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  1. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX Registered

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 30 - April 03, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The pair's flights in recent weeks can be compared to aerobatics: first, an almost vertical takeoff up by 630 points, then a vertical peak by 860, and now a new leap up by 445 points.
    Several factors caused the sharp drop in the dollar. The main one is the actions of the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the interest rate to 0.25% and launched a number of programs to support the US economy, injecting billions of dollars and distributing money to its citizens. As a result, the Fed's balance sheet exceeded a record 4.5 trillion dollars, and according to economists' calculations, it may even reach 6 trillion dollars. As a result, US stock indexes flew up, the S&P500 jumped by as much as 20%, pulling the EUR/USD pair with it: investors reacted positively to the steps taken by the US leadership and began to turn away from the dollar as a safe haven asset, preferring more attractive assets at the moment.
    The ECB's coronavirus-related decision helped the European currency as well. Previously, the ECB could buy no more than a third of a country's public debt under the quantitative easing (QE) program, but now the Bank has removed this restriction, which has had a positive impact on the yield of Eurobonds and contributed to the growth of the euro.
    It should be noted that 60% of experts expected the pair to return to the 1.1000-1.1240 zone within a month, and 75% during the quarter. But, as practice shows, the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a powerful catalyst or driver, repeatedly speeding up market processes. So, it happened this time: the pair reached the set goal not in a quarter, nor even in a month, but in just five days, putting the final point on Friday, March 27 at 1.1140;

    - GBP/USD. Macroeconomic indicators such as the business activity index (PMI) indicate a contraction of the UK economy, to protect which the Bank of England has twice lowered the interest rate and increased the volume of bond purchases by ?200 billion over the past two months. However, at the last meeting, the leaders of this regulator unanimously voted against further reducing the rate and keeping it at 0.1%. It was also decided to leave the volume of bond purchases unchanged, at the level of ?645 billion. This indicates that the Bank of England considers the measures taken at this stage sufficient.
    The impact of the coronavirus on the UK economy will become more apparent after we learn the results of the first quarter of 2020. So far, the situation here looks little better than in the EU and the US. Support for the pound is now also provided by the ability of the Government of this country to print its own money, without any agreements with the EU.
    The bounce of the GBP/USD pair up last week looks even more impressive than the growth of EUR/USD: the British pound took away more than 830 points from the dollar. Recall that on March 20, it fell to the lowest values for the last 230 (!) years, and from 70% to 80% of analysts expected that, having fought off this bottom, the pound will be able to return to the zone of 1.2725-1.3025 during April-May. So far, this forecast is justified: the pair completed the five-day period on the way to the set goal, at the level of 1.2470;

    - USD/JPY. The end of March turned out to be favorable for the Japanese currency, whose quotes, as usual, depend on the risk appetite of investors, oil prices and the yield of US government bonds.
    The forecast, which was supported by the majority of experts, turned out to be correct by 99.9% if not by 100%. According to it, the pair should have turned south and headed to the 107.00-107.70 zone. This happened in fact: after making several attempts to break through the resistance of 111.60, the bulls gave up, and the bears very quickly lowered the pair by 385 points – to the level of 107.75, near which – at the level of 107.95 – it ended the trading session;

    – cryptocurrencies. We suggested in the previous forecast that Bitcoin quotes can be used as a leading indicator for forecasts for major dollar pairs. The main idea was that a lull in the crypto market during financial storms can be a harbinger of a trend change or a strong correction for EUR/USD. According to the voiced theory, the transition of the BTC/USD pair to a flat state in the conditions of continued over-volatility in other markets may indicate that the dollar has reached critical values, and large speculators do not know what to do, whether to increase dollar assets by selling BTC, or, on the contrary, to convert fiat into cryptocurrency.
    Of course, this is only a theory, with many reservations, but last week it was confirmed: the charts show a flat in the crypto market and a predicted sharp reversal of the trend for EUR/USD.
    Bitcoin has risen in price by less than 9% over the past seven days, Ripple (XRP/USD) – by 10%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) – by 3%, and the growth of Ethereum (ETH/USD) was less than 1%.
    By the way, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently presented a roadmap for the development of ETH for the next 5-10 years. In addition, he called for the development of decentralized bridges between Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies and for the creation of a "real" decentralized exchange (DEX) for the exchange of BTC and ETH. However, judging by the Ethereum quotes, his ideas have not yet found a response in the hearts and wallets of investors.

    continued below...
     
  2. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. After winning back 50% of the losses of the previous two weeks, the pair eventually returned to the Pivot Point 1.1100 zone, around which it has been rotating for many months, starting from the end of July 2019. This suggests that the market does not know what else to expect from the coronavirus and from the governments that have entered the fight against it.
    On the one hand, we can observe an avalanche-like increase in the number of diseases in the United States, and it is unknown whether President Trump and his administration will have the strength and ability not just to take control, but to seriously improve the situation. A significant part of the money that the Fed is pouring into the country's economy goes to pay unemployment benefits and one-time payments to individuals who... are quarantined and can't spend it. As a result, these funds will not reach the real sector of the economy in the near future. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin exudes optimism, saying that the current situation is not yet a financial crisis. However, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, already agrees that the US economy "may well be in recession", and the agenda is now dictated by the virus. And it is possible that a severe recession may turn into a depression at some point.
    On the other hand, the situation in Europe is no better. The results of the EU summit held on Thursday, March 26, were described by some analysts as "simply terrible". The representatives of the countries did not manage to reach a common opinion, the idea of European "corona bonds" is buried (at least for a while), and the ECB is having a hard time maintaining stability in the euro area. According to a number of experts, such disunity of the EU member states severely limits the opportunities for strengthening the European currency.
    At the moment, the graphical analysis points to the north, the vast majority of indicators look in the same direction, and only 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 give signals about the EUR/USD pair being overbought.
    Among experts, the majority (60%) is also set to continue the growth of the pair, while the remaining 40% voted for the fall. Resistance levels (taking into account current volatility) are 1.1240, 1.1365 and 1.1500, support levels are 1.1000, 1.0850, 1.0775 and 1.0635. Well, two seemingly unattainable goals (although, at present, everything is possible): bullish – 1.1800, bearish – 1.0550.
    As for the release of macroeconomic indicators, data on unemployment and the consumer market in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be available on Monday, March 30 and Tuesday, March 31. And the second half of the week will bring us a whole avalanche of data on the US labor market. Let's just say that in all cases, the forecasts are disappointing. For example, the number of jobs created outside the us agricultural sector (NFP) is expected to fall from plus 273K to minus 123K;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. Assessing the prospects for the British economy, chief economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, almost repeated what Jerome Powell said about the American. "The onset of a recession of unprecedented scale in modern history is becoming more likely," – this is the prophecy of Williamson. And even the UK's exit from the EU does not have such a negative impact on the economy as COVID-19.
    In this context, despite the medium-term forecast, 60% of analysts expect a downward trend reversal and the beginning of a new phase of the pound's fall in the next week. If we talk about technical analysis, the H4 timeframe is dominated by green, but 20% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. The signals of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 can be described as multidirectional.
    Graphical analysis on both timeframes supports the bearish forecast but assumes that the pair will stay in the range of 1.2250-1.2600 for some time before going down sharply.
    The resistance levels are 1.2600, 1.2750, 1.3025, 1.3200 and 1.3515. Support levels are 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.1800 and 1.1450;

    - USD/JPY. The pair ended the last week near the strong support/resistance level of 108.00, and most analysts (60%), as in the case of EUR/USD and GBP/USD, expect a trend reversal and subsequent strengthening of the dollar. If this happens, the pair has quite a lot of chances to still overcome the 111.60-112.00 mark and rise another 100 points higher. The nearest strong resistance is in the area of 109.70-110.00.
    The remaining 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, side with the bears. Support is in the zones 106.70-107.25 and 104.70-105.00, further targets are 103.00 and the March 09 low in the area of 101.00;

    – cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved just 3 points over the week, from 9 to 12, and still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market. At the same time, the number of requests for the word "Bitcoin" in the search engines Baidu and Google has grown significantly over the past month, and most users are interested in buying cryptocurrency. So, the number of requests increased by 138% over the past month in the Baidu search engine, and according to Google Trends, the growth was 57%.
    As usual, the growth of the reference cryptocurrency is predicted by all sorts of crypto gurus, especially since now they have a powerful ally in the person of the COVID-19 coronavirus. So, the well-known analyst Joseph Young expressed confidence in the positive impact on Bitcoin of the measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to stimulate the American economy. "The Fed endlessly prints money to pump the markets — this is good for Bitcoin. The devaluation of the dollar in the long run is good for Bitcoin. The short-term prospects may be bleak for this cryptocurrency, but the long-term outlook remains very bright, " he said.
    Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, also agrees with Young. He is confident that the global economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will be the time of Bitcoin's breakthrough. "Bitcoin will remain volatile for the next few months, but the macroeconomic backdrop is what it was created for. This year should be and will be the year of BTC," the billionaire said.
    Philip Salter, Operating Director of Genesis Mining, joins this chorus of voices. He is convinced that the deepening economic crisis will lead to an increase in the popularity of Bitcoin as a tool for hedging the risks of the banking system. "If the development of the economic crisis can be prevented, there will be no major changes to Bitcoin. However, if there is a real collapse, the interest in the first cryptocurrency will take off. The more skepticism about the old economy, the more interest in bitcoin, " the top manager of this popular cloud mining service shared his thoughts.
    As for the nearest forecasts, the well-known trader Ton Weiss is sure that with the current Bitcoin quotes, the probability of falling below the recent low of $3800 is 20-25%. The first cryptocurrency will have even less chance of collapsing to such levels if it overcomes the $6800 level - just 15%. "Going above the $6800 level will give me 85% confidence that we will not go below this level," -Weiss States. In general, 55% of experts expect that the BTC/USD pair will reach the $7,500-8,000 zone within the next few weeks. The remaining 45% of analysts, on the contrary, predict a fall in the pair. In their opinion, BTC/USD will once again try to test the support of $5,700 and, if successful, will again be at the level of $5,000.


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    Forex | Forex Trading | Nordfx.com - NordFX
     
  3. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX Registered

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    CryptoNews

    [​IMG]

    - Microsoft has published a patent application for a device called “Cryptocurrency system that uses data on body activity.” Apparently, the device will be designed to use human energy for mining cryptocurrencies. The document says that this will be a set of sensors with a module that converts the energy of the human body. According to some experts, "brain waves in the process of human activity emit a huge amount of energy, and this type of activity can easily be translated into computing power." Microsoft representatives have not yet commented on the new product, however, according to insider information, the device may appear on sale before the beginning of 2021, unless it is an April Fool’s joke.

    - Messari analyst Cao Wang believes that Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market may exceed 90% by the end of the crisis, instead of the current 66%. According to the expert, "during the period of the entire market drawdown, large investors prefer to work with proven cryptocurrencies. Most often, they choose Bitcoin, since its volatility does not look potentially dangerous. Other coins do not show so good results. We can single out Ethereum among the promising assets, but even it is currently trading in the red zone."
    Cao Wang also drew attention to the fact that many investors prefer to invest in the US dollar at the moment. However, if the global crisis becomes even larger, some of them will rush to the cryptocurrency market, where, due to lack of experience, they will buy Bitcoin, considering it the main and most reliable digital currency.

    - Option traders believe that Bitcoin will not be able to update the historical high of $20,000 this year. According to the Skew analytical platform, the probability of this event is only 4%. Experts say that the May halving has ceased to be a driver of future growth rate of the asset. In all the options that analysts have studied, an extremely small part of speculators bet on Bitcoin exceeding the $10,000 mark. Most of the traders believe that the cryptocurrency will continue to trade in the range of $5,000-6,000.

    - The CEO of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao is often criticized for his overly expressive statements that can encourage subscribers to take irresponsible actions. This time, Zhao called for the purchase of Bitcoins, even on credit. "An insane amount of money will soon flow into the financial system. Buy cryptocurrencies with your Visa cards, " Zhao tweeted.
    Samson Mow, Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream, agrees with Changpeng Zhao. In his opinion, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to print $6.2 trillion to maintain liquidity in connection with the economic crisis makes an excellent advertisement for Bitcoin, which was created just to counterbalance the rampant monetary printing press. "How much did we pay Trump to advertise Bitcoin?"- joked the top manager.
    But another well-known analyst and trader, Peter Brandt, believes that Bitcoin may have "big problems" if it can't demonstrate steady growth against the backdrop of the fall of the traditional financial market.

    - According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of wallets containing at least one BTC coin has grown by 60% in three years and reached a record high of 800 thousand. The previous record was set at the end of 2017, when the exchange rate of the main digital coin set a historical high at $20,000. At that time, the number of such wallets was about 720 thousand. Since then, the number of addresses with a balance of at least one coin has been growing all the time, with the exception of the end of 2018, when the Bitcoin exchange rate collapsed to $3,200, their number fell to 690 thousand.
    Cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, OKEx, Bitfinex, Paxful and Luno also reported an increase in the number of new users against the background of the coronavirus. According to Kraken, the number of registrations on their platform has increased by 83%. "This influx of new users to the exchange is not due to the fact that people have nothing to do in quarantine during the pandemic. Most likely, people want to use the crisis and gain independence from the "outdated" financial system," says Pierre Rochard, a specialist in strategic development at Kraken.

    - Hackers have recently repeatedly broken into popular accounts on YouTube and have used them to arrange fake distributions of cryptocurrencies on behalf of famous people. This time, the scammers hacked more than thirty different YouTube channels, renamed them to allegedly various Microsoft brands, and broadcast through them a speech by Bill Gates in June 2019. At the same time, along with the "live broadcast", the scammers showed ads for a "prize draw", in which users were asked to send a certain amount in cryptocurrencies, which they allegedly would double in response.

    - The Kraken exchange believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $350,000 by 2044. This will be facilitated by the transition of a $68 trillion inheritance of capital from the "baby boomers" to the younger generations. Kraken experts gave a quantitative assessment of the potential flow of inherited capital into Bitcoin. According to their base scenario, with a tax of 2% and a peak of placing funds in the cryptocurrency at 5% of inherited assets, the inflow of investment in Bitcoin will be $971 billion. Based on the difference between the current issue of BTC and the expected figure for 2044, the price of the main cryptocurrency can reach $349,255. Even according to the most conservative estimate of exchange specialists, it will be around $70,000.


    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  4. Beni

    Beni Registered

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    Therefore, Bitcoin quietly moved along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,100-9,500 until Friday.
     
  5. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX Registered

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    CORONAVIRUS: NOT TIME TO GET SICK, TIME TO PROFIT


    [​IMG]

    Because of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the crypto market, Forex, and exchanges are all going down. "This is a great time to make a profit! Go to quarantine, stay at home and ... earn!"- experts of the brokerage company NordFX advise


    The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic continues to control the global markets. Countries are being quarantined, factories and offices are empty, and authorities are urging their citizens not to leave their homes. Of course, it is a forced measure, and there is nothing good about it. But there is still one advantage there: now we have much more time not only for active trading, but also for training and improving our own trading strategies.

    Until recently, many crypto gurus convinced us to invest in Bitcoin, which, they said, was to protect us in the event of a crisis in the traditional markets. However, the onset of the coronavirus proved the complete failure of this theory: it turned out that instead of growing, the main cryptocurrency can fall very quickly along with currencies, oil and stock indexes.
    In just one month from February 12 to March 13, it lost 58% in price, dropping from $10,340 to $4,300. On some exchanges, the drop was even greater: up to $3,815, and reached 63%. Bitcoin lost up to half of its value only in one day from March 12 to 13, dragging the entire crypto market to the bottom. Quite a safe haven!

    And if passive investors who invested money in Bitcoin in the hope that its price, as a result of the halving or just for no reason, will soar to the cosmic heavens, experience only disappointment, active traders, on the contrary, have received another opportunity to make a large profit.

    Recall that international brokers such as NordFX, unlike crypto exchanges, provide traders with significantly more opportunities to increase their capital.

    First, NordFX clients have the opportunity to earn both on the growth and the fall of cryptocurrencies, which is very important in the conditions of such a high market volatility. At the same time, in order to make money on the fall of the Bitcoin, you do not need to have it at all: trading is similar to the CFD contracts for difference. You just open a sell trade in the trading terminal, and if the coin quotes go down, you will get a profit.

    Secondly, this profit can be very high, because the broker provides its clients with the opportunity of margin trading. So, you just need the following to open trades on cryptocurrency pairs in NordFX:
    - $150 to open a position of 1 Bitcoin
    - $15 to open a position of 1 Ethereum
    - $0.3 to open a position of 1 EOS
    - $0.02 to open a position of 1 Ripple.

    That is, to buy or sell 1 Bitcoin at the current price, you do not need to have $6000, but only $150 is enough, which allows you to make a profit 40 times greater than in normal trading without margin. So, in just one month from February 12 to March 13, you could have made a profit of 4000% on the fall of BTC.

    In total, NordFX clients have the opportunity to make transactions with 11 cryptocurrency pairs. The order execution speed is less than 0.5 seconds. Deposits are in US dollars, Bitcoins or Ethereum at the customer's choice, and the minimum deposit is only $10.

    And third, another important point is the ability to hedge transactions on cryptocurrencies, opening parallel positions on the Forex market (33 currency pairs), or trading gold, silver, oil, shares of leading global companies or major stock indices such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc. And here, just as in the case of cryptocurrencies, you can earn not only on the growth of the price of these assets, but also on its fall. At the same time, the broker will immediately, automatically and without any collateral provide you with a leverage of up to 1:1000 for currency pairs. That is, if you have, for example, only $100, you can make transactions worth $100,000.

    Summing up the above, we can say that the onset of the coronavirus is not a time to indulge in boredom, discouragement, and even more so, panic. This is a time to earn money, and self-isolation can bring real benefits to your health and finances. Quarantines begin and end, life goes on!

    Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  6. Stan NordFX

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    Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 06 - 10, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% in March. But the data on the US labor market looks just terrifying: 6.648 million applications for unemployment benefits, this figure has increased by 10 million in two weeks, which is equivalent to 6% of the entire labor force. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector went down: -705K in March instead of +275K in February. Other indicators are no better. It is possible that the unemployment will jump higher than during the great depression. And at the same time, the dollar has been growing all week, taking away more than 350 points from the euro, which indicates that the market was already ready for such a collapse of the US economy and took this into account in its quotes in advance. The dollar was also helped by statements from President Trump and the Saudi Energy Ministry about a possible return to the negotiations in the OPEC+ format and an end to the oil war. Although, there is as little clarity on this front as on the front of the fight against the COVID-19 coronavirus.
    At the end of the week, having made a five-day walk to the south this time, the EUR/USD pair reached a strong support/resistance zone around 1.0800, where it set the final chord;

    - GBP/USD. The most accurate forecast for this pair was given by graphical analysis, which predicted the sideways movement of the pair, which looks truly amazing. The pair stayed in the range of 1.2245-1.2485 for the whole week, and the scope of its fluctuations did not exceed 240 points, which, according to the current violent times, can be considered a flat. Some analysts believe that the reason for this is the increased interest of investors in the sharply cheaper pound in the first two decades of March, which leveled the current problems in the British economy;

    - USD/JPY. A similar pattern to the GBP/USD is also visible on the chart of this pair, which also stayed in a 180-point wide side channel all week (106.90-108.70). And this is despite the fact that the dollar index for the week rose by 2.5%. One of the versions that explains this behavior of both pairs is that investors and speculators were so caught up in the struggle between the two "titans", the dollar and the Euro, that they postponed a serious game on the pound and the yen for the future, when it is clear what is happening with the two leading economies of the world and what the next actions of their regulators are;

    – cryptocurrencies. Recall that when analyzing the situation on the crypto market, we use a seven-day interval from previous Saturday to current Friday. The volatility of BTC/USD during this period was about 23%: having fallen on Monday, March 30 to the level of $5,870, the pair turned around and reached its peak of $7,260 on Thursday, April 02, followed by a rebound down, and the quotes were again below the level of $7,000. If you look at the chart, you can clearly see that for three weeks now, the bulls have been persistently trying to break through this resistance and gain a foothold above $7,000, but to no success so far. Due to the crisis caused by the coronavirus, investors are quite cautious, not risking transferring large amounts of fiat into cryptocurrencies. During the week, the market capitalization of the crypto market has not changed and is at the level of $256 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index does not leave the red zone: it was at 9 two weeks ago, seven days later its value was 12, and now it is 14 out of 100 possible, which still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market.
    As for such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD), they, following the main cryptocurrency, also formed figures called "ascending triangle", trying to rise and gain a foothold above their own resistance zones: Ripple – above $0.18, Litecoin – $41, and Ethereum – $145.

    continued below...
     
  7. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The regulators, both the Fed and the ECB, are now trying to put out the fire by flooding their markets with cheap money. But the fire of the corona crisis was so strong that it could not be controlled quickly. The data on the US economy for March leaves one speechless. But this is not all, the data for April, which we will see in a month, may look much more dramatic. In addition, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is growing day by day, and its policy of easing reduces the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven currency. These arguments allow analysts at Nordea Markets to say that the EUR/USD pair is more likely to return to 1.1500 rather than to fall to 1.0000.
    On the other hand, even in the Eurozone, despite the current account surplus, things are not running smoothly. Germany and other Northern European countries that are members of the EU have recently rejected the offer of Italy, France, Spain and six other Euro zone countries to issue joint bonds – coronabonds. Whether they can overcome their differences will become clear in the very near future, on Tuesday, April 07, a meeting of the Eurogroup consisting of EU Finance Ministers is due to take place, and on Wednesday, April 08, the ECB meeting on monetary policy will be held. Also, the results of the OPEC meeting on Monday April 06 and the results of the Fed meeting on April 08 may affect the formation of trends.
    Meanwhile, 65% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, 75% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators, expect the downtrend to continue and the pair will decline to the lows of March 20-23 in the 1.0650 zone. The next support is at the level of 1.0500, the goal is the low of 1.0340 on January 01, 2017.
    It should be noted that when switching from a weekly to a medium-term forecast, the situation changes radically, and here 65% of analysts expect that the pair will turn around at the end of April – in May, first it will return to the height of 1.1100, then 1.1240, and eventually rise to the level of 1.1500. At the same time, 45% of experts do not exclude that this may happen in the nearest future;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. After such a difficult decision to leave the EU, the British regulators are doing everything possible to stabilize the economic situation. Against this background, 20% of analysts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair's sideways trend to continue in the range of 1.2245-1.2485. 50% of experts expect the channel to break down and reduce the pair to the 1.1640-1.1940 zone. The remaining 30%, on the contrary, side with the bulls, indicating the resistance levels of 1.2475, 1.2625 and 1.2840. As for the indicators, while most of the trend indicators are colored red, there is a complete discord among the oscillators: 25% on D1 signal that the pair is overbought, and the same amount on H4 show that it is oversold;

    - USD/JPY. 60% of analysts expect from this pair a breakout of the 108.70 resistance and a strengthening of the dollar to the level of 111.65. Further growth of the pair remains in question, as several attempts between March 20 and 25 were unsuccessful.
    Bear supporters among experts are now a minority - 40%, the nearest goal is to return to the lower border of the corridor 106.90-108.70. If it is broken through, the pair will first rush to the support of 105.00, then to 103.15, and then to the low of March 09 at the level of 101.15. It is difficult to say how long the pair will be able to cover this distance but considering the recent flights of 700 points a week, it can happen quite quickly.
    As for the indicators, the discord is similar to the GBP/USD. On H4, 70% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are colored green, while the rest are red. On D1, the picture is diametrically opposite. A compromise situation is offered by graphical analysis on H4: first growth to the zone of 111.00, then a sharp drop first to the support of 108.00, and then another 100 points lower;

    – cryptocurrencies. Messari analyst Cao Wang believes that the dominance of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market by the end of the crisis may exceed 90%, instead of the current 66%, as large investors prefer to work with the most reliable and proven coins during the market drawdown. At the same time, according to the Skew analytical platform, based on a survey of option trading participants, the BTC/USD pair will not be able to update the historical maximum of $20,000 this year, the probability of this event is only 4%. An extremely small part of option speculators bets even on a growth above the $10,000 mark.
    However, investors are still pinning their hopes on the printing press launched by the Central banks of the leading countries due to the crisis. "An insane amount of money will soon be poured into the financial system," Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance crypto exchange, tweeted. Samson Mow, Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream, agrees with him. In his opinion, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to print $6.2 trillion makes an excellent advertisement for Bitcoin, which was created just just to counterbalance the rampant monetary printing press. It is logical that, with the surplus of the fiat subject to depreciation, investors will again turn to the cryptocurrency market, and the BTC quotes will go up sharply.
    The data from the analytical service Glassnode also look optimistic, according to which the number of wallets containing at least one BTC coin has reached a record high of 800 thousand. Cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, OKEx, Bitfinex, Paxful and Luno have also reported an increase in the number of new users against the background of the coronavirus. For example, according to Kraken, the number of registrations on their platform has increased by 83%.
    As for the pessimists, we can refer to the well-known analyst and trader Peter Brandt, who believes that Bitcoin may have "big problems" if it can not demonstrate steady growth against the background of the fall of the traditional financial market.
    And in conclusion, another very long-term forecast, which will undoubtedly please even those who once purchased Bitcoin for $20,000 and since then have been watching its quotes with sadness. According to Kraken experts, the price of Bitcoin can reach $350,000 by 2044, which should be facilitated by the transition in the form of a $68 trillion inheritance from "baby boomers" to younger, "digital" generations. So, it's not a total loss, ladies and gentlemen!


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  8. Stan NordFX

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    - The Weiss Ratings rating agency experts believe that completely anonymous cryptocurrencies will help to resist measures to track citizens. Authorities in many countries are now trying to monitor every person to counter the spread of coronavirus or attempts to make money from the epidemic in an illegal way. "But there should be a limit to everything, "the Agency believes, "personal space should not threatened. The same applies to financial transactions that will not affect the coronavirus or the pandemic in any way. If anonymous cryptocurrencies can replace fiat by at least 10 percent, surveillance will not be effective, which is why government bodies will begin to abandon it."

    - According to the head of UnionBank, Edwin Bautista, the transition of the banking sector to cryptocurrency against the background of the coronavirus pandemic looks very realistic. If the situation on the currency market does not stabilize, this measure will be the only one that will save the situation and save the economy. "Now almost all products are paid for online. We may see a period of complete rejection of fiat money in cash. If banks support the initiative of small regulators who already cooperate with cryptocurrency companies, the industry will reach a new level," Bautista believes.

    - The management company VanEck Global experts conclude that against the background of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, bitcoin is increasingly correlated with gold. In the short term, this strengthens the cryptocurrency's status as a safe haven asset. "Bitcoin's correlation with gold has reached a level never seen before," VanEck Global said in a report. However, in the long term, this indicator remains quite low. Experts also stress that the correlation of the main cryptocurrency with the value of the US bonds, which traditionally serve as a safe haven for investors during stock market selloffs, has also increased.

    - P2p platform Paxful has launched Bitcoin trading for physical gold. Paxful consider their offer unique: no other P2P market gives such an opportunity to use gold as a payment for cryptocurrencies. "In a sense, it is symbolic to trade gold in a pair with its virtual embodiment, Bitcoin," commented CEO of the platform Ray Youssef.

    - The analytical company Coinmetrics believes that the current market offer of Bitcoin at 18.3 million coins does not reflect the real liquidity. According to their data, since 2.3 million BTC have been left without movement for more than five years, they are either permanently lost or concentrated in the hands of long-term investors. A similar situation has developed with Bitcoin Cash. After the hard fork in 2017, 6 million BCH were lost sight of, which reduces the real market supply to 12.4 million coins.

    - To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the US largest Bitcoin ATM operator, Bitcoin Depot, has started disabling some of its ATMs. This applies primarily to devices installed in the most crowded places and should help to distance people in the face of the epidemic. "We are monitoring the situation, and the number of ATMs temporarily disconnected from the network is likely to increase," a company representative said. In total, the Bitcoin Depot network has more than 600 bitcoin ATMs in 25 States.

    - The Spanish tax Agency (AEAT) notes that the number of taxpayers carrying out transactions with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has increased four times over the year. For the first time, Spanish crypto investors and traders received notifications from the tax service in 2019, and there were 14,700 people at that time. This year, AEAT will send out similar reminders to 66 thousand taxpayers. At the same time, the Agency stressed that the mailing schedule will not be disrupted, despite the raging COVID-19 epidemic in the country.

    - Mike Stay, who holds a doctorate in computer science and cryptography, published an article about hacking an encrypted zip file. The latter was very valuable, because it stored the keys to Bitcoin wallets with coins worth $300 thousand at the current exchange rate. He was asked to do this by a client who bought cryptocurrency back in 2016 but forgot the password to the archive with keys. This is one of the rare cases when people manage to "find" their long-forgotten Bitcoins. Passwords are usually irrevocably forgotten, flash drives with keys are accidentally thrown out, and it is only these combinations of characters that connect the crypto investor with their assets.

    - Experts are monitoring how North Korea continues to import and export goods despite the fact that numerous sanctions are applied against it. Chainalysis representative Jesse Spiro said in a conversation with CoinDesk that, according to their assumptions, this country uses illegally obtained cryptocurrencies worth $1.5 billion in retail networks and launders stolen money in this way. "The problem of countries that are subject to sanctions is that they need to move money across borders to conduct illegal trade. When it comes to North Korea, there is no doubt that cryptocurrencies are involved."

    - The story of buying two pizzas for 10 thousand Bitcoins is not a fiction at all, but a real story that will celebrate its 10th anniversary on May 22, 2020. Its participants are programmer Laszlo Hanich and Papa John’s pizza delivery man Jeremy Sturdivant. Recall that Bitcoin was less than two years old at that time, the price of each coin was only a fraction of a cent, and there was no experience of payments in cryptocurrency at all. And in that situation, a programmer from Florida, Laszlo Hanich, wrote a request on the Bitcointalk forum that read: "I will pay 10,000 bitcoins for a couple of pizzas, say, for a couple of large ones – so that there is some left for the next day as well." The offer was received by Hanich only on the 4th day, and the transaction took place on Internet Relay Chat (IRC). Jeremy Sturdivant agreed to the payment method, delivering two large Papa John’s pizzas to Hanich, costing $25. Today, 10,000 BTC is worth almost $71 million. It is believed that this was the first ever transaction to buy a real product for Bitcoins. 10, 000 BTC are worth more than $ 71 million now and you can buy 5.6 million pizzas with them!


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  9. Stan NordFX

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    Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 13 - 17, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The Old and the New Worlds continue to compete to see who will pour more money into their economies. But what is the old Europe compared to the United States! On Thursday, April 10, after many days of discussion, the EU Finance Ministers narrowly reached a compromise, concluding a deal on measures to support their countries in the amount of "some" €500 billion. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve announced the launch of another $2.3 trillion support program. At the same time, the Head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that his Department will most likely not stop there and will do everything in order to restore the US economy as quickly as possible after the epidemic.
    Powell is to be trusted in this regard. And the point here is not only the COVID-19, but also that 2020 is the year of the next US Presidential election, and Donald Trump really wants to stay in the White House for a second term. The growth of the US economy has been a major asset in his fight for the presidency.
    The unwinding flywheel of the quantitative easing program in the United States could not but put pressure on the dollar, and the USDX index closed trading below the psychological level of 100.0 on April 09. As for the EUR/USD pair, the dollar began to retreat starting from Monday. However, this retreat was not as panicky as in the last week of March, when the pair overcame 510 points. Now the euro has grown by less than 200 points, after which the pair ended the five-day period in the 1.0940 zone, and did not reach the landmark level of 1.1000;

    - GBP/USD. The dollar retreated against the pound as well. Besides the above, an additional factor that supported the British currency was the continued growth of borrowing rates in pounds in London and a decrease in borrowing rates in US dollars.
    Recall that, giving a forecast for the past week, 20% of analysts had expected the continuation of the sideways trend of the pair in the range of 1.2245-1.2485, and another 30% – its movement from the lower to the upper border of this channel, indicating the level of 1.2475 as resistance. As a result, the overall forecast of these experts turned out to be correct: having failed to fall below the support of 1.2200, the pair turned north and ended the trading session at 1.2470;

    - USD/JPY. 60% of analysts had expected this pair to break the 108.70 resistance and the dollar to strengthen to the level of 111.65. The breakthrough occurred, however, the volatility of the Japanese currency was surprisingly low, and the growth of the pair stopped at the height of 109.37, after which it returned to where it started on Monday, to the zone of 108.40;

    – cryptocurrencies. Some experts, trying to improve the status of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, convince us that digital gold can become a safe haven for investors on a par with real gold. Thus, specialists of the management company VanEck Global concluded that "the correlation of Bitcoin with gold has reached an unprecedented level" against the background of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Indeed, the quotes of both assets are now growing. The XAU/USD and BTC/USD charts show that since March 16, 2020, the gold has risen by 16%, while Bitcoin has grown by as much as 55%. However, if you move just 4 days and start counting not from March 16, but from March 20, the picture will be completely different: the gold has grown by almost 14%, but the increase in the price of Bitcoin over the past three weeks was equal to ... zero.
    This suggests that with its ultra-volatility, bitcoin remains a great tool for short-term speculation. But to use it as a safe haven and, even more so, an object for investment, is still questionable. By the way, analysts from VanEck Global agree with this, noting that they only meant a short period of time. In the long term, the correlation between XAU/USD and BTC/USD remains quite low.
    In our previous forecast, we noted that, starting from March 20, the main cryptocurrency is unsuccessfully trying to gain a foothold above the $7,000 level. The past week was no exception. The bulls broke through this resistance on April 06 and even reached the height of $7,440, but they again lost their positions on Friday, and the pair fell to the $6,850-6,900 zone.
    As for the total capitalization of the crypto market, it has not changed much over the week and is around $193 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also not changed, it still indicates the presence of strong fear in the market, having risen by just one point over the week, from 14 to 15.
    Such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD) followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency, but, in contrast, they were still in the green zone in the afternoon of Friday, April 10, showing a weekly increase from 5% (Litecoin and Ripple) to 10% (Ethereum).

    continued below...
     
  10. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Needless to say, the situation with the coronavirus epidemic in the United States is very difficult, and the economy of this country is teetering on the verge of a deep depression. To support its producers, the Fed has launched a quantitative easing program and, starting on March 16, has already purchased $1.19 trillion in Treasury bonds. The regulator will buy more securities worth $150 billion next week, which will continue to put pressure on the dollar. This is why 65% of experts expect the EUR/USD uptrend to continue. The resistance levels are 1.1000, and 1.1240 1.1150.
    On the other hand, the dollar is still the best currency during the crisis. It was this fact that stopped its active sales last week and is quite capable, according to the remaining 35% of analysts, to reverse the trend to the south again. The targets are 1.1100 and 1.1175;
    One can understand what the indicators show just by looking at the charts of the pair. On D1, everything is quite colorful¬: there are about the same amounts of green, red and neutral gray colors. On H4, of course, green dominates, but 25% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone.
    As for the macroeconomic indicators, one should first of all pay attention to the retail sales and the number of initial unemployment claims in the US, which will be known on April 15 and April 16, respectively. Also, the data on China's GDP will help to assess the impact of the coronavirus on the economy, which will be released on Friday April 17;

    - GBP/USD. The British currency is now in good demand due to the difference between the rates for the pound and the dollar in the interbank lending market. However, everything can change in an instant. That is why experts' forecasts cannot be brought to any common denominator: 40% vote for the pair's growth, 35% – for its fall, and 25% simply shrug their shoulders.
    The pair is in the side channel for the second week, holding in the range of 1.2200-1.2485, and it will start from its upper border on Monday, April 13. Graphical analysis on H4 shows its further growth to the horizon of 1.2600 and a subsequent fall to the support of 1.2200. The range of fluctuations is slightly larger on D1: first rising to the height of 1.2650, and then falling to the level of 1.2175. The situation with the indicators is generally similar to the readings on the EUR/USD, 25% of the oscillators on both timeframes indicate that the pair is overbought;

    - USD/JPY. The number of dollars in the global financial system, the yield on the US Treasury bonds, stock indices and oil quotes, the state of the economy of China - all these factors affect the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven currency. The zero result of the USD/JPY pair last week indicates that the market has not yet decided what to do with the Japanese currency, buy or sell. Most likely, we should not expect any independent movements from this pair, and its dynamics will reflect the overall market mood relative to the US dollar.
    Meanwhile, 60% of experts vote for a further weakening of the dollar and the fall of the pair to around 107.00. The next support is in the 104.75-105.15 zone. The alternative view is supported by 40% of analysts. Resistance levels are 109.35, 110.15 and 111.70;

    – cryptocurrencies. According to the Head of UnionBank, Edwin Bautista, the transition of the banking sector to cryptocurrency against the background of the coronavirus pandemic looks very realistic. If the situation in the currency market does not stabilize, this measure will be the only one that will save the situation and keep the economy running. "Now almost all products are paid for online. We may see a period of complete rejection of fiat money in cash. If banks support the initiative of small regulators who already cooperate with cryptocurrency companies, the industry will reach a new level," Bautista believes.
    But the statement of the Head of UnionBank is at least a medium-term forecast. And what awaits us in the near future? Mid-April is the beginning of the corporate reporting season. And the indicators of both individual companies and entire sectors of the economy are very likely to be extremely low. The Fed and the ECB continue to flood the fire with cheap liquidity, which will cause a powerful wave of inflation.
    In such a situation, and especially if there is an excess mass of fiat money, speculators may again decide to play the card of Bitcoin as a safe haven currency. In this case, Bitcoin will soon not just break the $7,000 and $7,400 levels, but also aim above the $8,000 mark. 60% of experts vote for this development.
    There is, of course, the opposite, the bearish scenario, supported by 40% of analysts. And it also depends largely on what will happen in the US, where class-action lawsuits were filed a week ago against four major Bitcoin exchanges and seven ICO projects, including Binance, BitMex and EOS. These lawsuits allege possible violations of U.S. law by the defendants, including the rules for the issuance and circulation of securities. And if the SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) grabs this case with a dead bulldog grip, Bitcoin will quickly break through the support of $6,700, and we will again see the pair in the region of $6,000.
    [​IMG]


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  11. Stan NordFX

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    - The FBI reported the crypto scam to activate against the background of the coronavirus pandemic. Secret services have also compiled a list of most common types of fraud related to finance:
    - Blackmail. Criminals send out phishing fake emails, which state that they already have access to the users' personal data. In exchange for passwords, they require payment in Bitcoins. According to experts, it is quite often that the scammers' statements have nothing to do with reality, but people still believe them.
    - Donations. This type of criminal activity has become most popular against the background of the coronavirus pandemic. The scammers say they are raising money for the transfer of funds supporting healthcare organizations and COVID-19 patients.
    - Investments. Criminals began to launch new scams that look very realistic. These organizations call to invest in new assets or the purchase of mining equipment.

    - Despite the fact that the number of transactions on crypto scam addresses has grown during the crisis caused by COVID-19, their incomes have declined, according to Chainalysis analyst firm. The amount of funds received by the scammers per day has fallen by 61% in the period from March 13 to the end of the month. The index rose just above $ 400,000 in early April. For comparison, it reached almost $800 thousand in January.

    - The head of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz said in an interview for Bloomberg TV, that the Bitcoin time has come. Less than a month is left before the halving takes place, as a consequence, investors should be prepared for serious differences of cost of the basic cryptocurrency, and if the optimistic scenario of the miners' awards halving is to be implemented, then now is the time to buy Bitcoins.
    The large-scale expansion of the crypto sphere has already begun. If the trend continues, the bitcoin capitalization will increase by several times by the time of the halving. The popularity of not only digital assets, but also of blockchain is apparentas well. Many countries start to use a blockchain registry even in public areas. An example of this can be China, which has even created a special commission to develop the blockchain. All this takes place during the coronavirus pandemic. When the situation is normalized, there may happen a real technological leap", said the billionaire.

    - Finance expert Dan Toper expresses his opinion as to what can interfere with the growth of Bitcoin. According to the expert, it is a policy of the US government, trying to provoke a stock market recovery. "The USA are trying by all means to restore the economy, but the process may be delayed due to the pandemic, and a number of other important circumstances, including the dollar depreciation. Due to the support of the fiat market, Bitcoin does not receive the support of investors, resulting in the opposite effect', says Toper. The expert noted that the Bitcoin decline of 20 percent in March with just one instance of drawdown by about 50 percent indicates an increased correlation of the market of digital assets and securities. The correlation of the main coin with the gold and the dollar is gradually reduced, which can be seen on the price fluctuations.

    - One-third of those who have nothing to do with cryptocurrency, associate digital assets with the purchase of weapons and drugs. In fact, cryptocurrency owners often use it to pay for everyday goods. These results have been published by the Visual Objects consulting agency. The statistics experts found that most often the digital assets owners have spent them on food (38%), clothes (34%) and equities (29%). At the same time, drugs and weapons purchase was admitted by 15% and 11% respectively.

    - evening of April 10 The Bitfinex crypto exchange implemented the ever largest transaction of 161 500 BTC, or about $1.1 billion which is the largest in the Bitcoin history in dollar terms. At the same time the commission was only 0.00010019 BTC, or $0.68. Thus, this transaction can be considered unique in Bitcoin history not only in terms of a transfer, but also in terms of the commission paid, of less than one dollar. Of course, this is another example of the superiority of cryptocurrency over the traditional banking system. A similar bank transfer would not only take a few days but would cost the sender an amount with a few zeros in the form of commissions. not to mention the need to explain the origin of the funds.

    - Due to the inability of the authorities to manage cryptocurrency, the crisis will have a positive impact on its spread. This was said by economist, Professor John Vaz of the Australian Monash University in an interview with news portal Cointelegraph. "The more errors on the part of regulatory agencies, the higher the chances of success for the digital assets", the expert believes. "The strange thing is that some see the dollar now as a tool for to preserve the value. This is probably the most poorly managed asset. In this aspect cryptocurrencies are more attractive, since there are no banks or governments who steal losses and privatize profits on them."

    - Last week, the Taiwanese manufacturer HTC Electronics announced that it will allow EXODUS 1S smartphone owners mine cryptocurrency Monero (XMR). According to the developers, this approach is more efficient than the use of ordinary home computers. The co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin lashed out against this. "The mining on the phone is a game for fools. It is contrary to everything we know about savings on the scale in equipment, and probably this action is aimed at deceiving users by means of false hopes, rather than a real help", he wrote.

    - The number of addresses that store more than 1000 BTC, has increased to the two years' high. GlassNode agency experts said that cryptocurrency holders actively accumulate positions over the past two weeks in anticipation of the main coin's halving. "The number of major Bitcoin holders began to increase almost immediately after the March collapse of the value of the base currency. Many investors decided then to get rid of the fiat savings, transferring them into cryptocurrency. Now all rely on at least a double jump of Bitcoin, but it is difficult to make such predictions in the conditions of daily changes in the situation", GlassNode analysts say.


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  12. Stan NordFX

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    Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 20 - 24, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has amounted to 22 million over the past four weeks. For comparison, this figure remained at the level of about 930 thousand in the previous few years. In other words, the unemployment has increased 23 times! The number of employed in the US was just over 150 million, so the losses caused by the COVID-19 crisis approached 15% of all jobs.
    Major banks, such as Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, have updated their forecasts and expect that the collapse of the US economy could reach a catastrophic 40%. And the head of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, James Boulard, said that every third American will be left without work soon.
    But things are not better in Europe, and this keeps the EUR/USD pair from sharp fluctuations. The actions of the Administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate the U.S. economy also help the dollar. As a result, the maximum volatility last week was less than 180 points, which at present time can be considered flat. As for the final changes in quotes, the figure is even lower: the pair lost only 70 points in five days, ending the session at 1.0870;

    - GBP/USD. The British currency also shows “Olympic calm”, even though both the IMF and domestic forecasts predict that Britain's economy may be among the most affected by the pandemic, and the decline in the GDP in the second quarter could reach 35 per cent.$ For the third week in a row, the GBP/USD pair returns to 1.2500 again and again. According to some experts, now, while the attention of investors is focused on S&P500 and the dollar, the pound received a respite after the collapse in the second decade of March and the subsequent correction.
    As the graphical analysis on H4 predicted, the pound went up at the beginning of the week, reached a height of 1.2650, then turned around and sank to the horizon of 1.2400. The final chord sounded around the three-week Pivot Point, at 1.2500;

    — USD/JPY. 60% of experts voted last week for further weakening of the dollar and decrease of the pair to marks around 107.00. This forecast turned out to be 100% correct: the pair reached its target on Wednesday, April 15, after which it rebounded and moved sideways in the narrow channel 107.15-108.05, completing the five-day period in its central part, at the level of 107.60;

    – cryptocurrencies. It became known last week that the number of addresses, which store more than 1000 BTC, has increased to a two-year high. GlassNode agency experts said that cryptocurrency holders over the past two weeks have been actively accumulating positions in anticipation of the main coin halving. In their opinion, many investors are counting on a jump in bitcoin at least twice. But, GlassNode analysts warn, relying on such forecasts is not worth it, as the situation in the crisis caused by COVID-19 is changing daily.
    Crypto scammers have also become more active against the background of the pandemic. The FBI even compiled a list of the most common types of such fraud, including blackmail with the threat of hacking personal data and collecting alleged donations to fight the coronavirus.
    Interestingly, despite the increase in the number of transactions to the addresses of crypto-currency scammers, their income has decreased. According to Chainalysis. in early April, the amount of daily funds received by scammers was a little more than $400 thousand, while in January it was twice as much.
    We noted in our previous forecasts that, starting from March 20, the main cryptocurrency has been unsuccessfully trying to gain a foothold above the $7,000 level. Last week was no exception. The battle of bulls and bears continues with varying success, keeping the main cryptocurrency in the channel $6,550-7,180. As for the total capitalization of the crypto market, it has not changed much during the week and is in the region of $200 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not changed either. Having stopped at the level of 15 out of 100 possible, it still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market.
    Such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD), as usual, followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. Ethereum was slightly different, showing a 6.5% increase over the seven-day period.

    continued below...
     
  13. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. If in the medium-term market expectations look rather gloomy, in the short term the plans to resuscitate the U.S. economy, announced by President Trump, have had a positive impact. The decline in the rate of coronavirus infection in the United States also helped. Some investors, having rejected macroeconomic data and forecasts, looked at the future with optimism, citing China as an example, where 100% of large companies and about 80% of small ones have already returned to normal operation.
    At the moment, 60% of the experts, supported by 65% of the indicators on H4 and D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the pair to fall to the level of 1.0750. The next target is a low of 1.0635. The remaining 40% of analysts still doubt the dollar, expecting the pair to grow at least to the height of 1.1000, and then, perhaps, 100 points higher.
    Business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, are among the events of the upcoming week. All this data will be published on Thursday, April 23. The dynamics of orders for durable goods in the USA, which we will see on Friday, April 24, can also influence the formation of local trends;

    - GBP/USD. On Thursday, April 23, business activity indicators will become known not only in Germany and the Eurozone, but also in the UK. In addition, unemployment data will be published on Tuesday, April 21, and the UK consumer price index on Wednesday, April 22.
    As mentioned above, according to forecasts, this country may be among the most affected by the coronavirus, and unemployment can reach values comparable to the United States. The political and economic risks associated with Brexit have not been canceled either, there remains a lot of unresolved issues. However, investors hope that the final divorce from the EU will be postponed for a longer period or, at least in the current situation, the islanders will be able to trade better terms from Europe.
    In this situation of uncertainty, the analysts' forecasts for the next week and month look equally uncertain: 15% of them vote for the growth of the pair, 25% - for its fall, and 60% simply shrugged. Indicator readings on H4 are also neutral, while on D1 75% of oscillators and 60% of trend indicators are colored green.
    As for the graphical analysis, the picture here is somewhat different: on H4 and D1, it first draws a decline in the pair to supports 1.2335 and 1.2200, respectively, and then its return to the levels of 1.2500 and 1.2650;

    - USD/JPY. The 107.00 zone has been a significant level of support/resistance for the yen for months and even years. It is close to it that the pair has been moving for the past few days. The vast majority of analysts (70%) predict that the pair will again try to break this level from top to bottom and, if successful, will drop to the 105.80 horizon. The next targets are 105.00 and 104.40.
    Opponents of this development (they are 30%) believe that after the dramatic events of February-March, the yen has returned to the 107.60-110.00 corridor, where it will stay for the next few weeks. The nearest resistance is 108.40.
    Indicators on both timeframes recommend opening short positions, but 15% of oscillators already signal that the pair is oversold;
    [​IMG]

    – cryptocurrencies. - The head of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz said in an interview for Bloomberg TV, that the Bitcoin time has come. Less than a month is left before the halving, which is why investors should be prepared for serious changes in the cost of the main cryptocurrency, and if the optimistic scenario for sharing rewards for miners is implemented, now is the time to buy bitcoins. "If the trend continues, the capitalization of bitcoin will increase several times before halving," the billionaire believes.
    Talking about the growing popularity of digital assets, Mike Novograts cites China as an example. But what will happen to bitcoin, when in addition to the paper yuan, there will also be a digital one? It is quite possible that it will pull on a significant share of investors' funds, primarily Chinese. So, in terms of the prospects of the main cryptocurrency, not everything is so rosy.
    In addition, US authorities, whose goal is to restore the securities market, can also hinder the growth of bitcoin. “The USA are trying to rebuild the economy by all means, but the process can be delayed due to the pandemic and a number of other important circumstances, including the depreciation of the dollar. Due to the support of the fiat market, Bitcoin does not receive investor support,” said Dan Topier, a financier. In his opinion, the fall of bitcoin by 20% in March with a single case of drawdown by about 50%, speaks about increased correlation of the market of digital assets and securities. The connection of the main coin with gold and dollar is gradually decreasing.
    Returning to the weekly forecasts and the possibility of the BTC/USD pair overcoming the resistance of $7,000, we note that 60% of experts vote for the pair's growth to the $7,200-7,800 zone. Interestingly, unlike Mike Novogratz, none of the analysts expect that the main cryptocurrency will be able to increase its value many times as a result of halving. The most ambitious forecasts barely reach the height of $9,000, and 35% of experts still expect the quotes to fall to the level of $5,700-6,000.


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  14. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX Registered

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    NordFX Stocks Account: Buy on Panic, Sell on Euphoria


    At the moment, stocks of 68 companies, including IBM, JP Morgan Chase, Coca-Cola, Mastercard, McDonalds, Microsoft, Volkswagen, UBER, eBay, Alibaba, Deutsche Bank and many others, are offered for trading to traders and investors.

    [​IMG]

    Trading is conducted on the well-known MetaTrader-4 platform. You can earn both on the growth and fall of stocks, opening both short and long positions on CFD contracts with a leverage of 1:5. The total commission for a round-turn transaction is only 0.2%. It should be borne in mind that a long position held at the dividend date receives the dividend amount, while the short position pays the dividend amount.

    A clear advantage of the new account is the absence of a minimum deposit, which opens access to transactions on shares even for traders with limited financial resources. The minimum transaction volume is 1 lot, i.e. 1 share. And, for example, if the current share price of Amazon.com inc. is $1,850, which is a fairly large amount, the price of Hewlett Packard shares is $14, and Ford Motor Company is even less, only about $4. So, even with only $100, a trader can apply a variety of trading strategies and create different investment portfolios.

    We know the old stock exchange rule: "buy on panic, sell on euphoria". Now, with the fear of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and the oil wars reigning on the stock markets, it may be time to think about opening long positions. This is especially true for the shares of those companies whose products and services may be most in demand during such a crisis. And this applies not only to pharmaceutical giants. For example, shares of Amazon.com went up by 15% in less than 10 days, from 12 to 19 March 2020. Twitter shares are also growing in recent days: well, what else can people locked in quarantine do but communicate on social networks?

    In addition to trading stocks, NordFX clients also have the opportunity to make transactions with currencies, cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, oil, and major stock indexes such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others.
    You can learn more about the trading instruments specifications, as well as open an account, at the NordFX website or through the Trader's Cabinet.


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  15. Stan NordFX

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    CryptoNews


    [​IMG]

    - Some Bitcoin miners are at danger due to negative oil prices. Miners are actively looking for cheap electricity in anticipation of the halving in order to keep competitive. In North America, several of these firms use energy from a gas torch generated by oil extraction or refining. And if the oil companies close under pressure of low or negative prices, it will hit the miners. The Great American Mining founder Marty Brent said in a comment for CoinDesk that just one field he works with can provide hundreds of megawatts for mining. According to the publication, such companies will remain profitable even if Bitcoin does not grow in 2020. But oil prices are one of the key variables in their business model.
    - Malaysian law enforcement officers arrested Chinese attackers accused of cryptocurrency fraud. This is reported by news agency South China Morning Post. According to the police, the detainees formed groups in WeChat and QQ, where they persuaded potential investors to invest in their allegedly successful projects. A total of 14 people were arrested, who, in addition to 10 years of imprisonment for fraud, also face a fine and up to six lashes for violation of immigration legislation.

    - According to a survey conducted by The Economist magazine commissioned by Crypto.com, 26% of respondents trust cryptocurrencies, while 38% of respondents believe cryptocurrencies unreliable. But the digital currencies of Central banks (CBDC) are trusted by the majority of respondents (54%). Among the main obstacles to the adoption of cryptocurrencies, respondents pointed to a lack of understanding of their application areas (44%) and technology safety (32%). In most cases (34%) cryptocurrencies are used for online payments, another 24% consider them as a short-term investment, 23% - as a long-term investment.

    - U.S. citizens have started to receive $1200 allocated by the government as financial support during the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, the number of deposits of exactly the same amount on the American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have increased by 4 times, as its head Brian Armstrong said in his Twitter account.

    - According to analyst Peter Brandt, crypto traders should be cautious about the current market situation. During the discussion on Twitter Brandt noted that corporations hardly use cryptocurrencies, and, therefore, one should not expect them to support the cryptocurrency revolution. And although many accept Bitcoin as a means of storing wealth, this will not affect its rate. “What percentage of world trade is made through cryptocurrency? How many international corporations do their business with Bitcoin?" the expert asked. At the same time, he noted that over time, enterprises, especially financial organizations, will gradually switch to the use of digital currencies, but it will not necessarily be Bitcoin. In March, Peter Brandt wrote that BTC could fall to $1,000. In his opinion, if you look at the chart "without bias", the bottom may be even lower than this value.

    - During the online crypto conference BlockDown, the CEO of ShapeShift (a company that offers digital asset trading via web and mobile platforms) Eric Voorhees predicted the future of the flagship cryptocurrency. He noted that Bitcoin has many opportunities for growth. So, the upcoming halving of block rewards may become a catalyst that will push its price to new historical highs. “I believe that it is possible the Bitcoin rate exceeds $50,000 in twelve months, the probability of this event is quite high - 80%”, Voorhees said. In his opinion, as unemployment rises and oil prices fall, investors will simply need a quiet harbour, which can be cryptocurrencies to a certain extent. But Voorhees said that he could be "completely wrong, because it is stupid to try to predict such things."

    - Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital investment company Anthony Pompliano has announced in a recent interview that Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of a new long-term growth of 1288% — from current levels of $7,200 to $100,000. According to Pompliano, the macroeconomic background and the May halving will be the main reasons for the rise in the Bitcoin price, and the printing of money by Central banks around the world will force people to invest in anti-inflationary assets.

    - Another forecast is given by the cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave. In July 2019, he gave a correct prediction of a decline in the BTC from $11,600 to $6,000 by the end of the year, saying that the first cryptocurrency was up to a parabolic drop. Now he has updated his long-term forecast using curve models based on the BTC price history. In his opinion, the bitcoin volatility will decline, but it will still face a few ups and downs. Dave the Wave expects the first cryptocurrency to grow to $130,000 by 2023 and then gradually decline to $40,000. Then, the Bitcoin exchange rate will again gradually grow, and by 2029 it could reach $400,000.


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  16. Stan NordFX

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    Forex, Cryptocurrencies, Stocks. Forecast for April 27- May 01, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. While in the United States, decisions to allocate money to revive the economy are made quickly enough, in the Euro Zone this is a process that requires a long discussion and agreement between the participating countries. And this can not but put pressure on the euro. So, at its meeting on April 23, the European Council seems to have reached an agreement on measures to help the economy, suggesting that the European Commission create a Recovery Fund in the amount of approx. €1 trillion, but they could not clearly agree as to where to get this money from.
    The US administration continues to flood its economy with money. The decision on the next tranche of almost $0.5 trillion, which, for the most part, will be used to support small businesses, was made last week. Apparently, such steps are beginning to bring results. At least the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 15% in the United States, while orders for capital goods rose from -0.8% to 0.1%.
    The result of this distribution of forces was a smooth weakening of the Euro by about 100 points, which fully confirmed the forecast given by the majority (60%) of our experts, who had expected to see the pair in the 1.0750 support zone. This was followed by a correction and the pair finished at 1.0820;

    - GBP/USD. Analysts' forecasts for the future of the British currency were quite vague. As for the dynamics of the pair, it was most accurately described by graphical analysis that predicted its decline in the first half of the week and the subsequent correction to the north in the second half. And so it happened: at first the pair felt for the local bottom at the level of 1.2245, then rose to the level of 1.2415, and completed the five-day period in the zone of 1.2365;

    - USD/JPY. The 107.00 zone has been a significant level of support/resistance for months and even years. It is close to it that the pair has been moving for the past few days. The vast majority of analysts (70%) expected that bears would try to break this level from top to bottom, which they did throughout the week. However, none of the attempts was successful, the bears were not even able to approach the treasured horizon. As a result, the pair stayed in a very narrow side channel, 107.25-108.00, inside which, at the level of 107.40, it ended the trading session;

    – cryptocurrencies. Last week was very successful for Bitcoin. Throughout its first half, a fight continued for the height of $7,000. It started on March 20, and, as most analysts (60%) had expected, the victory, in the end, was with the bulls. On Thursday, April 23, the price of the main cryptocurrency reached the mark of $7.750 — the highest value Bitcoin has been able to rise to after the market collapse on March 12-13. Thus, the growth over this period has amounted to about 100%.
    In addition to the upcoming BTC halving, the cryptocurrency market was assisted, according to several analysts, by the growing correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market (S&P 500) and oil. Bitcoin is still a risky asset, but it is gradually attracting more and more attention from serious investors. According to such an authoritative publication as Bloomberg, now that the world is in crisis, and states are printing huge amounts of money, Bitcoin has every chance of becoming a quasi-currency like a digital version of gold. And the researchers believe, it will successfully cope with this task.
    After a dash of the BTC/USD pair to the height of $7,750, a rebound followed and on Friday, April 24, the pair moved to a sideways movement in a fairly narrow channel of $7,440-7,600. The total capitalization of the crypto market has passed the mark of $215 billion, adding about 7% over the week, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown from 15 to 20.
    As for the top altcoins, their growth was much more modest. Ethereum (ETH/USD) grew by 8%, Ripple (XRP/USD) - by 2.5%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) returned to the Pivot Point level in the first half of April;

    – stock market. Since the NordFX brokerage company offers its customers trading not only in the Forex and crypto markets, but also in transactions with stocks, stock indices, as well as investments in special investment funds, we decided to expand our review to this very important segment of financial markets.
    The US stock market has been growing lately amid the news of the adoption by the Senate of a law on the allocation of additional state support in the amount of $ 484 billion. The growth of risk assets was also helped by expectations of a gradual resumption of economic activity. Two US States have already announced the partial lifting of the quarantine, and several more States are in line. Decisions on easing restrictions have also been made in a number of European countries.
    Last week, the leaders of online services such as Amazon, Netflix, Apple showed their best performance, although Amazon is considered the choice of consumers, while Apple and Google are the communication services. But the shares of oil companies, in the conditions of the fall of the nearest futures for “black gold” to negative levels, did not please either their owners or traders who opened the they have long positions.

    continued below...
     
  17. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The US Federal Reserve continues to flood the markets with fantastic amounts of dollar liquidity, which, in theory, should lead to a depreciation of the dollar. But it's just a theory. According to forecasts, the us budget deficit will be $3.8 trillion or 18.6% of GDP, and the national debt will grow to 107% of GDP. However, the cost of servicing this debt will remain at the same acceptable level of 2% of GDP. This is due to falling rates on US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the external demand for US government debt is still high, which gives the Fed additional opportunities for an even softer monetary policy. Of course, this will not save the United States from a recession, but the damage to the European economy is expected to be much greater.
    Among the most important events, first of all, we should pay attention to the decisions of the Fed and the ECB on interest rates and the comments of their management on April 30. Also, on Thursday, a whole block of macroeconomic indicators will be released, including data on the labor market in Germany, the United States, and the Eurozone. In addition, we will learn about the state of the consumer market and the GDP of the Eurozone.
    A day earlier, on Wednesday, the US GDP data will be released, and a day later, on Friday, the US manufacturing ISM and employment indices will be published.
    At the time of writing this forecast, the vast majority of analysts (80%), supported by 70% of the oscillators and 90% of the trend indicators on D1, expect further strengthening of the dollar and a fall of the pair. Support levels are 1.0775, 1.0725, the target is 1.0650.
    Only 20% of experts support the growth of the pair, with graphical analysis on H4 on their side. The resistance levels are 1.1000, 1.1065, 1.1100 and 1.1150;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. As we have already written, Britain is projected to be among the countries most affected by coronavirus. The political and economic risks associated with Brexit have not been reversed either. However, investors hope that the final solution of issues related to withdrawal from the EU will be postponed for a longer period or, at least, in the current situation, the British will be able to bargain from Europe more advantageous terms.
    Most experts, as in the case of EUR/USD, expect the pair to fall. However, in this case there are significantly fewer of them – 60%. 85% of trend indicators and only 40% of oscillators on D1 are colored red. 15% of the oscillators vote for the growth of the pair, the rest remain neutral. Graphical analysis on D1 expects that the pair will first fall to the horizon of 1.2200, and then rise to the height of 1.2525.
    Support levels are 1.2245, 1.2200, 1.2165, 1.2000. Resistance levels are 1.2485, 1.2525, 1.2650 and 1.2725;

    - USD/JPY. No one seems to care about this pair right now. And no matter what the Bank of Japan does at its meeting on Tuesday, April 28, this will not affect the attitude of investors. Although, with a high probability, surprises from the Japanese regulator should not be expected.
    Indicators on both timeframes are overwhelmingly red (75-100%), which indicates that the bears will again rush to break through the support of 107.00. If successful, the pair may drop to the 105.80 horizon. The next targets are 105.00 and 104.40, but with the extremely low volatility of the past week, their achievement is unlikely.
    Experts appear to be looking at the narrow corridor where the pair were trapped. Therefore, unlike the indicators, their opinions are divided almost equally: 55% support the bears, 45% - the bulls. The nearest resistance is 108.00, then 108.50 and 109.50;

    – cryptocurrencies. More and more voices have been heard recently foreshadowing the main cryptocurrency with a very successful year. The reasons, in addition to the May halving of Bitcoin, have been voiced many times. This is a general negative macroeconomic background, massive printing of money by Central banks, rising unemployment and falling oil prices. Thanks to precisely these factors, ShapeShift CEO Eric Voorhees believes that in twelve months the Bitcoin exchange rate could reach $ 50,000 with a 80% probability.
    Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of investment company Morgan Creek Digital, agrees with Voorhees, having declared that BTC is on the threshold of a new long-term trend: from current levels to $100,000.
    Another forecast is given by the cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave. In July 2019, he gave a correct prediction of a decline in the BTC from $11,600 to $6,000 by the end of the year, saying that the first cryptocurrency was up to a parabolic drop. Now, he updated his long-term forecast using curve models based on the BTC price history. In his opinion, the Bitcoin volatility will decline, but it will still face a few ups and downs. Dave the Wave expects the first cryptocurrency to grow to $130,000 by 2023 and then gradually decline to $40,000. Then, the Bitcoin exchange rate will again gradually grow, and by 2029 it could reach $400,000.
    Bloomberg analysts expect a decrease in volatility in their medium-term outlook, and this, in their opinion, is a very important observation: it was the unusually low level of volatility that was observed in October 2015 that became a harbinger of a bull rally, with the Bitcoin price rising to historic highs in December 2017. They believe that such a rally, can happen again now.
    65% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to grow in the coming week, although the targets here are much more modest and are far from $100,000, and even more so from $ 400,000. The minimum task for the bulls, in their opinion, is to secure the pair in the zone of $7,750-8.250. And then, pushing off from it, break through resistance at $ 9,000.
    The remaining 35% of experts believe that the pair will continue to fluctuate at the level of $6,700-7,400, and in case of breakdown of its lower border, it may drop to support around $6,000.

    – stock market. Last week, online services such as Amazon, Netflix, and Apple were in the lead. According to forecasts, in the coming days we will also hear about the “big TECH five”.
    Amazon, the giant of e-commerce and cloud computing, is a clear beneficiary of quarantine, as is Netflix. Amazon is expected to grow 22% and 21% over the next two quarters. Apple rose 82% in 2019 compared to 32% of S&P500 in the year, where revenue fell by 2% and EPS (company's earnings per share) remained unchanged.
    In the second quarter, EPS for Google and Facebook is expected to grow by 35% yoy and will have positive revenue growth. Microsoft is expected to show stronger growth in the second quarter of this year, which is highly unusual in terms of quarantine and travel ban for people.


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  18. Stan NordFX

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    [​IMG]

    - The head of the CoinCorner exchange, Danny Scott, said that the financial crisis against the background of the coronavirus pandemic is forcing more and more investors to turn to bitcoin. "If the situation with the fiat, stock markets and oil does not stabilize, you can expect the coin for 20 thousand dollars or even more after the halving. Fiat money that even ordinary citizens receive as part of support can be converted to cryptocurrency. People are beginning to fear that the dollar will lose stability and cease to be an asset with minimal volatility," Scott believes.
    Confirmation of Scott's words was the news that the number of bitcoin holders with 0.1 coins in their account reached a record level – as of April 24, there were already more than 3 million such addresses.

    - The joke of CoinDesk journalist Zack Voell can be considered a success. He designed his account in the style of the popular Twitter service Whale Alert, and with its help he distributed fake news about the transfer to the Coinbase exchange of 65 thousand. BTC (over $ 500 million) from the Trezor wallet, allegedly owned by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Later, when the post spread online and to a number of media outlets, Voell deleted it: according to the journalist, he was very surprised that many media took the tweet seriously at all. Although, why be surprised: the fate of bitcoins, which are supposedly in the possession of the North Korean authorities, in the event of the death of Kim Jong-Un worries many.
    As for real transfers, a major player transferred BTC tokens worth $367 million last Friday, paying a ridiculous commission for the transaction, just 63 cents, which would be impossible in any other payment system on the planet.

    - Cryptocurrency analyst Mati Greenspan has calculated that after the BTC halving (halving of the rewards to miners) the annual bitcoin inflation will be 1.8% - only half of the global level, which is expected to be 3.56% this year. “In just a few days, the annual Bitcoin inflation will drop from 3.65% to 1.8%. And now it is no longer necessary to accept bitcoin to maintain its price. Satoshi either knew exactly what he was doing, or he was very lucky, 'Greenspan wrote. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account that the low inflation rate of the main cryptocurrency does not mean a massive influx of those wishing to purchase it.

    - Advisor to Warren Buffett Preston Pysh is very optimistic about Bitcoin (BTC) after the halving. He believes the price of BTC could reach $300,000. “I believe the next level is between $80,000 and $100,000. Bitcoin will go through this price range and will probably reach the mark of $200,000 or $300,000,” said the expert. His position is based on fundamental principles, which once again include the halving and the subsequent shortage of the coin supply in the market. At the same time, Pysh’s position radically diverges from the position of the famous investor and billionaire Warren Buffet, who is an ardent opponent of cryptocurrencies and especially Bitcoin.
    Venture capitalist Tim Draper agrees with Pysh as well, he has repeatedly said that BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023. Once again, he confirmed this forecast at Virtual Blockchain Week, saying that one of the catalysts for the growth of the first cryptocurrency will be its use in trading transactions. Representatives of this sector of the economy cannot but appreciate the advantages of bitcoin and the cheapness of transactions.

    - Binance cryptocurrency exchange entered the top 10 largest miners of bitcoin. As for small miners, many industry experts are confident that they will either quit the game or be absorbed by bigger players. After the halving, which will take place on May 12, due to a decrease in the reward for the mined block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, only the most efficient miners with new equipment and access to cheap electricity will remain in the industry. Such an enlargement can disrupt the ecosystem of cryptocurrencies, which runs counter to promises to increase the decentralization of mining.


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  19. Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 04 - 08, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Macro indicators paint a completely non-rosy picture of the state of the global economy. However, things in Europe look much worse than in the United States. The European economy has sagged at a record 3.8% in history over the previous quarter and 14.4% over the previous year, while in the United States these figures are just 1.2% and 4.8%, respectively.
    Last week, both the ECB and the Fed held meetings. Following the statements made on their results, it can be concluded that both regulators are concerned about the prospects of the crisis deepening, but the Fed can and is taking faster and more effective steps to support its economy than its European counterpart.
    In terms of allocations, the ECB's balance sheet has risen by €645 bn since the beginning of March, while the Fed's balance sheet has risen by $2.3 tn. The European Central Bank has lowered the rate for the target long-term lending program LTRO from -0.5% to -1% and announced the launch of the non-target financing program PELTRO at -0.25% but left the key interest rate unchanged at 0%. In addition, investors had expected the ECB to decide on the purchase of bonds of “fallen angels” - securities whose investment rating threatens to fall to “junk” due to the pandemic. But it didn't happen either.
    However, the US Federal Reserve also left the interest rate unchanged, which allowed the dollar to stay within the four-week lateral corridor 1.0750-1.1000. After reaching the height of 1.1018, the pair underwent a slight correction and completed the five-day period at 1.0980;

    - GBP/USD. In general, the week dynamics of this pair's quotes echoed that of the EUR/USD, however, its correction after the sharp takeoff on Thursday April 30 was significantly stronger.
    The pound's weekend sell-off was primarily due to a deteriorating fundamental backdrop in the UK economy. Due to the shutdown of a large number of enterprises, the manufacturing sector PMI fell to a record low of 32.6, which was significantly lower than the critical value of 50.0.
    As a result, having started on Monday from the level of 1.2365, the pound finished on Friday in the area of a strong support/resistance zone of 1.2500, losing 135 points to the dollar over the week;

    - USD/JPY. With ultra-high volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the inverse correlation of this pair with the S&P500 and Nikkei225 is particularly noticeable in recent weeks.
    As expected by the majority of experts (55%), supported by the vast majority of indicators on H4 and D1 (75-100%), the past week began with another bear attack on the support of 107.00, which is a significant level for the yen for many months and even years. It would seem the breakdown took place and the pair even reached the 106.35 horizon. But the bears failed to consolidate their success. U.S. exchanges closed the last trading day of April with a vast decline. Futures for the S&P500 lost about 3.0%, while Japan's Nikkei225 rolled back from an 8-week high. Following the inverse correlation rule, the USD/JPY pair turned north and returned to where it started on Monday - to the zone 107.40-107.50. The bears made another attempt to break the level of 107.00 on Friday May 1, resulting in the pair finishing the trading session slightly below it — at 106.85;

    – cryptocurrencies. Halving in the Bitcoin network is getting closer and closer. This event overshadows even what happens in connection with the coronavirus pandemic for crypto-analysts and crypto-traders. The wait is not long, everything should happen on May 12. And, as most experts predicted (65%), the main currency went up in the run-up to the halving, pulling along the entire cryptocurrency market. If the BTC/USD pair was at the level of $7,400 on April 24, it was already close to the height of $9,400 on April 30, showing a gain of 27% over 5 days. The number of bitcoin holders with 0.1 coins in their account reached a record level, exceeding 3 million.
    However, apart from the bulls-optimists, of course, there are also bears on the market, pessimists, who believe that the halving is already embedded in the Bitcoin current market price, and therefore there are no reasons for its explosive growth at all. This point of view prevailed by the end of last week, when many traders and miners began to take profits, lowering BTC quotes on April 30 to $8,400.
    Then bitcoin rose again and by the evening of Friday May 1 it moved to the $8,700-9,000 zone. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization at the end of the week was $ 247 billion (15% per week), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index doubled from 20 to 40, finally leaving the red zone of fear and reaching neutral values.
    As for such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD and Litecoin (LTC/USD), they obediently repeated the dynamics of the reference cryptocurrency without ever making any independent movements.

    continued below...
     
  20. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Despite the economic crisis, falling GDP and rising unemployment, April as a whole was very successful for the main stock indices - investors massively bought back assets that sharply fell in price during the March collapse. As for EUR/USD, the European currency, albeit with difficulty, managed to prevent the onset of the dollar. And although the bears constantly pressed the euro to the lower boundary of the side channel 1.0750-1.1000, the pair ended the month where it was on April 01 — near its upper limit of 1.1000. Now, in order for the European currency to be able to withstand pressure, the ECB needs to seriously intensify its actions. However, EU leaders still cannot agree on the form of grants or loans to implement the upcoming aid program. Such slowness reinforces market expectations regarding a possible drop in European GDP this year by 12%.
    Now about the week ahead. At the time of writing this forecast, the vast majority of indicators are colored green. However, about 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 already give signals about the pair being overbought, which indicates that it may rebound to the center of the channel 1.0750-1.1000, which is agreed by 65% of analysts. The targets are 1.0900 and 1.0750. If the uptrend continues, the pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.1100 and reach a height of 1.1240.
    Among the significant events of the upcoming week that may affect the formation of local trends, you should pay attention to the publication of data on business activity and the labor market in the United States on May 05, 06, and especially on Friday, May 08. The unemployment rate in April is forecast to be 10% lower than in March (14% vs. 4%), and the NFP (the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector) fall from -701 to -20,000. All this will play against the dollar, although, as often happens, the market can take these negative forecasts into account in advance;

    - GBP/USD. There are no specific signals from the indicators regarding the future of this pair, although the greens have a slight advantage over the reds. The greens are supported by graphical analysis on D1, according to which the pair will rise to the height of 1.2865 in the next 1-2 weeks, and then another 100 points higher. The nearest targets are 1.2650 and 1.2725. Supports are at 1.2245, 1.2165 and 1.1965 levels.
    The experts' forecast for this pair is also neutral: a third of them vote for its growth, a third – for a fall, and a third – for a sideways trend. But when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, most of them (60%) expect the British currency to weaken and the pair to fall.
    In addition to the deteriorating state of the UK economy, the pressure on the pound is being put on by uncertainty over Brexit, analysts said. Negotiations on leaving the EU have again reached an impasse, and the main Euro negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that Great Britain was refusing any compromises on very many fundamental issues. Moreover, the British have refused any postponements related to the completion of the process of parting with the European Union, as a result of which the possibility of a tough Brexit has once again loomed on the horizon.
    The coming week should pay attention to Thursday 07 May, when the meeting of the Bank of England will take place. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.1%. Therefore, the Bank's monetary policy report is of particular interest to investors. And here something unexpected is possible. Given that the recession of the British economy in the II quarter is likely to exceed 8%, the regulator can go on expanding the program of quantitative easing, the volume of which currently stands at ? 645 billion;

    - USD/JPY. At the moment, analysts' forecast for this pair is similar to the forecast for GBP/USD — when moving from neutral weekly to monthly, the number of supporters of falling yen and rising dollar rises to 70%. As for the indicators, on D1 they strongly disagree with the experts: 75% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators indicate the continuation of the downtrend that began on March 25 and the pair's consolidation below the key level of 107.00. Support levels are 106.35 and 105.00, and resistance levels are 108.00, 108.50 and 109.40;
    [​IMG]

    – cryptocurrencies. First, traditionally medium and long-term forecasts of gurus and cryptosphere enthusiasts. So, the head of the CoinCorner exchange, Danny Scott, said that the financial crisis against the background of the coronavirus pandemic is forcing more and more investors to turn to bitcoin. "If the situation with the fiat, stock markets and oil does not stabilize, you can expect the coin for $20,000 or even more after the halving. Fiat money that even ordinary citizens receive as part of support can be converted to cryptocurrency. People are beginning to fear that the dollar will lose stability and cease to be an asset with minimal volatility".
    Warren Buffett's adviser Preston Pish is also optimistic about bitcoin, who believes that the price of BTC can reach $200-300 thousand. His position is based on fundamental principles, which once again include the halving and the subsequent shortage of the coin supply in the market. At the same time, Pish’s position radically diverges from the position of the famous investor and billionaire Warren Buffet, who is an ardent opponent of cryptocurrencies and especially Bitcoin.
    Venture capitalist Tim Draper agrees with Pish as well, he has repeatedly said that the BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023. He has once again confirmed this forecast at Virtual Blockchain Week, saying that one of the catalysts for the growth of the first cryptocurrency will be its use in trading transactions. In his opinion, representatives of this sector of the economy can not but appreciate the advantages of bitcoin and the cheapness of transactions. It is hard to argue with the latter, especially after it became known that the commission for the transfer of BTC on April 22 worth $367 million amounted to only 63 cents.
    In general, while maintaining optimism, some experts fear that after the halving, due to a decrease in the reward for a mined block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, only the most efficient miners with new equipment and access to cheap electricity can remain in the industry. Such consolidation may disrupt the cryptocurrency ecosystem, which will run counter to promises to increase the decentralization of mining. However, a possible increase in the cost of bitcoin and a drop in energy prices caused by the current crisis gives hope that small crypto farms can stay afloat, while maintaining profitability.
    And now about forecasts for the coming week, which may surprise, as more than half of analysts (55%) predict not growth, but the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the zone of 7,700-8,000. Another 20% predict its movement along the $9,000 horizon, and only 25% expect that bitcoin quotes will break through the resistance at the $10,000 level.


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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