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Economic Calendar

 

Know what will happen next in the financial markets with ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar.

 

ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar is a real-time, customizable, and multifunctional, forex tool that allows traders to be updated with the latest and most relevant market events. All information that could be potentially impact your trading will be listed and analyzed here.

 

A trader that knows more, profits more. Use ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar and become a better trader today.

 

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VAT Returns of Small Firms Incorporates to UK GDP Calculation

 

The Office for National Statistics evaluates the British economy by overhauling its way which includes huge VAT amounts from smaller companies for the first time. In the previous survey, the gross domestic product of the country was mainly based on the turnover of 45,000 largest firms. Since December, the data from the third of Britain’s 1.8m VAT returns will also be included in the turnover for the calculation of official GDP results.

With this, assessing UK economic growth will have dramatic changes for this could provide further insights from particular areas and industries. A higher proportion of VAT returns involves small businesses with a total of 98pc of UK companies.

 

In the past estimates of GDP, pubs and restaurants sectors, particularly  "food and beverage service activities" have high levels according to the 172 monthly poll and 28,000 tax returns.

According to the ONS, a much more detailed data will provide a comprehensive output of pubs, restaurants and takeaways and restaurants among various regions. The first new estimate encompasses VAT returns coming from small and medium businesses including 100 or fewer headcounts. While survey for large companies will remain to be part of the data gathering and ONS’s report. As there is only 20 percent of smaller firms in the UK economy, which means that the data accumulated by the national statistical institute will be more accurate but the overall GDP result could possibly be not altered despite its inclusion because major firms have a greater impact.

 

Based on the perspective of PwC’s Economist John Hawksworth, it would be better if the Statistics authority will release GDP forecast “ with and without (the) use of the new VAT data" respectively, in order for the public to understand the difference. On the other hand, ONS  chief economist Nick Vaughan announced that including additional information will be a gradual process.

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Record Low Drop of Aussie After RBA November Meeting


It is still unknown when will the Reserve Bank of Australia be able to return to sufficient wages which would lift weakened inflation. At the same time, commentaries from the board push the dollar to its lowest level in five months.

During the minutes of the  Reserve Bank's Melbourne Cup day, it can be concluded that they are heedful that low unemployment rate could not be directly associated with the globalization and technology and put upward pressure on inflation.

The cash rate positioned at a historic low of 1.5 percent following the November meeting when board member expressed their uncertainty on wage growth. When the unemployment rate drops, the salaries are expected to have an incremental increase. This could have a cooldown effect on the diminishing surge of the mining sector.  Although the board members expressed that uncertainty with the possibility of a wage pressure and the size of its effect on the inflationary pressure.

At the same time, tension coming from strong competition and a quicker rate in productivity pickup could hamper the push through of tighter labor market conditions to inflationary pressure.

Following the release of the meeting, the Aussie dollar dropped to 75.33 US cents from 75.58 US cents which have been the lowest level since June.

As mentioned, the board members see the competitive pressures effect on the outlook for inflation is predicted to decrease down to 2.25 percent but this is still within the target range of the central bank until the middle of 2019.

In effect, it seems that the food retailers and other enterprise adjusted their business models to able to cope with cost problems. It is anticipated that the pressure on retail margins and costs will remain for a while.

On the other hand, the board member also took notice that the wages growth weakened even though the supply in the labor market is declining. Hence, there is a chance that the current wage growth would not have a direct effect on the demand for labor and be less receptive to the changes in demands for labor.

The chief economist of Royal Bank of Canada Su-Lin Ong presumed that the wages growth will reach the lowest rate in 2017.

Considering the global trend, it cannot be clearly deduced whether the pace of wage growth could be maintained.

Ong mentioned that the RBA could hold the rates at a steady pace in 2018 and proceed with increasing their prices the year after and end with two percent cash rate. She noted other factors such as weak domestic demand and variability in housing that is still far from reaching its goals amid an excessive labor market would have a minimal effect to raise the cash rate from 1.5 percent in early 2019.

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Flat Economic Yield Curve Impact to the Economy

 

The U.S. Treasury yield curve is intensifying concern as it has been moving flat at a quicker rate which could affect the outlook for the economy. Although, this is already expected since the slope of the curve has been a relevant tool because of its stability and positive track record. Oppositely, a narrow curve would mean a slowdown in growth.

 

The economic signal has been more robust when there is an outright curve inversion, which happens when short-term yields are greater than those on longer-dated Treasuries. It is not the current situation but generally, people aim for 63 basis points. The difference between two- and 10-year Treasury yields have been reduced from 128 basis points in January which is the least gap since 2007 just before the recession began.

 

There are investors who believe that the Treasury yield curve is enough to guarantee a change in the economic outlook but it is still far ahead. It is necessary to stabilize the changes in the yield curve of the financial market compared to the general economic yield curve.

 

The spread between the federal funds rate and the nominal gross domestic product is the yield curve of the economy. This association is significant as it determined the ability of businesses and their consumers to afford higher borrowing costs which would ultimately affect the growth of the economy.

 

Based on third-quarter data,  the economy’s yield curve is near 300 basis points, which is can be achieved by taking the 4.1 percent annualized rate of growth in nominal GDP and deduct to the quarterly average of the federal funds rate of 1.15 percent. The spread widened by 65 basis points compared last year. However, despite the increase of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve, the gap would increase the estimated by 4.5 percent to 5 percent growth in the nominal GDP which is already anticipated.

 

Nevertheless, changes in the yield curve of the economy will be supported by the higher spread between the federal funds rate and nominal GDP growth amid a not-so-strong and restricted growth of the financial market. This would prop up profits and equities of businesses. The future perspective of the fixed-income market may not be that positive since higher growth would induce Fed to normalize monetary policy through rate hikes.

 

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Japanese Government Additional Budget for FY2017

 

The Japanese government allocated an extra budget of 2.7 to 2.9 trillion yen equivalent to $24-26 billion for the current fiscal year until March 2018. There is an extra budget estimated worth of 1 trillion yen to boost expenditures, according to the official sources from the government

 

Moreover, the government will remove excess cash compared to last year’s fiscal budget and unutilized money from debt processes since the lending costs were lower-than-expected, according to reports.

 

There is no plan to make up with a deficit in bond issuance as long as there is ambiguity since there is still uncertainty in the future plans.

 

After a major election in October, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet members aims to boost childcare support, enhance productivity involving small and medium-sized companies which would toughen competition among agricultural, fishery and forestry industries.

 

 

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Canadian Trade Deficit Fell Off

 

The trade deficit in Canada slumped to a five-month low during the month of October sustained by the recent rebound in the declining exports. According to the report of Statistics Canada, the country’s  trade deficit came in at $1.48-billion in the month. It further shrank from September’s $3.36-billion which is considered the least downturn since May that break the four-month trade downfall.

 

The reversal was interrupted by the rebound in exports, which seems gloomy in the past months after it accelerated on its record highs in spring. Exports increased by 2.7 percent month on month in terms of value and also gained support by strong prices which boost volumes by 1.2 percent. Moreover, the recovery of exports indicates optimism towards the Canadian economy for the last quarter in 2017.

 

The drop of exports has been regarded a major factor that dragged Canada in Q3, upon the sluggish GDP growth pace during the first half of the year. Moreover, exports could possibly buoy by the soft loonies, as it lowered down by 5 cents versus its American counterpart during early September and by the end of October.

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France GDP Expected to Grow, says BoF

 

The economy of France is projected to increase at a steady pace in October to December based on the poll led by the Bank of France. The gross domestic product of the country is predicted to rise by 0.5 percent in Q4, which remains steady from the second estimate published in November. The French economy grew by 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

 

The data from the survey today indicates that the industrial production resumed growing until November. The business leaders mentioned that output is planned to increase at a consistent pace this month. Moreover, the manufacturing confidence index also sustained its score at 106 last month, versus the forecasted increase of 107. On the other hand, the service sector activity heightened in the previous month. Business executives expect for a slight increase in activity for this month. The services confidence index further showed a steady stance at 102 in November, as the construction activity had a sharp rise in the same month. The sentiment index in construction gained slightly from 103 to 104, which was the highest recorded since December 2007. According to forecast, the activity may grow at a hardly slower momentum in December.

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