issues of the three issues that comprise the overall divorcing arrangements (the other being the rights of EU and British citizens living in each other’s territory). Should this prove the case, talks on a post-Brexit trading relationship can begin, along with the possibility of a transitory period.

The data calendar this week is highlighted by the release of the construction and service-sector PMI November surveys (Mondayand Tuesday, respectively). These will follow the much stronger than expected November PMI report for the manufacturing sector, released on Friday, which has offered fresh evidence of the impact that a competitive exchange rate and rising European demand have been having on the sector. Production and trade figures for October are also due on Friday.

Japan: In Japan, November services PMI (Tuesday) is penciled in edging up to 53.5 from 53.4 previously. Revised Q3 GDP (Friday)is forecast to improve to a 1.6% y/y pace, from the initial 1.4% reading. Also, the October current account surplus is seen narrowing to JPY 1,700 bln from 2,271 bln in September. November bank loan figures are also on deck Friday.

China: China November Caixin/Markit services PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 51.5 from 51.2, while the November trade report(Friday) should see the surplus narrow to $35.0 bln from $38.2 bln. November CPI and PPI (Saturday) should show some slowing in inflation and we estimate the former at a 1.7% y/y clip from 1.9%, and 5.9% y/y from 6.9% for the latter.

Australia: The RBA is seen holding rates steady at the current 1.50% rate setting (Tuesday). The Q3 current account deficit(Tuesday) is seen narrowing to -A$9.0 bln from -A$9.6 bln. Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to expand 0.3% m/m in October after the flat reading in September. GDP (Wednesday) is expected grow with a 0.5% gain (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.8% improvement in Q2. The trade surplus (Thursday) is anticipated at A$1.9 bln in October from A$1.7 bln in September. Housing investment(Friday) is expected to rise 2.0% m/m in October after the 2.3% drop in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 5th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: The boost from U.S. tax cut hopes started to fade in Asia and equity markets mostly headed south, as investors moved out of tech stocks once again and into banks. The Nikkei closed down -0.37%, the Hang Seng is down -0.57%. U.S. futures moved higher, but UK100 futures are also down, as yesterday’s hopes of a Brexit deal that would pave the way for talks on trade and transition were smashed for now. Long yields moved higher in Asia, although late gains in Bund futures yesterday and the prospect that the GER30 is likely to retreat further from yesterday’s highs, could see yields also coming down somewhat in early trade. The data calendar includes the final readings of Eurozone services PMIs for November, as well as the U.K. services PMI and EMU retail sales. German coalition talks and Brexit negotiations remain in focus ahead of next week’s EU summit.

FX Action: USDJPY lifted marginally during the pre-European session in Asia. Higher U.S. Treasury yields helped lift the pairing in the face of generally lower stock markets in Asia-Pacific, which were afflicted by a resumption in the global tech sector selloff (the Nasdaq closed on Wall Street yesterday with a loss of just over 1%). AUDJPY buying was seen following above-forecast retail sales data out of Australia, which was followed by a comparatively less dovish statement from the RBA governorfollowing today’s policy meeting that left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. Meanwhile, in Europe, Cable has settled around 1.3470 after dropping to a 1.3412 low from levels above 1.3500, since there was no deal with regard to divorcing arrangements between EU and UK. PM May said during a press conference with EU’s Juncker that “differences remain” despite having a “constructive meeting.” Is also became clear that there would be no breakthrough deal on the Irish border at meeting between May and Juncker. For a while it seemed that a compromise deal had been reached, but May’s Northern Irish ally DUP criticised the leaked details earlier although May said there will be further talks ahead of the EU summit next week, which means there is still the chance that there will be sufficient progress for EU leaders to pave the way for early talks on trade and transition next week.

Main Macro Events Today
 

  • EU & German Service PMI – Expectations – unchanged at 56.2 and 54.9 respectively.
  • UK Service PMI – Expectations –a headline of 55.0 after the 55.6 reading of the October survey.
  • Canadian Trade Balance – Expectations – narrow to -C$2.6 bln from -C$3.2 bln in September.
  • US ISM Non – Manuf. PMI – Expectations – 59.0 in November from 60.1.

Charts of the Day

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Support and Resistance Levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 6th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets tanked in Asia overnight, with Nikkei and Hang Seng both losing nearly 2% as technology, mining, consumer and industrial sectors came under pressure and a stronger Yen added to the sell off in Japanese stock markets, while the ASX outperformed with a -0.44% loss as the AUD weakened on disappointing GDP numbers. Australia GDP expanded 0.6% in Q3 (q/q, sa), mildly undershooting expectations but after an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in Q2 (was +0.8%). GDP climbed 2.8% y/y in Q3 after a revised 1.9% growth rate in Q2. AUDUSD fell to 0.7574 from 0.7613 just ahead of the report, as the undershoot of total GDP relative to projections combined with the sluggish household consumption growth pace squashed the mild jolt of rate hike optimism seen following modestly less dovish outing from the RBA. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down and ongoing pressure on stock markets should keep EGBs supported and yields The calendar has the Eurozone retail PMI, with Brexit talks remaining a key focus ahead of next week’s EU summit.

German manufacturing orders unexpectedly rose 0.5% m/min October. Expectations had been for a correction from the strong September number, but while the last figure was revised up to 1.2% m/m from 1.0% m/m, the October number showed a further improvement of 0.5% m/m (median -0.2%). This confirms firm survey data and expectations for another strong GDP growth rate in Q4. The German, but also the overall Eurozone industrial sector continues to fire on all cylinders with job creation accelerating, but price pressures also emerging now. Against that background Draghi could tweak the forward guidance next week somewhat to clarify that in the central scenario net asset purchases will end in September next year, even if the door to another follow on program remains theoretically open.

Main Macro Events Today
 

  • ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – increase to 185k for November vs 235k previously.
  • US Labor Costs (Q3)- Expectations – slip to 0.2% from 0.5%.
  • BoC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change is expected to the 1.00% rate setting in today’s announcement. Bank-speak since the September rate increase emphasised that the Bank is in an “intense data dependent mode” and will be cautious in the removal of further stimulus. Uncertainty remains elevated, notably around the (still) ongoing Nafta negotiations.
  • Oil Inventories – Expectations – a decline by 0.25M Barrels from last week -3.429M outcome.

Charts of the Day

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Support and Resistance Levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 7th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets recovered in Asia overnight, with Japan leading the way as the yen weakened. Tech stocks rebounded, after sell off in U.S. stocks halted. The Nikkei managed a 1.45% gain, outpacing moves higher in Hang Seng and ASX 200. The CSI 300 underperformed and headed south, with commercial banks under pressure on the mainland and in Hong Kong after regulators said it is planning the introduction of quantitative indicators in the management of commercial banks’ liquidity and the IMF suggested banks to increase capital buffers against a sudden downturn. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher, confirming that risk appetite is returning, which could see Bund and Gilt yields recover some of yesterday’s losses. Today’s calendar has U.K. house price inflation from Halifax and the detailed reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP. Brexit talks remain in focus and in Germany the SPD is set to make a formal decision on whether to enter coalition talks with Merkel’s CDU/CSU a party convention today.

German industrial production unexpectedly dropped -1.4% m/m in October and while September was revised up to -0.9% m/m from -1.6% m/m reported initially, it still leaves production down for a second consecutive month. The numbers look at odds with strong orders numbers and survey data, but indicated a build up in the backlog of orders that also squares with PMI reports. This would suggest that the weaker than expected production numbers are not a sign of weakening growth momentum, but at least partly a reflection of the fact that companies seem to be running into capacity constraints, and while the annual rate fell back to 2.7% y/y from 4.1% y/y, the growth rates remain robust so far.

Main Macro Events Today
 

  • EU GDP (Q3) – Expectations – unchanged at 0.6% q/q and at 2.5% y/y.
  • ECB Pres. Draghi Speech at 16:00 GMT in Frankfurt
  • US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – up by 2k to 240k for the December 2 week.
  • Canadian Building Permits and Ivey PMI- Expectations – Building permits expected to fall 1.0% in October after the 3.8% gain in September, while Ivey PMI expected to slip by 1.1 to 62.7 for November.

Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Support and Resistance Levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 8th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets rallied after a positive close on wall Street. The trade surplus overshot expectations, and is bullish for China’s economy. China’s trade surplus improved to $40.2 bln in November from $38.1 bln in October, while Japan’s Q3 GDP grew 2.5% in the final reading, up from the preliminary 1.4% gain (q/q, saar). GDP grew 2.9% in the final report for Q2. Japan led the way as a weaker yen underpinned exporters, as the dollar gained amid reports that U.S. tax cuts are making progress in congress. With investors looking in profits at the end of a strong year for stocks there have been sizeable swings and forex markets remain a driver, with FTSE 100 futures in the red, as the Pound rallied on news of progress in Brexit negotiations that could see next week’s EU summit pave the way for early trade and transition talks. U.K. jobs data in the afternoon overshadows local data releases, which include French production, U.K. trade and the U.K. NIESR GDP estimate.

White smoke over Brussels as U.K. and EU strike deal on key Brexit issues that is hoped to unlock Phase 2 and talks on a transition period and future trade relationships at next week’s summit. After agreeing on the future role of the ECJ yesterday May managed to find a compromise on the Irish boarder, that kept the DUP happy but also satisfied the Republic of Ireland, with the latter confirming that it will now back talks moving into Phase 2. The Pound rallied on the news and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher now after initially dipping on the stronger Pound. EGB yields are moving up in early trade as safe haven flows are being reversed. Elsewhere in europe, German sa trade surplus narrowsed as imports surged. Germany’s sa trade surplus narrowed to EUR 19.8 bln in October, from EWUR 21.9 bln in the previous month, as exports contract for a second consecutive month, while imports surged 1.8% m/m, after falling -1.1% m/m in September. The surge in imports may give a partial explanation and overall the prospects for exports and production remain good, despite the weak October numbers.

Main Macro Events Today

 

  • UK Manuf. and Industrial Production – Expectations – Manufacturing Production to come at 0.1% m/m after 0.7% seen in September, and with 3.9% y/y growth from 2.7%. Industrial production headline to come in at 0.0% m/m after 0.7% m/m growth in September, and with 3.5% y/y growth.
  • US NFP – Expectations – at 200K from 261K seen last month
  • Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count


Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Support and Resistance Levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 11th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

The FOMC meeting is front and center this week following the solid November jobs report on Friday, which provided the final bit of cover for the Fed to push ahead with a quarter point December rate hike as well telegraphed. It will be the last meeting conducted by Chair Yellen, who can now tie a bow on her 3+ year tenure and hand the policy wand over to Jay Powell. Attention will remain on Europe too with a number of key events late in the week, including ECB and SNB policy meetings Thursday, and EU Leaders Summit and Brexit discussions, as well as German coalition building.

United States: The U.S. calendar will be crowded by supply and the FOMC policy decision, but the economic reports could pack some punches of their own thanks to key releases on inflation and retail sales, among others. November headline PPI (Tuesday) is forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.4%; core PPI is set to increase just 0.2% vs 0.4%. The Treasury budget gap is also out (Tuesday) and is expected to narrow slightly to -$132 bln in November from -$137 bln a year ago. Headline CPI (Wednesday) is on tap to rise 0.4% in November from 0.1%; with a 0.2% core rise forecast. MBA mortgage applications and EIA energy inventories are also due (Wednesday). Headline retail sales (Thursday) are projected to increase 0.6% for November from 0.2%, while ex-auto sales may outperform at 1.0% vs 0.1%, given weaker auto sales of late. Import prices (Thursday) may rise 0.7% in November, while export prices are seen up 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are seen steady at 236k for the December 9 week. Business inventories may sink 0.1% for October (Thursday). All out on Friday, the Empire State index may rise to 20.0 in December from 19.4, industrial production is set to rise 0.2% in November and capacity use to 77.1%, while TIC flow data is due.

Canada: Governor Poloz’s speech (Thursday) to the Canadian Club Toronto is the highlight of a fairly lean calendar this week. The speech will be published at 12:25 ET, with a press conference to follow at 13:45 ET. In last week’s announcement, the BoC maintained a cautious approach to further rate hikes amid “considerable uncertainty” on the global outlook. The press conference should make for interesting listenin, as Poloz and Wilkins expected to receive end of several pointed questions about wages, trade, GDP and what it will take to prompt another rate increase. Meanwhile, the economic reports due out this week have limited scope to alter the outlook for BoC policy. October manufacturing is expected to bounce 1.5% after the 0.5% gain in September. Existing home sales for November (Friday), the October new home price index (Thursday) and the Teranet/National HPI (Wednesday) will complete the housing data docket for October/November.

Europe: With the holiday period approaching fast, the week is a bumper one for data, as well as key political events, and key central bank meetings. After May and Juncker reached a breakthrough agreement on key Brexit issues, EU heads of states are expected to officially declare that sufficient progress on divorce terms has been made to move to phase 2. In Germany, there is fresh hope that new elections can be avoided after the SPD reversed its decision not to enter coalition talks. The first official meeting is scheduled for this week. These events may overshadow Thursday’s ECB meeting to a certain extent, especially after Draghi effectively mapped out the policy path until the end of September 2018 by delivering a 9 month QE extension in October. Data releases ahead of the ECB meeting will be overshadowed by the full event calendar and focus on final inflation data for November, as well as the first round of December confidence data with preliminary PMI and German ZEW readings. Expectations are for the confidence numbers to fall back slightly, but remain at very high levels, consistent with strong growth and job creation. The headline HICP rates expected to confirm preliminary numbers of 1.8% for Germany (Wednesday), 1.3% for France (Thursday) and 1.1% for Italy (Thursday), which should leave overall Eurozone HICP (due Dec 18) at 1.5%, below the 2% upper limit for price stability, but with signs that underlying inflation pressures and wages are starting to pick up.

UK: The pound opens the new week on a fragile footing after coming under pressure on Friday. That drop was partly due to sell-on-the-fact moves following the agreement between the EU and U.K. on divorcing terms, partly on rising concerns as the details of the deal are digested, and also in part on the sharpening of focus on the realities of the next phase of negotiations, which will involve agreeing on new trading terms with 27 countries in the relatively short time period until Brexit-Day in March 2019. The EU has already warned the U.K. that trade talks can’t happen until March next year. The main concern about the divorce agreement is “regulatory alignment” accord that was needed to maintain the Irish border as a soft border, a circumstance, as U.S. trade representatives have warned before, that could hinder or stop the U.K. from signing free trade deals with other countries. This seems to suggest that the government has, essentially, positioned the U.K. for a “soft” Brexit, and we have to now see how this unfolds politically.The data calendar is highlighted by November inflation numbers (Tuesday), the monthly labour market report covering October and November (Wednesday), and the November retail sales report (Thursday).

Japan: In Japan, November PPI (Tuesday) is expected unchanged after firming to 3.4% y/y in October versus September’s 3.1%. However, the slightly stronger yen may have limited PPI gains. Any sign of rising inflation will be good news for the BoJ. The October tertiary index (Tuesday) should rebound 0.3% versus the previous -0.2% outcome based on gains in recent real sector data. October machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in with a 3.0% m/m gain from the 8.1% drop in September. Revised October industrial production is due Thursday. It posted a 0.5% gain in the preliminary report versus September’s -1.0%. It’s been on a choppy, saw-toothed monthly path through the year. Friday brings the December Tankan index, seen improving to 25 from 22 for large manufacturers, and to 26 from 23 for large non-manufacturers.

China: November industrial production (Thursday) is forecast at little changed at 6.1% y/y from 6.2% previously. It’s held a 6-handle most of the year, with a couple of readings in the 7s. November fixed investment (Thursday) is expected to slow to a 7.1% y/y pace from 7.3%. November retail sales (Thursday), meanwhile, should rise to a 10.3% y/y rate from 10.0% previously.

AustraliaReserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks at the Australian Payment Summit 2017 (Wednesday) on “An eAud?” Head of Payments Policy Richards participates in a discussion panel (Wednesday) at the Australian Payment Summit 2017. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent speaks (Wednesday) on “The Availability of Business Finance.” The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain in total jobs during November following the 3.7k rise in October. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 5.4% in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 12th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, as this week’s central bank meetings come into focus and amid a lack of incentive for investors to push out indices beyond recent highs. U.S. markets still managed to move higher as investors shrugged off the explosion in New York, and while volumes were lacklustre U.S. but also U.K. stock futures are moving higher. The FTSE 100 already outperformed yesterday and ongoing pressure on the Pound is continuing to underpin market interest. Oil prices are higher on the day with the front end WTI future trading at USD 58.39 per barrel. The calendar, which started very slow yesterday, heats up today, with U.K. inflation numbers for November and the German ZEW investor confidence reading for December.

FX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed so far today as market participants sit on their hands ahead of key data from key economies this week, the first of which arrives later in the form of UK November inflation data and the latest German ZEW investor survey, along with a plethora of central bank policy decisions. EURUSD has settled near 1.1780, lacking direction after the rebound from Friday’s 1.1730 low stalled at levels above 1.1800. USDJPY has plied a narrow 14 pip range so far today, between 113.43 and 113.57, settling toward the lower part of this range, which roughly marks the midway point of yesterday’s range. Cable has settled to a narrow oscillation just above yesterday’s three-session low at 1.3330. The NZ dollar bucked the directionless trend, with the currency having rallied for a second successive session as markets continue to react to yesterday’s announced appointment of Adiran Orr as the new RBNZ governor. NZDUSD logged a two-week high at 0.6937.

Main Macro Events Today

 

  • UK CPI and PPI – Expectations – headline and core CPI readings to remain unchanged at 3.0% y/y and 2.7% y/y, respectively, though producer input and output costs expected to tick higher, to respective rates of 6.8% y/y, from 4.6% y/y in the month prior, and to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in October.
  • German ZEW Sentiment – Expectations – at 18k from 18.7K seen last month
  • US PPI and Core – Expectations – forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.4%; core PPI is set to increase just 0.2% vs 0.4%.
  • ECB President Draghi Speech at 19:00 GMT


Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 13th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook:Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan underperforming as the yen strengthened amid a wider dip in the dollar. The Hang Seng meanwhile outperformed and bounced back 1.3% with Air China Ltd rallying but casinos leading the gains on the benchmark index. U.K. and U.S. futures are in the read, however, ahead of the expected Fed hike today and as the dollar was hit by the Democrats win in the Alabama vote, which cast further doubt on Trump’s legislative agenda. Treasury yields declined overnight and Bund futures moved up from lows, suggesting fresh safe haven demand. The Fed announcement will overshadow the European calendar, which has German inflation at the start of the session as well as U.K. labour market data and Eurozone production and employment numbers.

German Nov HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.8% y/y, as expected and up from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that the main driver behind the uptick was a rebound in energy price inflation, with petrol prices rising 2.6% m/m, bringing the annual rate up to 5.9^ from 1.2%. Heating oil prices also surged and while the German headline rate now is pretty much in line with the ECB’s objective, Draghi can still refer to the transitory impact of energy prices and still wage growth when he defends his very expansionary policy. More importantly perhaps, the German rate is above the Eurozone rate and as there hasn’t been much progress with regard to economic convergence since the crisis, stronger countries such as Germany may have to be forced to live with a period of above target inflation to give the weaker countries more time to catch up. Either way, with wage growth still weak Draghi still has something to argue with as he defends his ongoing asset purchases, although with companies running into capacity constraints today’s numbers will add to pressure from Germany to commit to an end date for QE.

Main Macro Events Today

 

  • UK ILO Unemployment & Average Earnings – Expectations – ILO unemployment rate expected to tick lower to a new 40-year low of 4.2%, from 4.3%, while the BoE-watched average household earnings to tick up to a cycle of 2.5% y/y from 2.2% y/y.
  • US CPI – Expectations – 0.4% in November from 0.1%; with a 0.2% core rise forecast.
  • FED Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference at 19:00 GMT


Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 14th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south overnight as the Fed hiked rates and maintained the rate outlook for next year, despite lifting growth projections. A surprise hike in short term interest rates by China’s central bank added to pressure. U.K. futures are also heading south as the focus switches to European central banks with ECB, BoE and SNB all seen on hold. The ECB in particular could sound more hawkish than at the last meeting as council members are increasingly divided over Draghi’s open ended QE policy amid signs of capacity constraints in the economy. Data releases include preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for December, U.K. retail sales, as well as final November inflation data for a number of Eurozone countries. EU heads of states will start to gather for the start of the summit that is hoped to finally pave the way for talks and trade and transition agreements with the U.K.

FOMC hiked 25 bps and left the dots at three tightenings in 2018. The rate increase from a 1.25% to 1.50% policy band was universally expected, and the three tightenings next year was largely anticipated too. There were two dissents, with Evans and Kashkari dissented and voted for no change in rates. The Fed’s statement said the labor market continued to strengthen while economic activity was seen rising at a solid rate. On inflation, the Fed said overall and core inflation on a 12-month basis had declined this year and are running below 2%, , which may have provided the weight on the dollar.The dollar fell after the as-expected 25 basis point Fed rate hike, then quickly headed above levels just prior to the announcement, before dipping again.

Main Macro Events Today
 

  • SNB Monetary Policy – Expectations – SNB expected to continue to highlight the need for negative rates and reiterate the line from its previous policy meeting that it “will remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.”
  • UK Retail Sales – Expectations – 0.4% m/m rise after a 0.3% m/m gain in the month prior
  • BoE Preview – The BoE’s two-day December MPC meeting concludes today. No change decisions on the repo rate, which would leave it at 0.50%, and QE totals (both gilts and corporate bond purchases) are widely expected, which we anticipate will be by unanimous votes at the nine-member committee.
  • EU Services PMI – Expectations – a dip in the services reading to 56 from 56.2 and a decline in the manufacturing number to 59.8 from 60.1 in the previous month.
  • ECB Preview – Data releases since the October meeting, when Draghi wrapped a reduction of net asset purchases form January onwards in a dovish guidance, have shown stronger than expected growth momentum that will likely see upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. Against that background calls for Draghi to finally commit to an end date for QE are getting louder as are warnings that the ECB’s policy may remain too accommodate as the output gaps closes faster than anticipated. Indeed, the event risk for today’s press conference is a more hawkish tone than markets expect, especially after yesterday’s Fed hike, as the move will give Draghi more room to manoeuvre without putting undue upward pressure on the EUR.
  • US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims – Expectations –Headline Retail sales are projected to increase 0.3% for November from 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are seen at 239k from 236K last week.

Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 15th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south overnight, U.K. futures are also in the red, following on from broad losses on European and U.S. equity markets yesterday. Uncertainty over the progress of the U.S. tax bill continues to linger and relatively dovish signals from ECB and BoE yesterday sent yields down, but failed to lift sentiment on stock markets and while ECB President Draghi insisted on the open ended element of the QE program, ECB’s Vasiliauskas said “it is likely that the economy won’t require any additional support”. EU heads of state failed to reach an agreement on the immigration crisis yesterday and Brexit talks will take centre stage today, with officials expected to pave the way for talks and trade and transition. The economic calendar quietens down with Eurozone trade data the highlight of the agenda.

FX Update: The dollar has been traded mixed, posting fresh losses versus the yen and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar, consolidating gains it saw yesterday versus the euro, in the wake of the ECB’s announcement and guidance, and holding steady-to-firmer against a raft of emerging-world currencies. The pound, meanwhile, is trading versus the dollar near the levels prevailing ahead of the BoE announcement and statement yesterday, having managed to recoup losses. USD-JPY is down, having ebbed back below 112.20, though has so far remained above yesterday’s nine-day low at 112.06. Mostly weaker stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region, along with a solid reading from the latest quarterly Tankan survey of business confidence in Japan, which showed the best quarter for Japanese manufacturers since 2006, were factors that have been conducive for yen strength. EUR-USD and euro crosses consolidated losses seen in the wake of the ECB’s dovish guidance yesterday. EUR-USD made time in a narrow range in the upper 1.17s. More of the same seems likely today. Sterling markets will pay particular attention to Brexit talks at the EU’s leaders’ summit.n.

Main Macro Events Today
 

  • EU Trade Balance – Expectations – decrease in trade surplus,down to 24.4B from 25.0B euros.
  • MPC Member Haldane Speech at 13:15 GMT
  • Canadian Manufacturing Sales- Expectations – 0.8% from 0.5% from last month.
  • US Empire State index – Expectations – 20.0 in December from 19.4
  • US Industrial Production- Expectations – 0.2% in November and capacity use to 77.1%

Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 18th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

Global markets can benefit from some early Christmas presents as major political uncertainties seem to be resolving. The U.S. Congress is expected to pass the tax reform package and send it to President Trump before the weekend. Agreement between the EU and U.K. will move Brexit talks to the second stage. And, Germany’s SPD party agreed to exploratory talks on renewed cooperation with Chancellor Merkel. About the only hurdle could be Thursday’s elections in Catalonia. For bonds, the dovish policies from the ECB and BoJ, a less hawkish BoE, and still benign inflation, should keep a ceiling on rates. Trading will quiet into the weekend with early closes on Friday ahead of Christmas on Monday, with many markets still off Tuesday.

United States: As the year starts to wind down, attention will remain on the tax bill. After much wrangling, it appears a bill will be passed after several GOP Senators indicated they would vote yes on the compromise version. The House is slated to vote Tuesday, with the Senate likely on Wednesday to give ailing Senator McCain time to get to Washington. As for data, all of the crucial reports are out of the way. Housing reports headline the economic calendar, which also includes revised GDP, December manufacturing numbers, income/spending, and durable goods orders. But the reports won’t really alter current outlooks for solid economic gains and still low inflation. Also, several of the reports, especially housing and durables, will still be impacted by disaster whiplash.

Canada: In Canada, the data slate provides another round of figures for the Bank of Canada’s data driven approach to policy, which was back in the spotlight last week after the Governor said “caution” in not a code word for on hold.Hence the anticipation remains that they will hold steady in January, hike 25 basis points in March to 1.25% and implement two more moves later in 2018 to gradually lift the policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2018. The economic data this week will be scrutinised for clues that conditions will be/won’t be ripe for a rate hike at the January 17 announcement. Wholesale shipment values (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.5% in October after the 1.2% drop in September. October average weekly earnings, part of the establishment survey, are also due Wednesday. The CPI is expected to rise 0.2.% in November (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to rise 0.5% in October after the weak 0.1% gain in September. October GDP has the privilege of being the last report released this year and expected to rise 0.2% after the 0.2% m/m pick-up in September.

Europe: Political events were relatively positive in Europe last week. The elections in Catalonia on December 21 provide a last focus on the political arena this week, especially as polls suggest a head to head race between the parties in favour and those against independence from Spain. This week’s round of date releases include the German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday), which we expect to nudge higher to 107.5. The German economy is bursting at its seems and the Bundesbank just upped its growth forecast significantly at least for this year and warned to sizeable wage growth ahead. ECB’s Draghi meanwhile continues to see not insufficient progress on inflation and wages and indeed, November Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) is expected to be confirmed at 1.5%, up from the previous month, but far below the ECB’s objective. More importantly, the breakdown is expected to confirm that higher energy prices were the main driving factor behind the uptick in the headline rate in November and core inflation is still at just 0.9% y/y. So plenty for Draghi to argue with, although whether the central bank can risk seeing inflation running away in the largest economy remains to be seen. More importantly perhaps, while growth forecasts have been revised up, the growth profile in Germany and the Eurozone suggests a peak in annual rates this year, so the ECB will start to scale back support when growth is already slowing down. The calendar also has German producer (Wednesday) and import price inflation (Friday) for November, where energy prices are expected to lift headline rates. Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as consumer confidence readings for Germany and the Eurozone are also on the agenda, as are French consumer spending and national confidence indicators for Italy and France.

UK: Sterling markets, as others, will be winding down for the Christmas and New Year holiday period while still digesting the less hawkish than anticipated guidance the BoE delivered following its MPC meeting last week. The calendar this week kicks off with the December CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), which expected to show a modest decline in the headline total orders reading, to +15 from +17 of the November survey. The CBI also releases its December distributive sales report (Wednesday). The third and final release of Q3 GDP data is up (Friday), along Q3 current account data.

Japan: In Japan, the BoJ meets (Wednesday, Thursday). No changes are expected to rates or QE. Despite a much improved economy, inflation is subdued. Chief Kuroda is expected to remain patient for now. The October all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected up 0.2% versus the 0.5% decline in September. .

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to its December meeting (Tuesday). Rates were held at 1.50%, as expected. The calendar contains no top tier data this week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 19th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with Japan and South Korea underperforming as Japan decides to strengthen its missile system to defend against North Korea. RBA meanwhile showed increased confidence in the economic outlook, which weighed on bonds, but underpinned gains on stock markets. Technology shares underpinned gains in Hang Seng and CSI 300. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher and the risk on theme continues as U.S. tax reform hopes underpins sentiment. European peripheral bond markets outperformed yesterday underpinned by Portugal’s ratings upgrade, but with Spain outperforming on both bond and stock markets. Today’s data round includes German Ifo confidence for December, which is expected to fall back slightly. Eurozone construction output and wage data are also due.

FX Update:Narrow ranges have been prevailing, and more of the same looks likely, though there could be some chop around data releases and news developments, with moves prone to be exaggerated by thin market conditions. All the dollar pairings we track are showing less than a 0.2% range so far today. USDJPY’s range has been centring around 112.50, while EURUSD has managed to drift up from around 1.1775-80 toward the 1.1800 level. Cable is also moderately higher, though, like EURUSD, remains comfortably below its high from yesterday. Focus remains on the U.S. tax overhaul bill, with the House expected to vote on it today and the Senate tomorrow, with indications suggesting that a successful passage is on. The December German Ifo business climate survey is also due later.

Main Macro Events Today

 

  • German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – nudge higher to 107.5 after the surprise uptick in December PMIs and ongoing positive trends in manufacturing orders.
  • EU Labour cost- Expectations – 2.0% from 0.8% in Q2.
  • US Housing Starts – Expectations – 1.250 mln after the 13.7% October jump to 1.290 mln.
  • FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks


Charts of the Day

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 20th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th December 2017.

2017-12-20_9-32-34.jpg

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed. Japanese markets managed to pick up as banks benefited from the sharp rise in Treasury yields yesterday. The U.S. tax vote failed to spark a firework on markets, but after the sharp uptick in long interest rates across major markets yesterday and in Asia overnight hopes of a recovering in earnings for financial stocks have been underpinning equities and U.S. stock futures are also up. UK100 futures meanwhile are in the red however. Treasury yields meanwhile dipped slightly from Tuesdays highs in overnight trade and Bund futures moved up from lows. Today’s calendar has seen German PPI inflation down two ticks at 0.1% as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey. Sweden’s Riksbank meanwhile is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at -0.50% today.

US Tax Bill: The US Senate has approved the most sweeping overhaul of the US tax system in more than three decades.The House of Representatives earlier approved the bill comfortably. Republicans have majorities in both houses of Congress. For final approval the legislation must go back to the House on today for a procedural issue. If it passes, as expected, it will be President Donald Trump’s first major legislative triumph. Critics say the package is a deficit-bloating giveaway to the super-rich.

U.S. Data Reports:  Revealed a solid November housing starts report that lifted already encouraging prospects for the Q4-Q1 housing sector, alongside a big unexpected drop in the Q3 current account deficit. For housing, November strength was skewed toward single family starts and activity in the disaster-riddled south and west, and the 3.3% headline starts rise included a solid 1.0% rise in starts under construction after upward revisions that lifted our Q4 real residential construction growth estimate to 10% from 9%, though we still expect a Q4 GDP growth rate of 2.5% after a Q3 growth boost to 3.4% from 3.3%. For the current account, the deficit fell in Q3 to just $100.6 bln from $124.4 (was $123.1) bln, thanks to a big rise in the surplus on primary income and a big drop in the secondary deficit, alongside an expected narrowing in the goods deficit and a slight widening in the service surplus.

Fedspeak: Fed dovish dissenter Kashkari repeated his warnings from Monday in the wake of the FOMC decision that there remains slack in the labour market and the Fed should not raise rates. He also noted in a Q&A session that local regulations are driving up the cost of housing and hurting affordable housing.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Carney Speech – The Governor is due to testify on the November Financial Stability Report (FSR) before the UK’s Treasury Select Committee. Scheduled to strt at 13:15 GMT.

New Zealand GDP – The December Quarter GDP figure is expected to show a decline form 0.8% in September down to 0.6%.  Data is reported at 21:45 GMT and is the first GDP posting since the new government was elected and the new head of the RBNZ was announced.

Charts of the Day

2017-12-20_9-45-15.gif

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 21st December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st December 2017.

2017-12-21_9-22-16.jpg

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets again traded mixed, with the boost from U.S. tax cuts quickly evaporating. Nikkei and ASX declined, Hang Seng and CSI 300 moved higher, as the BoJ left policy unchanged in the final meeting of the year. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are marginally higher as markets start to prepare for the long holiday weekend and the year end comes in sight. A EUR clearly above 1.18 against the dollar is doing little to boost the DAX as ECB asset purchases wind down today only to resume at much lower levels in January. Long yields continued to trade higher in Asia, but European yields managed to close off intraday lows on Wednesday and Treasury yields are down, so some stabilisation in quieter markets. U.K. consumer confidence dipped in December and today’s calendar still has French business confidence, as well as U.K. public finance data. Catalonia’s regional election will provide some interest although first results won’t be out until after the European close.

German house price inflation: Data shows a slight cooling, with the annual rate in the Europace home price index falling back to 5.9% from 6.2% in the previous month. Prices still rose 0.7% m/m, up from 0.3% m/m in October and the annual index for apartment remained at a very strong 7.8% y/y. The ECB continues to insist that there are no signs of wide spread asset price bubbles, but the German housing markets clearly is showing signs of strain with prices in some areas significantly overvalued. Draghi is relying on national regulators to try and deal with the issue, but in light of the last housing bubbles and crisis there remain concerns whether this will be sufficient if the ECB continues pump cash in an already overheating market.

U.S. Data Reports:  The 5.6% U.S. November existing home sales surge to a cycle-high 5.81 mln pace beat estimates, following rates of 5.50 (was 5.48) mln in October and 5.37 mln in September, as sales climb above the 5.70 mln prior cycle-high rate last March. Sales in the south, which include hurricane sites in both Texas and Florida, soared 8.3% in November after a 1.9% rise in October, but declines of 1.4% (was 1.4%) in September and 5.7% in August. We saw a 0.8% November rise for the median price, but a 7.2% drop for inventories. We expect growth rates for existing home sales of a robust 20% in Q4 and a flat figure in Q1 as we partly give back the Q4 spike, after contraction rates of 12% in Q3 and 4% in Q2. Existing home sales are on track for just a 2% rise in 2017 and an estimated 3% rise in 2018, following gains of 3.9% in 2016 and 6.5% in 2015, but a 2.9% 2014 post “taper-tantrum” drop. We have cyclical increases of 68% for existing home sales and 43% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 154% for new home sales, 171% for housing starts, and 153% for permits. The housing sector is well positioned for 2018, though growth in “existers” has been slim.

Main Macro Events Today

Final Q3 GDP  – Expectations are for Q3 GDP to be confirmed at 3.3% following the impacts of the hurricanes feeding through, however, some estimates have a tick up to 3.4% and revisions for Q2 up to 3.2%. The data (along with Weekly Job Claims and PCE)  is released at 13:30 GMT and is likely to have the biggest impact on the USD today.

Canadian CPI – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2.% in November after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. But the CPI is seen surging to a 2.0% y/y rate in November from 1.4% in October, due to a difficult comparison with a low index level in November of last year (CPI fell 0.4% m/m in November of 2016). Gasoline prices surged in November compared to October, which is expected to drive total month comparable CPI growth. The loonie was weaker in November versus October, which could weigh on prices of imported goods. But gas prices shine the brightest, leaving the risk to the upside. The core measures were mixed in October. The CPI trim was up 1.5% y/y, matching September’s 1.5% gain. The CPI common grew 1.6% y/y versus a 1.5% increase. The CPI median slowed to 1.7% y/y from 1.8%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 22nd December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd December 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global equity rally continued in Asia overnight, after banks and energy companies underpinned gains on Wall Street yesterday. The Nikkei rose 0.16% after the cabinet approval of a budget plan that includes extra stimulus spending. The Hang Seng is up 0.34%, helped by developers. In Europe the FTSE 100 managed record highs yesterday and closed with a gain of more than 1%, but stock futures are suggesting a correction today. In the Eurozone the election victory of Catalonia’s Separatists weighed on the EUR and is likely to hit Spanish markets, after the outperformance of the IBEX yesterday. The ECB halts its bond buying from today for the quiet holiday period and trading is likely to wind down as the year end comes into view. Today the calendar holds French PPI, consumer spending and final Q3 GDP as well as the Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italian sentiment data and the final reading of U.K. Q3 GDP.

German GfK consumer confidence: Improved to 10.8 in the projected January reading. The breakdown for November, when confidence held steady at 10.7 showed an improvement in business cycle expectations, but more importantly income expectations, but despite this the willingness to buy declined slightly as the willingness to save turned less negative. Still overall a positive number that suggests consumption will continue to underpin overall growth, as the labour market continues to improve and wage growth picks up.

German import price inflation: Accelerated to 2.7% y/y in November, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month. the data were in line with our forecast, but a tad above Bloomberg consensus, as higher energy price inflation lifted the annual rate. Without oil prices would have risen just 0.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y, so despite the uptick in the headline rate something for Draghi to argue with as underlying inflation remains modest, although in the three months trend rate the reading excluding energy turned positive for the first time since May.

U.S. Data Reports: U.S. House passed a short-term, stop-gap spending bill by a vote of 231-188. The bill, which still must be approved by the Senate, would avert a government shutdown on Friday, and would fund the government through January 19. This bill would maintain he same spending levels currently mandated. It would also allow for $4.5 bln in emergency funding for missile defense, as well as money for various healthcare programs, including $2.85 bln for CHIP, the Children’s Health Insurance Program. The bill also included a waiver for the automatic spending cuts that would kick in under PAYGO, and that would allow President Trump to sign the tax reform bill just passed. The revised U.S. Q3 GDP data imply a Q3 productivity growth trimming to 2.8% from 3.0%, after a Q2 rate of 1.5%, with output growth of a revised 3.9% (was 4.1%) in Q3 after a 3.9% Q2 pace. We expect Q3 hourly compensation growth of an unrevised 2.7% after a 0.3% rate in Q2. The mix should leave a flat (was -0.2%) Q3 unit labor cost figure after a 1.2% Q2 drop. We expect unrevised hours-worked growth of 1.1% in Q3 after a 2.4% Q2 clip. We expect personal income growth of 4.1% in Q4 as income is pushed into 2018 from 2017 in anticipation of tax cuts, as seen last year, following an unrevised 2.8% rate in Q3. Disposable income should grow at a 4.1% in Q4 after a 2.1% (was 2.0%) rate in Q3. The savings rate should fall to a cycle-low 2.9% in Q4 with a monthly cycle-low that we peg at 2.5% in December as bonuses are delayed to January, from 3.3% in Q3 and 3.7% in Q2, versus a prior cycle-low 3.6% in Q4 of last year. We saw a 3-year high of 6.2% back in Q2 of 2015.


Main Macro Events Today 
 

  • US Durable Goods – Expectations are for a significant increase in the headline figure to 2.0% from a revise -0.8% last time but the key core figure is expected to slip to 0.5% from 0.9% last time. With CAD data also at 13:30 there could be interesting movements on the USDCAD pair again today like we saw yesterday following the US GDP miss and strong Canadian data.
  • Canadian GDP – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2% (m/m, sa). Wholesale volumes were also good news for GDP, rebounding 1.2% in October after the 1.0% tumble in September. The growth in retail sales and wholesale shipment is a welcome contrast with the 1.5% plunge in October manufacturing shipment volumes. Housing starts grew 1.9% to a 222.8k unit pace in October from 218.7k in September, suggestive of a positive contribution from construction. The outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive: Energy exports rose 2.7% in October after a 3.6% gain in September and a 1.7% increase in August. The manufacturing report’s measure of petroleum and coal shipments rose 2.2% in October after a 9.7% gain in September. We expect GDP to improve to a 2.6% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from 1.7% in Q3, which would be right in line with the BoC’s 2.5% estimate from the October MPR.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 27nd December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27nd December 2017.


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FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Markets in Europe re-open after the Christmas holiday weekend, but trading will by quiet. Wall Street closed fractionally lower on Tuesday, while long Treasury yields declined. In Europe, peripheral yields are likely to remain volatile as the ECB halted purchases over the holiday period, with thin market conditions apt to amplify movements. The economic calendar is quiet today. Preliminary inflation data for December is due out of both Germany and Spain on Friday, where we expect headline rates falling back again after the spike in November, which was mainly driven by base effects from energy prices. An abatement in inflation would back Draghi’s commitment to ongoing asset purchases, although with the output gap closing faster than anticipated, the ECB’s guidance should gradually change over the coming months, with the focus shifting from net purchases to maintaining the stock of assets, and eventually rates.

FX Update: The dollar has been trading with a soft tilt, with USDJPY edging out a four-session low at 113.12, EURUSD a four-session high at 1.1884, and USDCAD making three-week low and AUDUSD a two-month high, at 0.7750. This has come despite robust producer sentient data yesterday out of the U.S., along with the expected fiscal stimulus to come after the passing of the U.S. tax overhaul bill last week. London and other key interbank centres reopen today, though staffing levels and client activity will remain very low until next Tuesday. The calendar is very lightly in Europe and North America today, highlighted by UK mortgage data, an Italian bond sale, and U.S. consumer confidence data.

U.S. Reports: revealed another two robust producer sentiment readings for December that provide a prelude to a renewed sentiment updraft into 2018 with the new tax law, alongside a 0.2% October rise in the S&P Case Shiller home price index that bucked seasonal price restraint to leave a rise in the y/y gain to 6.4% from 6.2%. For the Dallas Fed, we saw a rise to an 11-year high of 29.7, from 19.4 in November and a prior 11-year high of 27.6 in October. For the Richmond Fed, we saw a drop-back to a 20 reading in December that marks the second strongest figure since December of 2010, from an all-time high of 30.0 in November, with an employment index pop to a new cycle-high. Both measures have shown little moderation from the big hurricane rebuilding lift starting in September, and the ISM-adjusted level of all the major sentiment indexes is rising back to 58 from 57 in November.

Main Macro Events Today

* Swiss ZEW Survey – Credit Swiss Economic Expectations will be released at 09:00 GMT

* US Pending Home Sales- The NAR pending home sales index is expected to ease to -0.5% in November from 3.5%.

* Japanese Retail Trade – November retail sales are seen bouncing to -0.6% from -0.7% for large retailers, and to 1.2% y/y from -0.2% overall.


Charts of the Day

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official

Date : 8th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th January 2017.


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FX News Today

The start of the year 2018 is off to a bang with the “snow bomb” and freeze on the East Coast of the U.S., along with the start of the MiFID financial regulation in Europe and fresh record highs right out of the gate on equities around the globe. That’s kept yields pressured higher, but continues to do few favors for the dollar, even as gold and Bitcoin rebounded. Headline U.S. nonfarm payrolls disappointed elevated expectations, but the guts of the report remained solid.

United States: The economic calendar will home in on inflation data and retail sales following the miss on the headline December payrolls print last week. Consumer credit kicks off the week(Monday) with an $18.0 bln increase forecast for November vs $20.5 bln previously. Second tier NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings (Tuesday) are on tap next. MBA mortgage market data (Wednesday) is due, along with import prices seen +0.2% in December and export prices flat. Wholesale sales may increase 0.8% in November, while inventories rise 0.7%(Wednesday), with EIA energy inventory data on deck as well. Headline PPI may dip 0.1% in December vs 0.4% (Thursday),while core is expected at 0.2% vs 0.1%. Initial jobless claims are projected (Thursday) to drop 15k to 235k for the January 6 week and the Treasury budget gap is set to widen to -$52.0 bln in December vs -$28 bln a year-ago. Headline CPI is forecast to increase 0.2% in December vs 0.4% (Friday), while core is set to rise 0.2% vs 0.1% — leaving core y/y at 1.7%. Also on tap are December retail sales, which is forecast to rise 0.3% vs 0.8%, while increasing 0.4% ex-auto. Lastly is business inventories that should rise 0.3% in November vs -0.1%.

Fedspeak resumes in full force with a trio of Atlanta’s Bostic, SF’s Williams and Boston’s Rosengren (Monday). Bostic will be speaking on the economy and policy, while the other two will be taking part in a Brookings event on the 2% inflation target. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari will participate in a Q&A session(Tuesday), followed by Chicago’s Evans. St. Louis’s Bullard and Dallas’s Kaplan appear (Wednesday), who will be speaking on the economy and policy. NY Fed’s Dudley will deliver a keynote address on the 2018 economic outlook (Thursday) and Rosengren will return (Friday) to discuss the outlook as well.

Canada: The final bit of economic data are due this week before the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) January 17 announcement and Monetary Policy Report next week. The calendar is front-loaded, with the BoC’s business outlook survey for Q4 due Monday and December housing starts due Tuesday.Building permits are outWednesday. The decidedly second tier November new home price index and December Teranet National HPI are scheduled forThursday and Friday, respectively. The BoC’s business outlook survey will finalize expectations for the BoC next week.

Europe: Strong growth and still low inflation remain the main features of the Eurozone economy, and with the ECB still glossing over the cracks of the Eurozone system long yields remain low also in peripheral countries. Political risks will continue to dominate over the next couple of months as the Italian general election on March 4 comes into view, Germany’s struggle to find a stable government continues and Brexit talks go into the second round. German Nov manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen down -0.3% m/m , but after a rise of 0.5% m/m in the previous month. and with a still strong trend suggesting ongoing robust demand in the manufacturing sector. Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence is seen picking up slightly to 114.8 from 114.6, after the preliminary consumer confidence data came in higher than anticipated and PMI readings also improved at the end of last year. Germany will release a preliminary estimate for full year 2017 GDP(Thursday). Growth last year was much stronger than anticipated and the output gap is closing faster than expected, with PMI reports already suggesting that the manufacturing sector is running into capacity constraints, thus backing expectations for a gradual change in the ECB’s forward guidance in coming months, with the current QE program likely to be the last and net asset purchases expected to be phased out in the last quarter of the year. Ahead of the full year GDP numbers. The calendar also holds German trade data (Tuesday) and French production numbers (Wednesday) for November, as well as Italian and overall Eurozone production data(Wednesday) with the latter seen up 0.5% m/m. Growth remains robust, but so far inflation data has failed to move any closer to target and final December HICP readings from France and Spain are expected to confirm preliminary readings and not bring any surprises.

UK: Sterling markets have been lacking strong leads so far this year. Unexpected weakness in the December manufacturing and construction PMI surveys were offset by a firmer than expected PMI reading for the dominant service sector. The ONS stats office reported an encouraging tick higher in UK productivity, though to little impact. Brexit-related news or developments, meanwhile, have been thin so soon after the holiday period. Formal negotiations with the EU on a post-Brexit trading relationship are due to start in March.This week’s UK calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the private BRC retail sales survey for December(Tuesday) along with November production and trade data(Wednesday). The BoE MPC’s next policy meeting will take place on February 7th-8th, where a no change decision is widely anticipated. The BoE will then also publish its latest quarterly inflation report, with updated growth and inflation projections.

Japan: is on holiday Monday observing Coming of Age Day. December consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to improve to 45.5 from 44.9. November current account data (Friday) should show the surplus narrowing to JPY 1,900 bln from 2,176 bln.

China: December CPI and PPI are due (Wednesday) with the former seen rising to a 2.0% y/y pace from 1.7%, while the latter slows to 5.0% y/y from 5.8% previously. December loan growth and new yuan loans are also tentatively due (Wednesday) with the latter forecast at CNY 900.0 bln from 1,120 bln in November. The December trade report (Friday) should reveal a narrowed surplus of $37.0 bln from $40.2 bln in November.

Australia: Australia building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to dip 0.5% in November after the 0.9% gain in October. ANZ job ads for December are also due Tuesday. November retail sales(Thursday) are seen rising 0.3% after the 0.5% increases in October. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s docket is clear this week. Indeed, the Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6. No change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 9th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2017.


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FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher overnight. The Hang Seng headed for an 11th straight gain, led by property developers and energy producers and moving closer to the record levels, Japanese indices were underpinned by electronics makers and chemicals, despite a stronger Yen, with the Nikkei closing up 0.57%. FTSE 100 futures are also up, but U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, as Treasury yields rise in tandem with most long yields in Asia. Only China’s 20-year declined again, while Japan’s 10-year gained 1.1 bp and the 10-year Treasury 0.6 bp. European yields headed broadly south yesterday, despite gains on stock markets, but global movements suggest a corrections in bonds. The data calendar today has German trade and production numbers at the start of the session, as well as French trade and Eurozone jobless numbers.

German Nov industrial production jumped 3.4% m/m in November, a much stronger than expected rebound after two months of decline that left the annual rate at 5.6% y/y, up from 2.8% y/y in October and highlighting the strength of the manufacturing sectors in particular. Manufacturing orders may have disappointed in November, but the underlying trend remains strong, while surveys point to ongoing optimism about the outlook that is underpinning job creation and will likely feed into wage deals. German trade surplus widens as exports jump.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.4 bln in November, up from 19.9 bln in the previous month, as exports rose 4.1% m/m, outpacing the 2.3% m/m rise in imports. The three months trend improved further indicating that net exports underpinned overall growth in the last quarter of 2017, although accumulated data for the first 11 months of 2017 show that surpluses in both current account and trade actually declined slightly compared to the corresponding period 2016, highlighting that for once this was not an export led German recovery, but rather than improving global growth is also benefiting German exports, while the strong EUR is helping to keep the import bill down.

Charts of the Day

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Official
Date : 10th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock rally started to fade in Asia with a stronger Yen and higher global yields weighing. The BoJ’s implicit tapering and the ECB’s reduced monthly purchase targets acted as a reminder that central bank support is slowly being phased out and Japanese indices headed south. The ASX 200 was also down, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 were underpinned, by data and as China’s central bank weakened its daily fixing on the yuan by the most since September. Yields continued to rise and the Japanese 10-year is up 1.9 bp and the 10-year Treasury yield up 1.7 bp, but South Korea is leading the way as safe haven flows are being reversed slowly. FTSE 100 futures as well as U.S. futures are heading south and against that background European stock markets are likely to retreat, and bonds are likely to remain under pressure ahead of supply from Italy and Germany today. The calendar has industrial production data out of France and the U.K. as well as U.K. trade numbers.

FX Update: The dollar has traded steady-to-firmer, overall. EURUSD has remained heavy, meeting good selling interest above 1.1950, though so far remaining above yesterday’s 12-day low at 1.1915. Cable and AUDUSD have been seeing similar price actions, aided by the spike in U.S. Treasury yields over the last day, while the dialogue between North and South Korea has seen a rotation out of haven assets and currencies. USDJPY has declined for a second consecutive day, logging an eight-day low of 112.16. The move has been driven by broader yen gains, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, among other yen crosses, also down. Market participants have been continuing to digest the BoJ’s QE tapering announcement of yesterday, despite some market narratives downplaying the taping move has being little more than a baby step, with the central bank likely to remain committed to its YCC (yield curve control) policy in the face of the chronic undershooting of the inflation target.

Main Macro Events Today 

 
  • UK Manufacturing Production – expected to rise to 0.3%m/m from 0.1%m/m and to fall to 2.8%y/y from 3.9%y/y. Industrial production expected to rise 0.5% m/m and 1.9% y/y.
  • UK Goods Trade Balance
  • Canadian Building Permits – Building permit values are expected to rise 1.0% m/m in November after the 3.5% gain in October.
  • Crude Oil Inventories & US Imports – MBA mortgage market data is due, along with import prices seen +0.2% in December and export prices flat (median 0.3%). EIA energy inventory data are on deck as well.
Charts of the Day

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Support and Resistance Levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
 

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Official

Date : 11th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.


[IMG]

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly lower, yields are coming down after the sharp move higher in recent days and 10-year JGBs shed -1.1 bp while Treasury yields are down 2.0 bp at 2.537%. Global equity indices have reached levels that raised concerns of overheating, while a number of bond auctions added to the uptick in yields yesterday. But while Germany under-subscribed 10-year auction yesterday spooked investors, strong demand in the USD 20 bln 10-year Treasury auction helped to calm nerves and saw yields heading sound again. Losses on Asian stock markets meanwhile were modes. The Nikkei closed down -0.33%, U.S. futures are narrowly mixed and UK100 futures are moving higher and with the EUR holding below 1.20 against the Dollar, the GER30 may be able to recover somewhat after under-performing yesterday, as full year 2017 GDP estimates are likely to show very strong growth, while Bund futures are likely to open higher.

FX Update: The dollar is firmer after China rebutted yesterday’s Bloomberg story alleging that it was pondering a reduction on U.S. Treasury purchases. USD-JPY broke a run of three consecutive declines, which printed a seven-week low at 111.27 yesterday, in recouping to the upper 111.0s. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that the Bloomberg report was based on “false” information. The remark saw the yield on the 10-year T-note tick lower while giving the dollar a lift. The narrow trade-weighted USD index recovered to within a few pips of 92.47 after seeing a low of 91.92 yesterday. EUR-USD has ebbed back under 1.1950 after yesterday foraying above 1.2000 in the wake of the Bloomberg story. Market participants will now return focus on incoming fundamental leads while continuing to digest this week’s BoJ tapering of its QE program.

Main Macro Events Today 
 

  • BOE Credit Conditions Survey
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • Canadian NHPI – November new home price index expected at 0.2%m/m from 0.1% m/m.
  • US PPI & Unemployment claims – Headline PPI may dip 0.2% in December vs 0.4%, while core is expected at 0.2% vs 0.3%. Initial jobless claims are projected to drop 5k to 245k for the January 5 week.

Charts of the Day

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Support and Resistance Levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex



Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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