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Date : 7th January 2015



EURUSD PREPARING TO TEST THE 1.18 LEVEL AFTER NEGATIVE CPI FROM THE EUROZONE AND BETTER THAN EXPECTED ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE REPORT FROM THE UNITED STATES.



EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1889. The Final Services PMI in the Eurozone came out closed to the market expectations at 51.6. The same report from the United States followed and also came close to the market expectations at a reading of 53.3. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI failed to meet the market expectations and came out at a reading of 56.2 in December.


bullandbear-blog.jpg



Data released today pushed to EURUSD even lower. The CPI Flash Estimate year over year report from the Eurozone came out at a reading of -0.2 percent. That’s the first time since 2009 where the Eurozones’s CPI declines. A report from the United States pressurized the single European currency after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out better than the market expectations at a reading of 241K.


While the EURUSD is looking to potentially break the 1.18 level investors are looking forward for the FOMC Meeting Minutes due later today.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1817 and resistance is seen at 1.1936.


EURUSD-07-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 8th January 2015



EURUSD KEEPS PRINTING NEW LOWS IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. THE US UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS REPORT DUE TODAY.



EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1838. The Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone dropped -0.2 percent on an annual basis in December. The fall of the prices for a 2nd consecutive month might pressurize the European Central Bank to start its stimulus program immediately.


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The FOMC Meeting Minutes showed that most of the Fed officials agreed that the central bank do not consider increasing rates before April 2015. The Trade Balance in the United States came out better than expected at -39.0B in November 2014. The positive tone for the US dollar was also confirmed by the better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report which came out 241K in December against the expected reading of 227K.


Investors are now looking forward for the Unemployment Claims report.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1763 and resistance is seen at 1.1889.


EURUSD-08-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 9th January 2015



EURUSD TRADING FLAT AHEAD OF THE US NON-FARM PAYROLLS REPORT.



EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1792. The single European currency came under pressure after the German Factory Orders dropped 2.4 percent on a monthly basis in November. On the other hand the Retail Sales data from the Eurozone came out better than expected recording a gain of 0.6 percent in November.


Data from the United States indicated that the Unemployment Claims during the last week were 294K which was close to the market expectations of a reading of 291K and less than the previous week’s report of 298K.


Investors are now looking forward for the US Non-Farm Employment Change report and the Unemployment rate data. The possibility of high volatility on the market prior and after the releases exists and investors should be fully aware of it.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1763 and resistance is seen at 1.1889.


EURUSD-09-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 12th January 2015



EURUSD TRADING NEAR THE LOWS IN THE LATE EUROPEAN SESSION. LIGHT ECONOMIC CALENDAR TODAY.



EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.1840. The German Industrial Production dropped on a monthly basis coming at a reading of 0.1 percent in November. The Unemployment Rate in the United States fell to a 15-year low level of 5.6 percent in December. The Non-Farm Payrolls surprised the investors coming better than the market expectations with a gain of 252K in December. The Wholesale Inventories also followed the positive tone registering a rise of 0.8 percent.


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The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Richmond, Jeffrey Lacker expressed his optimism about the US economy and projected a rise of the GDP from 2.5 to 3 percent in 2015.


On the other hand the President of the Federal Reserve in Chicago, Charles Evans stated that even as the labor market continues to show considerable progress the current inflation and the inflation outlook remain low and Fed should avoid increasing rates until 2016.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1763 and resistance is seen at 1.1889.


EURUSD-12-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 13th January 2015



EURUSD TRADING NEAR THE 1.1800 LEVEL AFTER PUSHING HIGHER IN THE ASIAN SESSION.



EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1833. The European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny stated that the central bank should act soon rather than later to boost the economic growth and inflation in the currency union. Nowotny also added that the policymakers are discussing steps including bond buying in order to spur the growth in the region. It is also widely expected that the ECB will announce a launch of the QE program as early as 21st January, as consumer prices in the EU are into deflationary territory according to the preliminary data that was released.


During his speech yesterday the President of the United States Federal Reserve in Atlanta Dennis Lockhart indicated that the sees the US economy moving ahead in its recovery. Lockhart added that he sees the potential increase in the interest rates in the middle of 2015.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1763 and resistance is seen at 1.1889.


EURUSD-12-January-2015-0.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 14th January 2015



EURUSD DROPS BELOW 1.1747 WHILE ECB CONTINUES TO DISCUSS THE QE PROGRAM. US RETAIL SALES DATA DUE TODAY.



EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1771. Data released yesterday showed that the German Wholesale Price Index dropped 1.0 percent on a monthly basis in December. On the other hand the Industrial Production in Italy rose 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in November beating the market expectations of a 0.1 percent rise.


In the United States the NFIB Small Business Index rose to a level of 100.4 in December. Another report revealed that the JOLTS Job Openings advanced to a reading of 4.97M in November.


Fotolia_5930319_XS.jpg



The World Bank increased the economic growth forecast for the United States to 3.2 percent from 3.0 percent projected earlier, while downgrading the Eurozone economic growth forecast to 1.1 percent from the 1.8 percent projected earlier.


Investors are now looking forward for the Retail Sales data due to be released from the United States later today.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1734 and resistance is seen at 1.1870.


EURUSD-14-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 15th January 2015



A HISTORICAL DAY FOR THE FOREX MARKET – EURUSD DROPPED BELOW 1.1600 AFTER SNB REMOVED THE 1.20 PEG.



EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.1789. The European Court of Justice ruled that the ECB bond buying program was legitimate once certain conditions were met. Basically the ruling cleared the obstacle in front of the program and the QE might be launched when ECB decides.


Data from the United States revealed that the dropped 0.9 percent in December. The Core Retail Sales recorded a drop of 1.0 percent.


The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Philadelphia Charles Plosser urged the central bank to hike the interest rates soon, citing the improvements in the US economic conditions.


Fotolia_32973386_XS.jpg



During the European session today the Swiss National Bank decided to remove the peg from the 1.20 level on the EURCHF. The release shocked the markets and caused large moves on a large number of currency pairs sending EURUSD below the 1.1600 level.


Reports released from the United States indicated that the Unemployment Claims rose slightly during the last week to 316K. On the other hand the Core PPI and the Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised the markets with better than expected performance.


Investors are now looking forward for the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the speech of the Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann due later today.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1660 and resistance is seen at 1.1825.


EURUSD-15-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 16th January 2015



EURUSD TRADING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE EUROZONE’S FINAL CPI DATA.



EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1632. The Trade Balance in the Eurozone increased to 20 Billion Euro in November. Data from the United States indicated that the initial jobless claims rose to 316K during the last week. On the other hand the Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to a level of 10 in January.


The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren opined that he is not confident about the US moving towards the 2 percent inflation target and urged the central bank to remain patient about increasing the interest rates.


Investors are now looking forward for the Final CPI data from the Eurozone and the CPI data from the United States. Later on the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due to be released from the United States.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1583 and resistance is seen at 1.1740.


EURUSD-16-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 19th January 2015



EURUSD REMAINS STABLE IN THE QUIET EUROPEAN SESSION SO FAR. US BANKS CLOSED DUE TO THE OBSERVANCE OF THE MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY.



EURUSD dropped on Friday and closed at 1.1563. The CPI in the Eurozone dropped 0.2 percent on an annual basis in December. Inflation remained below the 2 percent target of the European Central Bank for a 22nd consecutive month.


Data from the United States revealed that the consumer prices in the US dropped 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in December. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Minneapolis Narayana Kocherlakota warned the US central bank against risk of raising the interest rate prematurely. He also urged Fed to consider the inflation data before thinking of moving forward with the interest rate increase.


On the other hand the President of Fed in St. Louis James Bullard reiterated that Fed should raise the interest rates by the end of the first quarter of 2015. His view was also supported by the San Fracisco Fed President John Williams who expressed confidence in the job market and the inflation outlook.


The US banks are closed today due to the observance of the Martin Luther King Day.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1490 and resistance is seen at 1.1646.


EURUSD-19-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 20th January 2015



EURUSD STABLE AFTER BETTER THAN EXPECTED GERMAN ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT RELEASE.



EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.1606. The Current Account in the Eurozone dropped to 18.1B in November.


Early this morning the International Monetary Fund cut the economic growht forecast for the Eurozone to 1.2 percent in 2015 from the previous estimate of 1.3 percent. On the other hand the growth forecast for the United States was revised up to 3.6 percent from the previous forecast of 3.1 percent, due to the robust private domestic demand according to the IMF.


Fotolia_14069781_XS.jpg



Investors are now looking forward for the speech of the FOMC member Jerome Powell at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC due later today.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1490 and resistance is seen at 1.1646.


EURUSD-20-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 21th January 2015


EURUSD TRADING SIDEWAYS IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. US BUILDING PERMITS DATA DUE TO BE RELEASED TODAY.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1549. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to a reading of 48.4 in January surprising the market participants. The ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone followed the positive tone and also recorded a rise to a reading of 45.2.


Data from the United States indicated that the NAHB Housing Market Index unexpectedly dropped to a reading of 57.0 in January.


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During his speech in Washington DC the FOMC Member Jerome Powell condemned the manipulation of benchmark interest rates like the LIBOR and called for further regulatory measures to prevent such rigging and restore the public confidence in the financial system.


Investors are now looking forward for the Building Permits data due from the United States later today.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1490 and resistance is seen at 1.1646.


EURUSD-21-January-2015.jpg


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 23rd January 2015


EURUSD DROPPED NEAR THE 1.1100 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE US SESSION.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.1360. During the ECB Press Conference the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi announced the start of the QE program. He stated that ECB will purchase 60 billion EUR per month worth of securities including investment grade sovereign bonds starting from the beginning of March and currently scheduled to September 2016. The European Central Bank decided to keep the interest rate steady at 0.05 percent.


Data from the United States revealed that the Unemployment Claims dropped to 307K during the last week. Another report indicated that the House Price Index in the US rose 0.8 percent from the 0.4 percent registered during the previous month.


EURUSD-23-January-2015.jpg


During the European session today the single European currency registered another sharp drop registering lows near the 1.1100 level.


Investors should be aware that the premature parliamentary elections in Greece on Sunday may bring volatility on the market during the market open.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1114 and resistance is seen at 1.1374.


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 27th January 2015



EURUSD TRADING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE US CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REPORT.



EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.1237. Data released yesterday showed that the German Ifo Business Climate rose to a level of 106.7 in January reaching a 6-month high.


The afternoon will be dominated by releases from the United States including the Core Durable Goods Orders, The CB Consumer Confidence and the New Home Sales data. The ECOFIN Meetings are also taking place today in Brussels.


Fotolia_18465248_XS.jpg



Investors should be fully aware that any potential information regarding the situation in Greece might bring volatility on the market.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.1135 and resistance is seen at 1.1344.


EURUSD-27-January-2015.jpg



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 4th February 2015



EURUSD AT A RESISTANCE LEVEL, BUT POTENTIAL SUPPORT IS NEAR.



Now that the Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted lower from a historical resistance area and EURUSD (the heaviest component in the DXY) has created a narrow range bar in the weekly time frame we have potential in EURUSD for a larger than usual corrective move against the trend. The narrow range candle signals that supply and demand where in balance last week, something that doesn’t sit well with those holding on to their shorts. We’ve also had the pair moving outside the trend channel that used to contain the move. This increases the likelihood that we will get a larger than usual contra trend move. Oscillators are oversold but edging higher with price crossing above the lower Bollinger Bands. Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%) coincide with the resistance levels I have identified in the chart.


EURUSD-d.png


EURUSD, Daily


I wrote on Monday after the Syriza election victory in Greece: “I find it significant that EURUSD, although it is still in a downtrend, has not moved significantly lower on the news Syriza winning the Greek elections. Rather it is ticking higher after the smallish initial drop… Market reactions are important as was proven with my analysis with Gold. A positive reaction to a news item that should have been negative for Gold hinted that it was time to buy the yellow metal, regardless all the negative fundamental analysis available at the time. This proved to be exactly the right time to buy Gold. Now, this same logic when combined with technical analysis could provide us with a trade opportunity in Euro against weaker currencies”. The price action on that day resulted in a hammer bar and the price has moved higher ever since, proving once again that the market reaction to the news is more important than the news itself. Price has reached a resistance level at 1.1540 and Stochastics is getting into overbought area. This has stalled the advance. We have a support level at 1.1368 and the next resistance area coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci level is at 1.1755, fairly close to the upper Bollinger Bands.


EURUSD, 240 min


Price moved outside the regression channel before Greek elections and has now made an over shoot in the opposite direction. A shooting star candle at the 1.1540 resistance indicates selling pressure but there has not been much downside momentum after the candle was created. Stochastics indicate that the momentum is reversing. The nearest support level is at 1.1368.



EURUSD-4h.png


Conclusion:


The narrow range candle in the weekly time frame signals that supply and demand where in balance last week, something that doesn’t sit well with those holding on to their shorts. We’ve also had the pair moving outside the trend channel that used to contain the move. This increases the likelihood that we will get a larger than usual contra trend move.


EURUSD is overbought in terms of Stochastics in the 4h chart and signals that there is potentially a momentum reversal taking place. However, the downside momentum after the shooting star candle has been sluggish. This could be explained by the 1.1368 support being relatively close. Price can turn lower from here but the shorts trades are likely to be short lived with a daily support area being so close. This might put off some market participants and limit the downside potential from these levels. The 1.1755 is likely to be a better level for high probability trades as several technical factors coincide in the proximity of this level.


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

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Date : 5th February 2015



INCREASED VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL



The price of oil has collapsed with the strengthening dollar and has reached levels that were last seen in the later stages of the financial crisis in 2008. This suggests that the current levels are deeply oversold both fundamentally and technically. The world economy is certainly slowing down but it is in a better shape than it was in the first quarter of 2009 when the US Crude Oil futures dropped to $33.35. Therefore, it makes sense to expect Crude Oil to be relatively close to the levels it could find a bottom.



CL-D-2009.png


Crude Oil, Daily 2009


Over the last 30 years it has taken in average 2 to 3 months for oil to bottom out after a major downside move. It would therefore be safe to assume that the bottoming process will provide us with plenty of opportunities to join the long side, or to scale into long positions thus lowering the timing related risks. In terms of price velocity the downward move seen over the last few months has been similar to the one seen in 2008. When this downside move finally ended the market moved sideways for a period of time allowing low risk entries at Bollinger Bands.


XLE-Daily.png


XLE, Daily


I mentioned some time ago in my S&P 500 analysis that the energy sector etf is forming a bullish wedge and that this would be confirmed by a breakout. Now the breakout has happened and we have a higher low in place. This obviously signals that the market participants are turning bullish on energy related stocks, a clear indication that they believe that the downside in oil is in their view limited.


CL-W.png


Crude Oil, Weekly


The price of oil is close to the 2009 lows but is still inside a weekly downward trend channel. The latest reaction from a resistance level that coincided with the channel top was relatively strong. However, this kind of volatility is typical when prices get close to levels where the trend might turn. Last week the price closed inside the lower 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band for the first time since September 2014. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 43.58 and 53.60.


CL-D.png


Crude Oil, Daily


Price has broken out of the descending regression channel and created a higher high. If we now get a higher low the bullish indication is rather strong but even a roughly equal low would mean that the buyers are gaining control in this market. Volatility has definitely increased which is not only evidenced by the higher high but also by the Stochastic indicator it has not been in overbought territory since July last year.


CL-240-min.png


Crude Oil, 240 min


Price has retraced to 61.8% Fibonacci level that coincides with a descending trendline. Stochastic is oversold and the price is reacting higher from the lower Bollinger Bands.


Conclusion:


The increase in volatility at levels that are close to the bottoming formation from 2009 is a reason to pay attention to the price action in Crude Oil in the near future. This is confirmed by the bullish breakout in the US energy sector shares ETF (XLE). If this turns out to be the range in which the market bottoms then the best levels to be a buyer are those that are close to the bottom of the range. However, the fact that so many technical tools indicate support for Crude Oil in the 4h time frame we could look for intraday buy signals in the general area of current price action.



Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

Hotforex


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Date : 6th February 2015



GBPUSD MOVED PAST SEVERAL WEEKLY HIGHS



The pair has moved briskly past three weekly highs this week. The move comes after it formed what looks to be a higher weekly low now that the pair has closed above the resistance levels. This is the first time GBPUSD has been able to close above so many weekly highs since the downtrend began in July last year. Even though the weekly candle is still inside the regression channel such strength signals a turnaround in this pair. This is even more likely as the move comes from levels that were able to stop the decline and turn the market into an uptrend in 2013. Stochastics are edging higher and the support and resistance levels are: 1.4954 weekly low and 1.5541 weekly low in proximity of the 23.6% Fibonacci level.


GBPUSDdaily.png


GBPUSD, Daily


The pair has broken out of the descending regression channel. I tweeted yesterday that GBPUSD was at resistance and looking weak. The reasoning behind this was that the candle from day before was a shooting star candle and the hourly chart yesterday showed signs of momentum reversal just below the 1.5269 resistance and the daily Bollinger bands. These indications proved to be wrong and the price shot higher through the resistance. All this put together indicates that the market is pretty firmly in the hands of the bulls. The former resistance levels are now likely to be supports. The current support and resistance levels identified from the daily chart are: 1.4988, 1.5096, 1.5224, 1.5269 and 1.5487 1.5541. The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels coincide with 1.5269 support and 1.5487 resistances. Stochastics are getting into the overbought area.



GBPUSD60.png


GBPUSD, 60 min


The hourly trend is higher with price at the upper end of the bull channel. The 1.5269 coincides with the lower end of the channel and with the Bollinger Bands. In addition, the 23.6% Fibonacci level is also in the proximity of the channel bottom. The other potential levels are the Fibonacci retracements and the 1.5096 support level should there be a deeper retracement. It always pays to look for momentum reversal signals once price comes back to the levels.



Conclusion:


With such a show of strength the only logical conclusion is to look for buying opportunities until we have price action based evidence to the contrary. Retracements to support levels should be monitored for momentum reversal signals. Levels that have several technical factors supporting the trade idea are always more likely to provide us with good trade entries. In this regard the 1.5260 to 1.5270 region is interesting but should today’s US Non-Farm Payroll figure deviate strongly from the expectations then we could see increased volatility and the lower levels could come into play. For successful swing entries I would be looking the 1.5487 to 1.5541 the target area.


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

Hotforex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 11th February 2015



EURNZD APPROACHING THE LOWER END OF THE CHANNEL AGAIN.



The pair has been in a wide ranging downward channel since August 2013. There was recently an overshoot below the channel line which caused a sizeable contra trend move that was then rejected at a pivot low from November last year. The reversal was strong creating a shooting star like candle. The high of the candle coincided with the 1.5815 Fibonacci level, while the pivot low from November is at the approx. region of the 50% Fibonacci level. Price is approaching the lower end of the recent range as well as the lower end of the bearish channel.


EURNZD-D.png


EURNZD, Daily


EURNZD has broken out of the recent downtrend and has now retraced back to the trendline. This level also coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci level and a candle high of a recent pivot at 1.5171. Stochastics are oversold and there has been a tick higher in the indicator suggesting momentum might be reversing here. The resistance level at 1.5346 is the weekly pivot candle low and could therefore be a significant resistance. The pair has also created a higher low and a higher high, suggesting bullishness inside the long term down trend.


EURNZD-4h.png


EURNZD, 240 min


The short term trend is down but the Stochastics indicator is signalling bullish divergence here (price makes a lower low but the indicator a higher low). The nearest support level is 1.5172 which also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. Price is testing the short term trendline at the time of writing and should the breakout happen here, the first test for the bulls is the 1.5319 resistance level while the next resistance level is at 1.5507.


Conclusion:


The long term picture is bearish as the price has been trending lower for quite some time and still is inside the downward channel. However, the channel width is huge and the contra trend moves can and have been sizeable. This leaves room for swing trades in both directions. The current price action is taking place at a combination of technical factors: trendline support (former daily downtrend), pivot candle high and 61.8% Fibonacci level. In addition we have oversold Stochastics in the daily time frame and the bullish divergence in the 4h hour chart. All this points out to a possibility of price turning higher from the proximity of current price levels, but we should remember that this level is mid-rage in the daily time frame and trade accordingly (smaller time frame trade ideas in accordance with how the price reacts to trendlines and S&R levels). These smaller resolution based trade ideas can then be turned into swing positions should the price action validate the bullish indications the daily chart. We now have a daily higher low and higher high, which suggests bullishness. If however the 1.5171 support level is decisively broken, then the next level that I find interesting for short exits and long entries is close to the 1.4940, an area where the daily Bollinger bands currently reside.


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

Hotforex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Edited by HFblogNews

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Date : 12th February 2015



EURJPY CLOSE TO WEEKLY RESISTANCE LEVELS.



The pair has moved significantly lower since the November highs last year and then reversed from a 2013 consolidation area. The weekly pivot candle had a narrow range between open and closing price and since then price has moved close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 137.64. The level coincides with a weekly high and is therefore a likely resistance level. Stochastics and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are crossing over from oversold levels giving bullish indication. However, the sideways market from July to October last year is a likely resistance area and I am expecting it to bring to price closer to latest weekly lows again.


EURJPY-D1.png


EURJPY, Daily


EURJPY has broken out of the down trend after an overshoot to the downside. The 26th January candle was a rejection candle and formed the pivot low for this potential bottoming formation. Stochastics has moved into overbought territory for the first time since November last year and price is edging closer to a resistance level at 137.26 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 137.72. There is a support level (former resistance) that roughly coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and was supporting price at the time of writing. The next level of support is in the 133.68 region, while the daily Bollinger Bands are also worth keeping an eye on especially when they are in the proximity of the previous downward channel high.



EURJPY-4h1.png


EURNZD, 240 min


Price has reacted from the upper end of a short term bull channel and reached the recent sideways range that is now supporting price. Should this support fail, the next significant support area is at 133.42 to 133.67 where the 50% Fibonacci level, the lower Bollinger bands and the channel low coincide.


Conclusion:


The pivot candle from two weeks ago had a narrow range between open and closing price, which implies that the big time frame supply and demand were in balance at those levels. Stochastics and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are crossing over from oversold levels which together with the weekly pivot candle (being relatively close to the current price) gives a longer term bullish indication. However, the fact that this is taking place just below a sideways range from the latter half of 2014 means that there is resistance above. In the daily picture the Stochastics have moved into overbought territory for the first time since November last year and the pair is now getting closer to a resistance level at 137.26 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 137.72. This is a long term bullish but short term bearish indication as the price is likely to correct lower from overbought levels but in the longer term picture this is a sign of the down move is likely now over. As usual, I am interested in shorts against the resistance levels and longs at supports providing the multi time frame analysis and momentum reversal signals confirm the validity of the levels.


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

Hotforex


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Date : 13th February 2015



CRUDE OIL HAS BEEN ATTRACTING BUYERS.



Crude Oil is now trading at levels near to the 2009 lows. As the world economy is sluggish but nowhere near to the paralysis caused by the 2008 credit crunch it is safe to assume that the levels are oversold both in fundamental and technical sense. The supply of oil has increased as the US shale oil has entered the market and the Saudis have decided to defend the market share rather than price but the ever growing world population means that the limited oil resources have to be shared by an increasing number of consumers. As the population and its wealth grow the consumption of oil can only go up. The passenger trends in air travel are a good example of this. According to the International Air Transport Association the global airline industry is expected see a 7% growth in passenger traffic in 2015 with the average annual growth rate being at 5.5%. This energy intensive industry will therefore be carrying almost 30% more customers in 2020 and is likely to hedge aviation fuel costs at the current price levels. As the global GDP is still expected grow by 3.2% in 2015, it is likely that other likely hedgers include the businesses in other forms of transport and cargo business as well as mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutional investors.


InvDXY-and-CL.png


US Dollar index (inverted) and Crude Oil, Daily


As the above chart very clearly shows the price of oil has been inversely correlated with the DXY, US Dollar Index. The blue line is the inverted DXY while the black line is the price of Crude Oil. Now that the trend in DXY is getting showing signs of indecision the Crude Oil price has become more volatile.


CL-W3.png


Crude Oil, Weekly


The price is fluctuating relatively close to 2009 low and is showing strength by closing last week above the last four weekly highs. This has not happened since last summer. Also, we now have a weekly pivot candle with two higher lows on each side for the first time since the August 2014. This and last week the price has established a new support level at the proximity of the high (48.35) of this pivot candle. The nearest resistance is still at the 53.60 area. Price has traded inside the lower 1.5 stdv Bollinger band for almost three weeks, yet another long term bullish sign. On the bearish side we have a potential long legged Doji candle (looks like a cross) with open and close currently fairly close to each other. While the previous candle showed strength with open way below the closing price the current candle cannot give the same indication unless we will see a strong move higher from current levels. This would in the current context have short term bearish indications.


CL-D2.png


Crude Oil, Daily


After breaking out of the descending regression channel the price of oil is now moving sideways between the resistance at weekly low at 53.60 and the high of weekly pivot candle at 48.35. We now have a higher high, and two higher lows at 48.35 support which suggests that the buyers are willing support price at higher levels after each retracement from the 53.60 resistance level. If this reoccurs without price creating a lower high it will create pressure against the sellers at the 53.60 resistance area.


CL-4h1.png


Crude Oil, 240 min


The price is now at sideways range in 4h chart and has found support twice from the level just above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. I suggested in my previous analysis that we could look for intraday buy signals at approx. at this level. Now the price is at the upper Bollinger bands and Stochastics (and RSI) is indicating that it is becoming overbought.




Conclusion:


The levels close to previous market low are always interesting and a potential support area. Now that the price is close to 2009 lows it is likely that several hedgers are interested in stepping in. This is very likely already happening as we are seeing many bullish signs in the weekly picture: 1) a close above the last four weekly highs for the first time since the last summer, 2) a weekly pivot candle with two higher lows on each side (the first time since the August 2014), 3) the price has traded inside the lower 1.5 stdv Bollinger band for almost three weeks (again the first occurrence since the last summer). Buyers are taking the upper hand. On the bearish side the weekly chart might create a long legged Doji candle (looks like a cross) with open and close currently fairly close to each other. While the previous candle showed strength with open way below the closing price the current candle cannot give the same indication unless we will see a strong move higher from current levels. This would have short term bearish indications and mean that probabilities for move closer to the bottom end of the range would increase.


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

Hotforex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 16th February 2015



SEVERAL TECHNICAL FACTORS SUPPORTING GOLD.



Price corrected lower from the levels around 1280 to 1284 as per my previous analysis and has now reached a key support area (1203 – 1220). The long term weekly trend is still down but the medium term bullish channel is more relevant for the current price action. The last week’s candle has a relatively small range and the close was not that far below from the open. This is a sign of momentum slowing down. Price is at an area that resisted price moves higher in December last year (now support) and the rising trendline is getting close. In addition, the 50% Fibonacci level is right at the last week’s low. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1222 and 1251, while the next levels are at 1203 and 1284. Fibonacci retracement levels of 50% and 61.8% coincide with the 1222 and 1203 support levels.


Gold-D.png


Gold, Daily:


The regression channel tool provides us a slightly different picture of the rising medium term trend. The move above 1284 level was an overshoot and now the price has reached the lower end of the channel. As the lower Bollinger Bands also reside at the current levels it is safe to assume that this is an important price region in technical sense. In addition the Stochastics oscillator is giving a signal that momentum is reversing while the indicator is below the oversold threshold. The nearest important support and resistance levels are the same in the daily time frame: 1222 and 1251.


Gold-4h1.png


Gold, 240 min:


Price followed roughly the bear trend channel I drew in my previous analysis and provided many shorting opportunities for our traders. Now that the price has reached an important support level it has reacted higher. The Stochastics is getting close to overbought area and the price is approaching both the upper Bollinger bands and a sideways move between 1233 and 1245. This should slow the price down and cause it to test the support area again.


Conclusion:


There is a very good chance that Gold has bottomed and will now create a higher low somewhere close to the current levels. There are several technical factors supporting price and the price movements since the Swiss election (rejecting the increase in country’s Gold reserves) have been pretty much what I anticipated at the time (a move higher to the upper end of the long term channel). Now price is at key support levels and at the upper end of the potential bottoming formation (between 1131 and 1222). It is likely that this will act as a zone from which the price of Gold can launch higher. This view is confirmed if we’ll now see a higher weekly low (last week’s candle hints that we might get one) close to the current levels. In fact, the whole range As I said before these are the levels where I would be interested in adding to longer term Gold positions. A lower high would be a negative and increase a risk of price moving lower.


In the short term picture, the price is at the time of writing close to a minor resistance level at which the price action should be monitored for momentum reversal signals. As the price usually never turns on a dime, it is reasonable to expect that there will be volatility or sideways move before the price of Gold can turn higher in the weekly time frame. Short term traders should take advantage of this and look for intraday momentum reversal signals (as per my teaching in the webinars) and some of those intraday positions could be turned in to swing trades as the price is at key higher timeframe support levels.


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

Hotforex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 17th February 2015



SILVER FOLLOWS GOLD AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO KEY LEVELS.



The price of silver has been trending lower and has now after reaching the low of 14.15 reacted strongly higher over the last three months. This rally was stopped by a resistance at 18.62 and price has since moved lower to 16.55 where it created a weekly pivot. All in all the price is trending lower in a wide trend channel and is now close to a midrange between the latest weekly pivot high of 18.50 and 14.15 low. However, if the Gold finds support from the potential bottoming area (see my previous analysis on Gold), then it is safe to assume that highly correlated Silver is also a long term buy. Silver is now close to a similar region as Gold, where price is trading just above levels that used to resist price moves higher. This suggests that the downside relative to weekly price swings is getting limited.


Silver-D.png


Silver, Daily:


Silver has now broken a recent uptrend and created a lower high at the trend line. It is now moving sideways between the trendline and a support at 16.55. The daily pivot high from February 3rd limited the upside and has turned price lower today. The price of Silver is currently close to the daily range low and at a level that coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The 50% level is in the region of the lower Bollinger bands. Should the current levels break, the next potential support levels are in the region of 15.50 to 15.80 (support level and the 61.8% Fibonacci level).



Silver-4h.png


Silver, 240 min:


In the 4h time frame the price is in a sideways range and has moved close to the lower end of it. The Stochastics are oversold and price is getting close to the Bollinger bands.


Conclusion:


As we have a strong weekly resistance area above and a weekly pivot below it is likely that the price will remain range bound between 15.50 and 18.60 over the coming weeks. These levels are approximations as support and resistance levels are never exact but rather areas around the resistance levels. The lower high and low in the daily chart suggest that price might correct lower from here. Should this happen the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 15.83 and the daily support at 15.53 would be potential downside targets. The latter coincides with the weekly 1.5 standard deviation Bollinger band and is therefore likely to be a level with added significance. The price of Silver has a high correlation with the price of Gold and should my long term Gold analysis prove correct (expecting Gold to find support from the potential bottoming formation) then Silver should also be a long term buy at levels relative close to the current prices. It is worth keeping an eye on both and see how they react in weekly, daily and 4h time frames. You can access my latest Gold analysis here.


If you would like to learn more or enhance your understanding of market basics, please join us on FREE Market Basics II webinar on today 17th February at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

Hotforex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 19th February 2015



FED BEING PATIENT RALLIED GOLD YESTERDAY.



Long term weekly trend is down but the medium term weekly trend has turned higher. I said in my Gold analysis on January 30th: Those looking to add Gold to longer term positions might consider doing so at levels closer to 1200. Yesterday’s low was at 1197 and price rallied strongly thus supporting the analysis. This rally took place at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and very close to the rising trend line. We obviously need to see further buying to prove my case but this far trading in Gold is very much going “to the plan”. The plan being that we should see higher weekly low not far from current levels. Here’s a quote from my recent analysis: Now price is at key support levels and at the upper end of the potential bottoming formation (between 1131 and 1222). It is likely that this will act as a zone from which the price of Gold can launch higher. This view is confirmed if we’ll see a higher weekly low (last week’s candle hints that we might get one) close to the current levels.


Stochastics indicator is still in neutral territory and the nearest support and resistance levels are at 1197.2 and 1216.50 with the 50% Fibonacci level just above at 1219.7. In terms of price formations, we have additional support from the weekly pivot candle from December last year. I would like to see price creating a higher low at levels higher than the low of this pivot candle.


Gold-D3.png


Gold, 240 min


In the intraday resolution the price of Gold is trending lower and is at the time of writing just below resistance level. Stochastics is overbought and price is moving sideways at 1216.50 resistance. However, there is no downside momentum at the moment which could well indicate that the market participants see downside being limited. Instead the smaller time frame charts indicate that the buyers are trying to push price higher. The latest low at 1197.20 coincides with the rising weekly trendline and therefore limits the potential in the downside. The next resistance level at approx. 1234 is fairly close to the upper Bollinger Bands and therefore a potential resistance level. We also have a bullish wedge forming in the 4h chart indicating that the sellers are losing ground while buyers are becoming stronger.


Conclusion:

Long term: Price action at the levels (that I’ve been looking at as potential turn around area) is giving early indications the idea that the price of Gold has reached an important support area. The Money Flow Index, (an indicator integrating volume into the equation) is suggesting that the turnaround is taking place and the gap opening higher in the daily chart supports the view.


Short term: In the intraday picture the price of Gold is still in a downtrend and has moved close to a resistance level. At the time of writing there is not much downside momentum, which indicates that the market participants perhaps see downside being limited. Traders should follow the 15 min and 60 min charts to see how price react to the current resistance area and trade accordingly.


Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 24th February at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!



Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 25th February 2015



S&P 500 IN NEW ALL TIME HIGHS.



I pointed out in my previous S&P 500 analysis that the support at 1961 to 1974 area has been holding well which will add pressure to the resistance level at 2063 area. In an uptrend it is more likely that a resistance level will give in and the support levels hold. I also said that the key sectors such as energy (XLE), industrials (XLI) and basic materials (XLB) look technically sound in the weekly picture while utilities sector (XLU) lost 4,12% on Friday suggesting that the run for the safety is now over as the long only funds move money from safety oriented investments to higher beta (more riskier) stocks. There were some indications of short term weakness as well but they did not materialize. Instead the market broke above the 2062.50 resistance and has since then moved into new all-time highs.


Over the last month the riskier sectors such as Materials, Energy, Technology and Industrials have been outperforming S&P 500 and attracting money more than Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care that are viewed as safe havens for long only funds. The Financials have been neutral when compared to the S&P 500. The Financials sector performance could have been stronger but it has been slowed down by technical resistance at the weekly pivot candle. Other sectors at or near resistance are technology (close to a long term channel top), energy (at a historical resistance) and consumer staples (at the recent highs).


Further sector analysis reveals that over the last six trading days the money flows have once again favoured the Utilities and Health Care sectors over all the others with Energy and Financials lagging the most. All this put together indicates that we could see the S&P 500 slowing down over the next few trading days. However, in the longer term picture the trend and the risk appetite among the professional investors looks healthy.



SP-500-W.png


S&P 500, Weekly


The weekly trend is healthy as the market has once again been able to push into new highs after making higher lows in this time frame. However, at the same time the index has been now trading close to upper Bollinger Bands with the Stochastics being in overbought territory. If this week’s close will happen at the current levels then we have a candle that signals demand drying up (upward momentum slowing down). This would not be surprise after market moving higher for over three weeks in a row. The previous resistance levels at 2062.50 and 2088.75 are now support levels. While almost everything else looks rather bullish Money Flow Index is diverging strongly (bearish divergence) suggesting that the current move into new highs was not as strong as the previous one in December.


SP-500-D.png


S&P 500, Daily


The daily trend is contained in a relatively narrow channel while the Stochastics, RSI and MFI all are moving almost sideways in the overbought area. The market has not corrected lower for 10 trading days which suggests that an increase in volatility and a correction cannot be that far in the future. The potential support levels are the previous resistance levels: 2088.75 and 2062.50. The upper level coincides with the proximity of 23.6% Fibonacci level and the lower one with 38.2% level.


SP-500-4h1.png


S&P 500, 240 min


The 4h trend is showing some signs of weakness. The moves from the supporting uptrend line are getting weaker as evidenced by the red line. In other words the market is wedging which indicates the potential for a correction has increased. The divergence in the Stochastics is in line with this view. The nearest 4h support levels are at 2099.50 and 2082.25.


Conclusion:


The long term trend is healthy but in the medium term the volatility has been so low that we might see some increase and a correction to support levels. As evidenced by the sectors the market participants are not concerned about the safety aspect anymore and have been willing to take bets even in the riskier sectors. However, when turning attention to a shorter term picture it is worth mentioning that the sector analysis also reveals how over the last six trading days the money flows have been once again favouring the Utilities and Health Care sectors over all the other sectors, while Energy and Financials have lagged the most. All this put together indicates that we could see the S&P 500 slowing down and possibly correcting lower in the course of the next few trading days.


In the longer term picture the trend and the risk appetite among the professional investors looks healthy. Short term fluctuations aside this is a sign of a healthy market and moves to support levels should be used as buying opportunities. Index being close to the weekly Bollinger Bands and the 4h chart giving first indications of momentum slowing a correction to these levels should not be that far in the future. However, as usual we want to see the intraday price action confirming the validity of my analysis and suggested support levels.


Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 3rd of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 27th February 2015



TRADERS BUY THE USD AS THE US CORE CPI CAME IN AT +0.2%.



EURUSD-W1.png


After a couple weeks of low volatility the EURUSD moved lower yesterday driven by the US inflation figures. The core CPI (change in the price of consumer goods and services excluding food and energy) rose by 0.2% instead of 0.1% expected by the economists. The CPI that includes the more volatile items (food and energy) fell by 0.7%, most since 1998. This is explained by the substantial fall in Crude Oil prices. The Fed policy makers focus on the Core CPI and therefore markets reacted to the higher than expected figure and bought the dollar as they concluded this will encourage the Fed to raise interest rates this year. However, economists believe that the effects of lower energy prices and a strong dollar will work their way to the Core CPI and cause low reading in the near future.


EURUSD has been really tame since the last time I wrote analysis on it. The weekly picture has not changed much as the downtrend still prevails and there is a shooting star candle indicating that the price will stay in the downtrend. The combination of resistance level at 1.1460 and the 23.6% retracement level held the pair down. The current support and resistance levels nearest to the current price are 1.1098 and 1.1460.


EURUSD-4h1.png


EURUSD, 240 min


Now that the EURUSD has been moving sideways the daily and 4h charts are so similar that I will only comment on the latter. Price is currently resting at a pivot candle high at 1.1203 and the Stochastics are well into the oversold territory while price has moved inside the Bollinger Bands. This suggests that there should be an intraday rebound higher probably to the nearest resistance level at 1.1287. This level coincides with the 50% retracement level drawn from the Wednesday’s high to the latest low yesterday.


Conclusion:


This market is still in a downtrend which means that the support levels are more likely broken and resistance levels honoured. However, the price is now relatively close to the weekly low and sitting at a 4h pivot candle. In addition the price is outside the daily lower Bollinger Bands and the 4h Stochastics are oversold. Therefore a move higher should be in the cards. This should however, be only an intraday rebound as we resistance levels and a sideways range above. Should this move take place I would be looking to benefit from the weekly trend by selling short at the resistance levels, providing the lower time frame charts confirm the idea.


Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 3rd of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Date : 2nd March 2015



GBP A SAFEHAVEN CURRENCY IN EUROPE.



EURGBP-W.png


Now that EUR is weak due to both economic, geopolitical and Greece related risks Sterling starts to look like a safe haven currency with its economy rebounding. The UK job market is recovering, Industrial activity expanding and GDP at healthy 2.7% level (almost back to its 2007 pre-crisis levels). This creates a stark contrast to the ailing Euro Area but at the same time the risk is one of contagion: Euro Area being so important trading partner to the UK its can impact the growth in the UK negatively. However, the EURGBP pair is in a downtrend and reflects both the stark differences in the economic front and the interest rate hike expectations. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates either in the third or fourth quarter while the ECB is obviously committed to the QE program announced in January.


Price is now bouncing from general region of a 0.7255 support level, a historical pivot high. Stochastics in both weekly and daily timeframes are oversold and there is no divergence in these time frames. Out of major EUR crosses, it is the EURGBP that is the weakest and therefore makes it an ideal market to sell the rallies. The nearest resistance (a weekly low) is at 0.7340.



EURGBP-D.png


EURGBP, Daily


Since my previous analysis price moved lower and is moving sideways in the region of 0.7255 support area. Stochastics is edging closer to its moving average indicating lack of downside momentum at this support. This could of course change later in today’s trading but it shows how relevant this level was for the market participants. The pair is now moving at the lower end of the regression channel but potential resistance levels are not that far from the current levels. The nearest daily resistance levels are: 0.7300, 0.7317 and 0.7348.


EURGBP-240.png


EURGBP, 240 min


I expected price find support at 0.7255 and it did almost to a pip, rallied and then was sold again from 0.7300 level. This led to a move that touched the channel line. The current move higher is taking place after a touch at the lower end of a short term bear channel and after there was a higher low in the Stochastics (bullish divergence). There is a resistance area from 0.7300 to 0.7314 that coincides with a midline in the channel. In addition the upper Bollinger Bans are not that far above the zone either.


Conclusion:


With price being at a historical pivot high and close to the short term channel bottom it makes sense to wait for better levels to enter into short trades. The zone from 0.7300 to 0.7314 is an area we should be looking for momentum reversal signals as the channel midline and the upper Bollinger Bands coincide with the zone. For UK and Euro Area economic releases, see our economic calendar here: HotForex Economic Calendar


Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 3rd of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!


Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex


Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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