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US Dollar Drops, Asian Stocks Bounce Back as Trump Victory Shock Fades

 

For the first time in nearly four days, Asian stocks increased in value while the USD dropped from its five-month high against the Japanese yen due to investors questioning the possible overreaction of the financial market to Donald Trump’s recent win during the US elections. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased due to energy shares after crude oil prices rose to its highest levels in seven months after the OPEC finally agreed on proposed output cutbacks. For the major currencies, the KRW had the most gains after rebounding from its near-record lows since June 2016. The Japanese 10-year bond yields were also able to maintain its zero value after staying within negative territory for a total of eight weeks.

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Dollar Falls, Bonds Increase, Asian Stocks Fluctuate Prior to Yellen Statement

 

The USD lost a significant amount of its value as compared to other major currency pairs while Treasury yields surged and Asian stocks experienced fluctuations prior to the release of the US inflation data, as well as a testimonial from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen which is expected to determine market expectations on the US interest rate. Meanwhile, the EUR edged higher after a nine-day slump as the dollar index reverted back from its highest level reached in nine months. New Zealand and Australian stocks extended its gains, while benchmark Treasuries also inched higher. Crude oil prices fell as American stockpiles incurred more gains in the market.

 
 

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The Number of Jobless Claimants in UK Grew by 9.8K

 

The office for National Statistics of UK presented mixed data of unemployment rate which fall to 4.8% from the previous 4.9%, it is considered the lowest since the third quarter of 2005.. The Claimant Count Change presented a negative outlook as the number climb up to 9.8k in the month of October, the result is greater than the expected which is 2K only.

 

Moreover, the data released last September got affected and modified as it rise to 5.6k with only 0.7K on the previous result. This occurrence showed some signals about the worsening conditions in the labor ministry. This complication further stirred the GBP/USD as it insignificantly slid downside.

 
 

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Asian Stock Market Traded Mixed Due to Dollar Easing

 

The Asian market were trading mixed yesterday morning as the U.S Dollar strengthen along with the bond yields that increased as well, consequent to the victory of Donald Trump that  further stimulated fund flows from various developing markets.

 

Despite of the softening of the yen, the Japan's Nikkei 225 rose up to 0.51% on the back of the broad based strengthening of the greenbacks after the election. While the benchmark Kospi Index of South Korea were able to bounce back and gain 0.05% following the prosecutor’s affirmation that President Park Geun-hye is associated in the political scandal.

 

On the other hand, the Chinese shares is in an upbeat as its global benchmark, Shanghai composite expand to 0.65%. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong  moved higher up to 0.46%.

While Major economic news were released on Monday morning as the trade data of Japan for the month of October had dipped, the exports declined and the imports dropped 16.5%. The South Korea’s exports for the first 20 days of November had decreased with 0.25, imports plunged to 3.1%

 

While the petroleum products and other commodities made an upward momentum, the crude add up 0.83% and the Brent grew by 0.9%.

 
 

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U.S. Treasury Yields Soar with Strong Dollar

 

The U.S. Dollar reached a six-month record high on Monday's Asian trading session because of Trump's planned fiscal policies and goals to drive growth. The uncertainty brought by the so called “Trumponomics” has made the financial market to buy dollars and sell U.S.

 

Treasuries which is expected to persist for some time. Although there might be correction near Thanksgiving.

 

For five years, the U.S. Treasury yields have reached a highest two-week gains. This includes all types of maturities which is an after-effect of U.S. Presidential election. People waiting what will happen next after Trump's victory has further boosted the greenback to thirteen and half year highs compare to basket of currencies.

 
 

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Thai Economy Slows Down as International Risks Increase, Investments Weaken

 

The economic growth of Thailand slowed down during the previous quarter due to a relative weakness in the performance of private investments which is now compelling the Thai government to increase spending in order to shield the economy from an increase in international risks as well as burgeoning political uncertainties in the region following the death of King Bhumibol. Thailand is now expected to deal with added volatility in the financial market due to the unexpected results of the US elections as well as the death of the Thai king. On the other hand, the military junta has already guaranteed assistance with regards to infrastructure as well as financial support for farmers.

 
 

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Australia’s Mining Investments Fosters growth to Economy

 

Mining improves the economy of Australia with recovery of investments and increase in commodity prices. Furthermore, the high demand for Aussie boosts the economy specifically in Queensland and Western Australia since the inflation rates are going back to normal levels.

 

The unemployment rate has decreased since the peak in 2015 which also slowed down the population growth where the past reports saying it has improved were overstated . Nevertheless, this slow growth is not as bad as it shown a less than expected results.

 

On the bright side, it is the progress of trades mainly the pricing between imports and exports that gives a promising outlook for the mining investment and the increasing demand for money gives buoyancy in the economy.

 
 

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CBI’s Latest Industrial Trends Survey Showed an Increase on Manufacturing Orders But Remained to be Weak.

 

The manufacturing order books heightened although the export orders and economic growth eased within this month as indicated in the order results of the Industrial Trends Survey.

The survey includes 430 manufacturers and assessed that the total order books restored its previous level which prevails during the whole period of summer and seen on top of the long-term average. Moreover, the orders for exports dropped down slightly but managed to sustain an above average result.

 

The volume for output made a slow growth which is about three months later. There is hope that the production for the upcoming quarter appeared to be in good shape yet its highest level was recorded last February 2015. In light of the steep decline of the sterling pound, manufacturers await for the possible extension of the average selling prices for the succeeding months.

 

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Canadian Stocks Reaches Highest Levels in 17 Months Due to Massive Retail Sales Profits

 

Canadian stocks continued its increasing trend for a total of four days and has already reached its highest levels in 17 months as a result of massive retail sales gains, with retail sales clocking in its biggest profits incurred since April 2016. Canada’s retail sales data showed gains worth 0.6% in September 2016, its biggest gains posted since April and an indicator of the spending of the Canadian government’s recently-minted child benefits. Meanwhile, the Canadian equity benchmarks scored more gains as  the DJIA reached up to 19,000, while the MSCI index for both developing and developed markets increased by up to 3.6% for 2016 and could possibly hit its record highest yearly increase since 2013.

 

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Sluggish Trades Affect Germany’s Economic Growth

 

The economic growth of Germany slowed down by 0.2 percent in the third quarter even though both the government and consumer spending has significantly increased. Mainly due to the feeble foreign trading that brought an impact to Europe’s largest economy.

 

The Government spending rose by 1.0% while the Household spending climbed by 0.4%, both adding 0.2% to GDP economic growth. However, the net foreign trade deducted 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth since exports fell by 0.4% while imports ascended by 0.2%. This implies that the companies are withholding investments in the brink of low monetary policies of the European Central Bank.

 

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Sluggish Trades Affect Germany’s Economic Growth

 

The economic growth of Germany slowed down by 0.2 percent in the third quarter even though both the government and consumer spending has significantly increased. Mainly due to the feeble foreign trading that brought an impact to Europe’s largest economy.

 

The Government spending rose by 1.0% while the Household spending climbed by 0.4%, both adding 0.2% to GDP economic growth. However, the net foreign trade deducted 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth since exports fell by 0.4% while imports ascended by 0.2%. This implies that the companies are withholding investments in the brink of low monetary policies of the European Central Bank.

 

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U.S Dollar Gained Much Power Even Before Trump’s Victory

 

The greens continuously rise after Donald Trump won the American presidential election. However, these upsurge angst companies that imports their products to other countries which caused few investors to place the full responsibility to Trump for they earning less than their average gains because the dollar is too strong.

 

Moreover, these complaints were on the deck before the new U.S President-elect take his position. The squawks from companies point out that the cause of low earnings is due to the issues regarding the stronger dollar. Some of the large companies that the currency brought headwinds into their firms include Apple, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Kraft Heinz, Procter & Gamble and Whirlpool.

 

According to the research made by the Pavilion Global Markets that current stance of the dollar is the top reason why companies earned worse than their expectations, followed by issues concerning Brexit, election, the Fed, and wages.

 

Nevertheless, Jim Paulsen from Wells Capital Management said in an interview that he predicts that the greenbacks will experience a decline for 2017 because of the increasing inflationary expectations.

 

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Service Sector Affected by Low Optimism in the Economy

 

Low consumer spending and rise in wages affected the Service sector of U.K. for this month of November. This would bring negativity this Christmas season since pound has also depreciated. Companies rendering professional services are expected to decline in sales while it is the opposite for consumer services which is predicted to rise in sales in the next three months.

 

Even though, the consumer confidence has weakened, the employment growth remained steadfast. Consumer companies may allocate funds to training which will increase spending but cut down expenses on location, vehicles and machineries.

 

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Base Metals Continued to Surge Due to Increase in Infrastructure Spending

 

Metals had a persistent improvement amid on the supposition on Trump’s infrastructure expenditure and weakness in the overall inventories. Copper was able to arrive on its one-week high after the extensive downfall of the base metals. In trading copper within Asia has reached $269.90. However, investors speculate that Trump’s fiscal investment is almost $1trn which is expected to be the driving force for growth but will lessen the supplies considering the fact that China’s yuan hedging. In light of this, the bullish impetus gives rise for the demand of the trend-following fund as it was able to surge the buying pressure. Furthermore, the industrial metals sustained an upward lift amid the strengthening of the U.S dollar compared to other currencies.

 

Despite China’s procurement of copper as a hedge to overcome yuan devaluation, the data issued specified a positive growth in supply. There is also an expected rally in prices of other  base metals in order to raise an opportunity to replenish short trading commodities.

 

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Gold Recovers from Nine-Month Slump as USD Drops

 

Gold stocks were able to recover from its recent nine-month slump as the USD’s strength which sent gold prices down and pushed silver into a bearish market finally fizzled out. As gold finally clocked in its first increases in four days, its weekly loss was cut back by up to 2%, while prices have all but decreased following the release of highly positive economic data and expected increase in national spending after Trump’s recent win increased market expectations of added interest rates. As a result, a lot of investors are now selling off gold-backed investments, the fastest selloff seen in three years.

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Oil Market Uncertainty Brought the Prices Down

 

Market still awaits if OPEC will be able to reduce their production output on Wednesday bringing the oil price down on Tuesday. The next OPEC meeting will be held on Wednesday at Vienna to come up with a decision to cut production. This brought uncertainty in the market resulting in high volatility. Political considerations and set agreement for quota of countries hinders from coming up to an agreement. If there will be no agreement reached, oil prices are expected to rise averaging $45 per barrel until next summer.

 

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OECD Expects 3% Growth Slip for Australia Until 2018

 

The intergovernmental economic organization, OECD has released its recent assessment regarding the economic stance of Australia. According to the organization, the economic growth of the region has the tendency to decline by 3% by the end of the current year and expected to persist until 2018 by which the RBA already planned to had an increase of rates by the aforesaid period.

 

In the month of June, the country’s economy appears to be growing, however, economists studied that the Australian continent reached its soft spot where growth are limited after the issuance of national accounts for September were released on the 7th of December.

 

The OECD advised during this phenomenon of growth slippage, the government should lead the ways in order to recover as soon as possible through investing in infrastructure rather than implying a rate cut considering that the average housing prices and rates are relatively low.

 

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As Energy Corporations Retreat, Canadian Stocks Drop to Lowest Levels in Two Weeks

 

Canadian stocks dropped to its lowest levels in two weeks after oil companies were subject to significant losses in the light of talks among producers prior to the OPEC meeting scheduled in Vienna, Austria within the week. Energy corporations led the S&P/TSX Composite Index lower after it fell by up to 1.4% for three consecutive days, which is  the longest losing streak for the index since November. Out of the 11 industries in this particular index, 7 companies experienced losses, and industrial stocks also retreated and were subject to significant decreases.

 
 

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New Monetary Policy of Japan: Massive Buying Government Bonds Continues

 

The new policy framework of Japan to help the increase of policy rates to elevate the economy will be carried on to increase inflation rates. The BOJ decided to change their policies after the printing of money and huge asset buying to be unsuccessful to meet its 2 percent inflation target. In views of this, they are trying to create a more sustainable monetary policies. The massive buying of government bonds will be maintained with yield curve being inline with central bank's expectations. Although there are concerns that this move negatively affects the real-estate investment trust market of Japan.

 

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PM Renzi's Plan for Italy's Reformation Has Failed on Sunday

 

The Prime Minister of Italy, Matteo Renzi had his decision to resign last night after he lose in a constitutional referendum held Sunday, 4th of December 2016. The Italian politician admitted his defeat prior to the issuance of the official results and as expected the exit poll exhibited that Renzi is facing a humiliating defeat.

 

The referendum rise due to the plan of the 41-year-old PM to establish a major economic reform package in order to reconstruct the political system of the country. As he proposed to reform the power of the senate as well to reduce its number present in the lower house of parliament. Furthermore, he wanted to amend the political authority of every state and region in Italy.

 
 

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Euro Drops, Bonds Surge as Italy Says No to Constitutional Reforms

 

The EUR plummeted along with Asian stocks while bond prices surged after the Italian government voted “No” on the referendum for constitutional reforms, which sparked concerns that this recent development in the country will induce instability in the Italian economy and boost nationalist organizations. The euro hit its lowest point in almost two years after Italian PM Renzi announced his resignation. UK-based stocks and Asian shares index futures also dropped, while government debt recoiled in Treasuries during Friday’s session.

 

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The current Money Fall contest has already started on December 5, 2016 and will end on December 9, 2016.

 

You can register for the next competition which will take place from December 12, 2016 to December 16, 2016.

 

Note:

Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

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Money Fall Contest Winners for the week of November 14 - 18, 2016

Rank 1
Nickname: bahus17
City:  Ровно

Rank 2
Nickname: gamerbd14
City: DHAKA

Rank 3
Nickname: beta012
City: Maros

Rank 4
Nickname: serov12
City: Екатеринбург

Rank 5
Nickname: JUP-888
City: Klongsan

Rank 6
Nickname: ForexForce254
City: Nairobi

Rank 7
Nickname: hubert55u
City: Borne Sulinowo

Rank 8
Nickname: kencul
City: Masai

Rank 9
Nickname: Cross Road
City: Klaten

Rank 10
Nickname: kuzmich1072
City: Barnaul

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UK’s PMI Edged Higher in November

 

The primary businesses in the service sector of U.K had an upsurge last month and its highest rate was recorded January, while the economy continued to have its current momentum despite of the fear of some companies regarding the future markets as indicated in yesterday’s survey.

 

As the Markit/CIPS PMI handles the data relative to the economic sector as it gained 55.2 points for the month of November versus  the 54.5 October data, the recent results had presented better-than-expected outcome of Reuters poll surveyed by economists.

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China Needs to Address Rising Leverage Concerns

 

China has to implement market-oriented reforms at a faster pace to counterbalance the climb in corporate leverage including the unnecessary disturbances in the state sector according to a U.S. Treasury official.  

 

The reform is said to include the removal of ‘state guarantees’ and financial sector that disproportionate State-owned Enterprises charged to private sector firms. The country has an estimated total of $18 trillion debt that represents partly of the GDP. They see the relevance of removal of barriers that limits the participation of local and foreign companies in the service sector in line with the shift in focus from a manufacturing-centered country.

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