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  1. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX Registered

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 22 - 26, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The Financial Times reported in a recent article that analysts began to have problems as Forex stopped responding to fundamental factors as before. Against the backdrop of uncertainty in global financial markets, investor risk moods dominate, which are determined by the actions of regulators on quantitative easing (QE) and support for stock markets, on the one hand, and fear of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, on the other. And this fear is becoming stronger due to a new outbreak of coronavirus in China and an increase in the number of infected in several US states.
    This confusion of investors is clearly visible on the EUR/USD chart. There is a side trend at the start of the week, then a 150-point rise, followed by a “ladder” down with four neat steps. Finally, the finish at 1.1180 is 80 points below the start level at the beginning of the five-day period. (Recall that two weeks ago, the final amplitude of fluctuations of the pair was only 30 points in favor of the dollar);

    - GBP/USD. A certain optimism regarding the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday June 18 quickly faded. Some investors had expected an increase of ?200 billion in an open market bond purchase program and even a possible reduction in interest rates. However, neither happened. The regulator kept the rate at 0.1% and increased asset purchases under quantitative easing (QE) from the current ?645bn to ?745bn. The pace of purchases is over ?13bn a week now, so a ?100bn increase in volumes corresponds to just 8 weeks of QE.
    Despite some optimistic statements about the state of the British economy, the Bank of England, in fact, left the problem of its support open, saying that it would take certain steps as necessary. This position could not appeal to the market and caused another wave of sell-off in the pound, which resulted in the pair falling to 1.2350 by the end of the week;

    - USD/JPY. Active interest in the yen as a quiet financial harbor, which we observed from June 08 to 12, has subsided. As a result, the pair returned to the zone of a fairly long medium-term channel, which began in April, and moved along a narrow corridor of 106.55-107.65 all week, within which, at the level of 106.85, it ended the trading session;

    – cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin continues to be a weapon in the confrontation between Trump and his opponents within the United States. Thus, back in 2018, Donald Trump instructed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to end the bitcoin trade. A year later, Mnuchin continued his attack on crypto assets, calling them a money laundering tool. And now, Forbes editor-in-chief Steve Forbes also called bitcoin a tool, however, changing the sign from minus to plus. According to him, cryptocurrencies are a technologically advanced “cry for help” and a tool against unstable economic policies pursued by governments, resorting to the distribution of free loans and quantitative easing.
    As for crypto assets that are most interesting for investing in this unstable time, some experts increasingly call stablecoins - a type of cryptocurrency whose value is tied to precious metals or fiat money, most often in a 1:1 ratio - one stablecoin is equal, for example, to one dollar. The most popular in this digital segment is Tether (USDT) - a coin that is currently in 4th place in terms of market capitalization. According to Messari, the total issue of stable digital coins has currently exceeded $11 billion, showing a 100% increase since February.
    However, stablecoins are still very far away from bitcoin. According to the analytics portal Blockchaincenter, on average around 80.8% of all cryptocurrency-related requests to Google account for BTC worldwide. Then follows Ethereum with an indicator of 13.7%, and the third in top three is Ripple - 7.7%. Kenya (94.7%) and Brazil (92.6%) have taken the leading positions in terms of interest of the population in bitcoin. Poland closes the top ten with an indicator of 86.4%. South America has become the most interested continent in the leading cryptocurrency.
    True, bitcoin does not please its fans at all for the whole of June. The downtrend of the BTC/USD pair is obvious, and if in the first decade of the month the $9,500 level acted as support, then in the next ten days it became a resistance level.
    The total capitalization of the crypto market is virtually unchanged and on June 19 it stands at $266 billion versus $268 billion seven days ago. The arrow of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also froze and is still in the Fear zone - 39 against 38 a week earlier.

    continued below...
     
  2. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. It has been repeatedly said that in the current situation, many investors see the dollar as a protective currency. An ongoing pandemic in the United States is fueling fears of a new wave of coronavirus. The S&P500 index is turning down from March highs around 3150, suggesting investor doubts about a further imminent stock market recovery.
    In this situation, 65% of experts supported by graphical analysis and 85% of indicators on H4 expect further strengthening of the dollar and lowering of the pair first to the level of 1.1100, and then 100 points lower.
    Only 35% of analysts and 15% of oscillators on H4, giving signals of the pair being oversold, vote for the growth of the pair. The bulls' closest targets are 1.1350 and the high of 09 June 1.1425.
    Regarding the publication of macroeconomic data, statistics on business activity of the EU and Germany will be released on Tuesday 23 June, and the data on the US labour market and GDP for the I quarter - on Thursday 25 June. Also, there will be a report on the ECB monetary policy meeting on this day;

    - GBP/USD. In addition to EU statistics, the UK Service Business Activity Index (PMI) will be published on Tuesday 23 June. According to forecasts, this indicator can grow by more than a third - from 29.0 to 39.5. In principle, the Bank of England still has enough time, depending on the development of the situation with the economy, to reduce or, conversely, increase the volume of bond purchases under QE, and even add other assets to them. The introduction of negative interest rates remains another powerful reserve. But the regulator is likely to take this step only as a last resort, if the country's economy is on the verge of collapse.
    Perhaps these measures will return the active interest of the markets in the British currency. In the meantime, most analysts (60%), supported by 85% of the oscillators and almost 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1, are waiting for the continuation of the downtrend of the GBP/USD pair to the May low at around 1.2070. The nearest support is 1.2265 and 1.2160.
    Graphical analysis on D1 sides with the bears as well. But on H4, it sides with the bulls, as well as 40% of experts and 15% of oscillators that are in the oversold zone. Resistance levels are 1.2455, 1.2565 1.2650 and 1.2800;

    - USD/JPY. Market fears related to the new onset of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy could not but affect the forecasts regarding the future of this pair. Thus, 60% of analysts believe that the potential of the yen as a haven currency has not yet been exhausted, and they prefer the Japanese currency in the fight against the dollar. However, a powerful downward movement, in their opinion, should not be expected, and the ultimate goal will be the horizon of 106.00. The next level of support is located 100 points below, however, it is now unlikely to be achieved.
    40% of experts vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, expecting its rise to the 108.00 zone. The nearest resistance is 107.65.
    As for technical analysis, 90% of the trend indicators on ?4 and 100% on D1 are colored red. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Here, 90% of them point south on H4 and 70% on D1, while the rest signal that the pair is oversold;

    – cryptocurrencies. There is still a debate about whether bitcoin is a risky or protective asset. In fact, if you compare the BTC/USD charts with the situation on the markets, you can see it in both roles. At the same time, it can be assumed that in the event of a serious, comprehensive collapse, investors are more likely to get rid of cryptocurrencies rather than traditional assets.
    In the meantime, one can observe the growth of interest of large investors in the reference cryptocurrency. According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of “whales” with wallets of 1000 or more coins is now approaching the level fixed at the end of 2017, when the BTC price was coming close to $20,000. Institutional activity is also confirmed by data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where applications for bitcoin options increased tenfold between May 10 and June 10. All this suggests that after a relative lull in recent weeks, we can expect sharp jumps in volatility, and the “whales” can provoke both strong growth and a collapse of quotations at any moment.
    An interesting point of view was expressed by well-known trader and analyst Tone Vays, who believes that current bearish sentiment can positively affect the growth of the first cryptocurrency in 2021. The absence of To the Moon, in his opinion, should make people so angry that they started selling bitcoin. To the Moon means the continuous growth of the cryptocurrency rate in a geometrical progression. It is the lack of such growth that will trigger its rapid rise in the future. According to the analyst, "for bitcoin to rise, people must hate it."
    "Until the price breaks through $10,000, I will expect the price to fall," Vays concluded his ForkLog interview. – If we fall by the end of the summer, I think it will be somewhere around $7,000. But the first cryptocurrency will not fall below $6,000."
    Regarding the current situation, 55% of experts believe that the pair will still be able to gain strength and once again assault the $10,000 sign level, the remaining 45%, on the contrary, are waiting for the BTC to drop to $8,500-8,800. The next support level may be a 200-day moving average in the $8.350 zone.
    In addition to bitcoin, Ethereum has recently attracted serious attention of experts: according to CoinMetrics estimates, the growth of transactions related to it has reached a 27-month high. This happened primarily due to decentralized financial applications (DeFi) and Tether Stabelcoin (USDT), the number of transactions with which on Ethereum blockchain has increased by 450% since early 2020.
    [​IMG]


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  3. Stan NordFX

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    - Deutsche Bank spoke about the possible future of bitcoin. According to the experts of this regulator, the situation with cryptocurrencies may change significantly in the next 10 years, while there are two scenarios. The first is, digital assets will become even more popular against the backdrop of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the financial industry and many other external factors. And the second one is apocalyptic, in which the electronics on the planet at some point will seriously suffer from solar flares, which makes the use of bitcoin simply impossible, because, unlike fiat money, it cannot be used without additional devices and energy consumption.

    - 20 thousand outlets in the USA began to accept bitcoin when paying for goods through LibertyX terminals. Until July 31, the company will not charge a transaction fee, later its amount will be slightly less than $5 for each BTC coin. Also, it will be possible to pay for purchases directly from a cryptocurrency wallet in many chain stores. The head of LibertyX, Chris Im, said that the ability to make payments with digital assets will also appear in smaller retail outlets in the future. In addition, you can now buy cryptocurrencies worth up to $500 at LibertyX ATMs. This digital asset rollout program has been called “Bitcoin for Every Quarter”.

    - The role of millennials in the future of the cryptocurrency industry is noted by many experts. At the end of last year, the American brokerage company Charles Schwab said that this age group invests in bitcoin more often than in Netflix and Microsoft. Over the past three years, the younger generation has come to trust bitcoin more than global banks like Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. This is evidenced by a study conducted by Tokenist in 17 countries involving 4,852 respondents between the ages of 18 and 65. According to the results, 51% of the millennials preferred the leading cryptocurrency. Among older generations, this figure was lower, due to which the overall level of confidence in bitcoin was 47%, which is 29% more than in 2017. 24% of millennials consider bitcoin a soap bubble, among the age group of 65 this indicator reached 50%. At the same time, more than 45% of respondents prefer BTC to traditional assets: securities, real estate and gold. 78% of millennials are familiar with bitcoin, 14% have owned it.

    - According to the Cointelegraph agency, a resident of Spain received the rights to the logo and name of bitcoin in the Patent and Trademark Office of this country. It was a local businessman engaged in cryptocurrency exchange. He refused to disclose his identity to reporters but spoke about the reasons for this step. "I am not a fake Satoshi; I just registered the rights to own and use the logo and the word. And if someone uses them incorrectly, I will stand up for them," the entrepreneur said, adding that he does not intend to prevent others from working with bitcoin, provided that they are honest people, and not scammers.
    Recall that the Bitcoin trademark was registered in Russia in April 2016. In 2018, the British company A.B.C.IPHoldings South West LLC. acquired the rights to the same brand - In May 2019, the copyright for this coin was registered by a Chinese woman, Wei Liu, and Craig Wright, who calls himself the Creator of the main cryptocurrency, since August 2017, has filed more than 150 patent applications with various authorities mentioning cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

    - The head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, Mike Novogratz, predicted the timing of a new bitcoin rally in an interview with CoinDesk. The billionaire is convinced that the arrival of major players is necessary for a new round in the development of the industry and admitted that he was in a hurry trying to attract institutions to the digital asset market three years ago. However, now, in his opinion, an excellent moment has come for a new attempt: “It took more time than expected, but intuition tells me that in the next 6 to 24 months we will have great [institutional] progress.” The businessman called the measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to support the economy as another factor influencing the price of bitcoin: “Within the week after the crisis began, the Fed printed more dollars than for the entire period 2008-2009. My mother used to tell me that money doesn't grow on trees, but that's what's happening right now.

    - The PayPal payment system plans to implement the possibility of buying and selling cryptocurrencies for 325 million of its users. At the moment, this payment system can only be used as a way to withdraw money from crypto exchanges. An informed source said that the launch of the service could take place within the next three months: “As far as I understand, they intend to allow buying and selling cryptocurrency directly in PayPal and Venmo. There will be some functionality of the built-in wallet so that it can be stored.” Coinbase and Bitstamp are mentioned as likely partners of PayPal, and it is not yet known which cryptocurrencies can be added to the service.

    - A small independent film company Substantial Films is making a film "Decrypted" about the cryptocurrency and the mysterious bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. According to the description, it will be "a scandalous and provocative black comedy about a team of the US National Security Agency that kidnaps Satoshi Nakamoto and tries to get information from him necessary to destroy cryptocurrencies." The film is scheduled for release later this year.

    - Experts of the US analytical company Weiss Ratings have come to the conclusion that the main cryptocurrency will rise to $180,000. The company believes that the entry of billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones into the BTC futures market shows that institutions are paying increasing attention to cryptocurrency markets. This is because bitcoin has become "one of the safe haven assets with the greatest profit potential," especially since central banks print fiat money non-stop. According to Weiss Ratings experts, bitcoin is much better than gold in terms of security, mobility and utility, and “if bitcoin takes at least a third of gold's share, it will trade about $180,000, that is about 20 times the current levels.”


    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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  4. Stan NordFX

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  5. Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 29 - July 03, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. COVID-19 continues its second attack on the United States. A new spike in incidence is observed in at least seven states. And in the three most populous states, the number of infected people continues to grow at a record pace, with a spike in deaths due in about two weeks. Authorities in Houston (Texas) announced that intensive care units in hospitals are nearly overcrowded. It is clear that this new outbreak is related to the lifting of the quarantine at the end of May. And no matter how much the White House and the governors would not like to return to strict quarantine again, it is possible that they still have to do this.
    Against this background, risk sentiment began to weaken, the stock market and government bond yields went down, and the dollar, now entrenched in the status of the main protective currency, on the contrary, went up. Investors believe in the dollar largely thanks to the policy of President Trump, who, for the sake of supporting his own economy, is again starting to increase pressure on other countries, threatening them with another portion of trade tariffs. Not only China, but also the EU, Great Britain and Canada have already come under attack.
    And if at the beginning of the week the dollar slightly lost to the European currency, it managed to win back a significant part of the losses since Tuesday June 23. As a result of this counterattack, theEUR / USD pair returned to the strong support / resistance zone 1.1240, around which it fluctuated as early as March 2019, and completed the five-day period at 1.1225;

    - GBP/USD. If the distance, which passed in the second half of the week EUR/USD pair was about 160 points, the flight down of the British pound was more rapid: 230 points. Even the 60% growth in the Markit index of business activity in the service sector did not help the pound, which is not surprising given the serious concern of the markets with Brexit problems. However, summing up the week, it is necessary to take into account the growth of the pair from June 22 to 24, one of the reasons of which was the tapering by the Fed of swap lines central banks, opened to maintain liquidity back in March. Given this growth, the final result of the week is close to zero: starting from 1.2350, the pair finished at 1.2335, with a minimum margin of 15 points in favor of the dollar;

    - USD/JPY. Most analysts (60%), with almost full support for the indicators, expected this pair to decline to the horizon of 106.00, and this forecast turned out to be 100% correct: the pair reached the local bottom at 106.05 on Tuesday June 23. After that, it turned around and rose to the height of 107.45, which was followed by a correction and a final chord at 107.20, also with a slight advantage of 35 points in favor of the dollar;

    – cryptocurrencies. Experts from the cybersecurity company ClearSky calculated that a group of hackers called CryptoCore (also known as Leery Turtle) have stolen more than $200 million over the past couple of years, attacking crypto exchanges and cracking crypto wallets. It should be noted that security is actually a weak point of many cryptocurrency exchanges, which cannot be said about the NordFX brokerage company. Over more than 10 years of its work, its experts have gained vast experience in repelling hacker attacks, which, coupled with the most modern technological support, allows us to talk about the maximum protection of customer funds. There hasn't been a single hack at NordFX since 2008, and this applies to customer accounts in both USD and BTC and ETH.
    In addition to crime news, the Deutsche Bank brought us troubling news. Its experts, predicting the future of cryptocurrencies, voiced, among others, one completely apocalyptic scenario. According to them, electronics on the planet will at some point be seriously affected by outbreaks in the Sun, causing bitcoin to simply disappear as, unlike fiat money, it cannot to be used without additional appliances and energy consumption.
    Meanwhile, oblivious to solar activity, the main cryptocurrency continues to move in the range of $9,000-10,000 for the sixth week in a row. Another attempt to break through the sign $ 10,000 resistance ended in failure on Monday June 22, after which the initiative passed into the hands of the bears, who dropped quotes to the lower border of the channel.
    According to some analysts, the reason for this fall is the early expiration of $1 billion in bitcoin options. Fears of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which are putting more and more pressure on the market, cannot be ruled out either. In the eyes of many investors, bitcoin was, is, and will still for a long time remain the riskiest asset they will get rid of in the first place. While investors wait for clearer signals from traditional markets, the crypto market has metered, reminding a cocked trigger. But it is not clear which way the bullet will go.
    Despite taking off to $276 billion on June 24, the crypto market's total capitalization was virtually unchanged in seven days: $263 billion on June 26 versus $266 billion a week ago. The same applies to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index which is at 40 (39 seven days earlier).
    As for the main altcoins, in general, fluctuations in their quotes duplicate the movements of the main cryptocurrency. However, if the volatility of the BTC/USD pair in June was about 13%, litecoin and ripple show a greater tendency to fall: LTC/USD - 18%, XRP/USD - 17%. Ethereum (ETH/USD), on the contrary, was more stable, and the width of its side channel did not exceed 13% of the June 02 high.

    continued below...
     
  6. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The closer the November U.S. election, the higher the activity of President Trump and his entourage. The White House is considering imposing duties on goods from the EU and the UK worth more than $3bn, and 20 major Chinese companies have been blacklisted by the Pentagon on suspicion of links to the PRC military. On the other hand, in Europe, everything is going downhill. ECB officials predict a further slowdown in economic growth and weak consumer demand. According to ECB board member Yves Mersch, “the prospects for Eurozone economic recovery are shrouded in uncertainty” and, as a result, long-term scenarios may prove too optimistic. All this, coupled with a decrease in risk appetites due to the second wave of COVID-19, should lead to further growth in the dollar. Such sentiments are particularly visible in monthly and medium-term forecasts.
    Thus, as for the behavior of the pair in the coming week, the opinions of analysts were divided almost equally: 30% voted for the growth of the pair, 40% - for its fall and 30% - for the side trend. At the same time, the main levels of support and resistance are the boundaries of the channel that it has moved the last two weeks - 1.1170 and 1.1350.
    When moving to the forecast for July, the number of supporters of the dollar increases to 65%. In their opinion, the pair will first drop to 1.1100, then to 1.1000, and will grope the local bottom another 100 points lower. And here we must take into account that very often such forecasts are implemented within the first two weeks of the month.
    The goals of the bulls are 1.1350, followed by the 09 June high at 1.1425 and finally the height of 1.1500.
    Among the events that should be paid attention in the coming week are data on the consumer market in Germany and the EU, which will be published on Monday, June 29 and Tuesday, June 30, respectively. The statements of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled for June 30, are also of undoubted interest to the markets. As for the second half of the week, we are expecting a whole series of data on business activity and labour market in Germany and the US, including such an important indicator as NFP - the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. Next week, with regard to the British pound, important news risks await us: negotiations with the EU on the transition period in the framework of Brexit will resume. In their expectation, the experts' votes are distributed almost the same as in the case of EUR/USD: 35% vote for the pair's growth, 35% – for its fall, and 30% – for a sideways trend.
    Technical analysis gives a slightly different picture. Almost 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are painted red. Red also dominates among the oscillators, however 15% of them give signals about the pair being oversold, which may indicate a trend reversal up. The pair's northward reversal and return to the June 10 high at 1.2810 is also indicated by graphical analysis. Support levels are 1.2245, 1.2160 and 1.2070, resistance - 1.2470, 1.2545 and 1.2650;

    - USD/JPY. If 75% on the H4 trend indicators point to the north, as much look to the south on D1. Green also dominates among the oscillators on H4, but on D1 there is a complete mess of green, red and neutral gray colors.
    Most of the analysts are bearish: 65% of them believe that with a full-scale decline in interest in risky assets, investors will again want to withdraw their capital to such a safe haven like the yen. As a result, the pair will test the 106.00 level again. The nearest support is in the 106.75 zone.
    35% of experts vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, expecting its rise to the 108.00 zone. The nearest resistance is located in zone 107.45-107.60;

    – cryptocurrencies. Downward trends in the crypto market are once again correlated with the dynamics of stock exchanges. And according to a number of experts, the sell-off of risk assets caused by the expectation of the second wave of coronavirus will negatively affect cryptocurrencies as well. Although, as usual, there are optimists. For example, Dan Tapeiro, co-founder of Gold Bullion International, believes that some of the anti-crisis $4.6 trillion that the US Federal Reserve has distributed over the past 3 months in the form of assistance can be used to buy bitcoin.
    Since the BTC halving on May 11, despite all expectations, it has not been able to overcome the $10,000 bar. This suggests that the famous trader and analyst Tone vays was right when he said that "for bitcoin to rise, people must start to hate it." It is possible that this is what big speculators are trying to achieve – having pinched the pair in the range of $9,000-10,000, they are waiting for small investors, who have not seen the take-off, to start mass sales of bitcoin, which will allow the "whales" to buy coins with a significant discount and fully take over the market. And then...
    ..Then they will send the main crypto asset to new, space heights. For example, experts at Weiss Ratings, an analytical company from the USA, believe that the main cryptocurrency will rise in price to $ 180,000. In terms of security, mobility and utility, Bitcoin is much better than gold, and if it takes at least a third of gold's share, it will trade at about 20 times higher than current levels, they believe.
    Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, is also waiting for a new bitcoin rally. In an interview with CoinDesk, the billionaire admitted that he was in a hurry trying to attract institutionalists to the digital asset market three years ago. However, now, in his opinion, an excellent moment has come for a new attempt: "It took longer than expected, but intuition tells me that in the period from 6 to 24 months we will have great [institutional] progress".
    The influence of institutional investors in this case is beyond doubt. According to Chainalysis estimates, only 3.5 million BTC coins are used for trading now. (The rest of the 18.6 million are either frozen as long-term investments or lost altogether). And here 85% of these 3.5 million belong to “whales”, which shape market trends on their own.
    Now about the forecast for the coming week. From the technical analysis side, important support in the form of a 50-day moving average passes through the $9,000 level. And if the pair breaks this level, we can expect it in the zone of $ 8,500-8,800. This development is expected by 30% of analysts. Another 25% believe the 6-week side trend will last further, keeping the pair in the $9,000-10,000 range. And the remaining 45% of experts do not lose hope of seeing bitcoin above the psychological level of $10,000.


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  7. Stan NordFX

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    - In Australia, it will be soon possible to buy bitcoins by mail. It is about launching the Post Billpay service, the terminals of which will be located at approximately 3,500 points, including post offices. It will be possible to buy cryptocurrency for cash or by paying with a credit card. The commission should be low. According to the creators of the service, “this option will be an important step in the process of implementing digital solutions in the financial industry of Australia. And all processes will be carried out strictly within the framework of the current legislation of the country.”

    - Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that the price of BTC could soon rise to $13,000. According to the expert, the main coin is now in a very favourable position as other financial instruments are subject to strong volatility. “Bitcoin is locked in a bull setup, which should provide a breakthrough to 13 thousand. The market is now actively demonstrating contempt for positive sentiment, but it is precisely such a difference of opinion that can ensure an increase in the value of cryptocurrency. The decrease in bitcoin volatility has not yet been so clearly seen, but the coin has stopped jumping in thousands of dollars,” McGlone explained his position. A month ago, this specialist predicted the growth of the main cryptocurrency this year to the level of 20 thousand dollars. According to him, several serious corrections should be expected along her path.
    Recall that in February 2018, based on a stock market analysis of the dot-com boom, McGlone predicted a drop in bitcoin from $8,600 to $900. And the coin did collapse, however, its fall stopped at around $3,200.

    - University of California paid 116.4 BTC ($1.14 million) to bitcoin ransomware, reported the website of the educational institution. The software installed by the hackers encrypted the data on the servers of the University Medical School, making the information inaccessible. “Encrypted data is important for the academic work that we, as a university, conduct for the benefit of the society. Therefore, we made a difficult decision: to pay some part of the ransom, approximately $1.14 million, to the people who are behind the malware attack in exchange for unlocking the encrypted information, ” said representatives of the University of California, but they emphasized that the patients’ medical data were not made public.

    - The automated Bitcoin Block Bot tracking service recorded two transactions between anonymous addresses on the Bitcoin network for a total of 101.857 BTC (about $ 933 million). According to BitInfoCharts (cryptocurrency statistics service), 101.857 BTC arrived at the sender's address on April 2. Since then, he has not committed any major transactions until today. And now 5,000 BTC were transferred to one wallet, and the remaining 96,857 BTC arrived at another address in the form of the change on the April transaction. At the same time, the total commission for transfers amounted to just 48 cents.

    - According to estimates by the British investment company Buy Shares, bitcoin has outperformed the world's leading indices by an average of 70 times over the past five years. Over this period, investments in the main cryptocurrency could bring more than 3400% of the profit. At the same time, the NASDAQ index has rosen 96%. The S&P500 index the basket of which includes 505 selected companies traded on US exchanges, has shown even lower returns - 46%. The result for the industrial Dow Jones index is similar, 42%. The worst result from the above has been shown by the leading index of the British Stock Exchange FTSE100: its quotes have fallen by almost 7% from June 2015 to the present day.

    - The June issue of the Crypto Research Report presents a forecast according to which the price of bitcoin could approach $400,000 in the next ten years. Top altcoins, Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Stellar (XLM) will also significantly increase in price. “We believe that bitcoin is at the very beginning of its adoption curve,” the report says. - The price of $7,200 at the end of 2019 indicates that BTC is present on less than 0.44% of all markets with a volume of $212 trillion. If this penetration reaches 10%, its price should be almost $400 thousand. "This will mean a BTC price increase of more than 4000% by 2030. ETH, LTC and BCH look extremely optimistic in this scenario as well, showing gains of 1600%, 5000% and 5400%. XLM should show the highest growth, over 11,000% (from $0.07 to $7.81).

    - Well-known analyst Willy Wu called the COVID-19 pandemic a “white swan” for bitcoin, which disrupted preparations for a new rally of the first cryptocurrency. He came to this conclusion on the basis of a new model he was developing. According to this model, BTC had been preparing to move into a bullish cycle in the first quarter, but the economic consequences of the pandemic delayed the rally. To explain the chosen terminology, Wu referred to the philosopher and author of the cult book “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb.

    - India is of particular importance for the entire crypto industry, especially after the recent lifting of the ban on the circulation of virtual assets. The Indian PR agency Bit2Buzz has presented the results of a study of the cryptocurrency market in the country, noting that over 70% of the young population of India already trades or owns cryptocurrency. As for generation X (people born from 1960 to 1979), their knowledge and activity in this sector is close to zero.

    - Bill Miller, the famous investor and founder of Miller Value Partners, has confirmed that he still adheres to the bullish attitude towards bitcoin. For two months, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range of $9,000- $10,000, and this, according to Miller, speaks in favour of BTC. During a FutureProof podcast on June 25, he said: “With the current price of $9,000, I find it much safer than at any other mark where it was before.” Miller first met bitcoin at a rate of about $200 after the collapse of the Mt.Gox exchange. Then he decided to accumulate cryptocurrency and bought it up to the level of $500, having received huge profit by today. “I see how bitcoin follows the path of revolutionary innovations consecrated for centuries, which include the printing press, the railway, electricity, radio, biotechnology, the Internet. Bubbles are needed in order to attract capital to the market, which in turn will allow checking which of these innovations can prove their worth,” the investor says.


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  8. Stan NordFX

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    Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 06 - 10, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The latest US employment data is not just optimistic, but over-optimistic: approximately 4.8 million people returned to work in June. The unemployment rate fell from 13.3% to 11.1% - the best increase in employment outside the agricultural sector since records began in 1939.
    So what? Nothing! The market has almost stopped responding to macroeconomic indicators as it has new, outperforming indicators: the number of newly infected COVID-19 and the number of dead from this virus. And here the United States far surpassed both Europe and China. As a result, the American economy is in a vicious circle: the more employment, the more newly opened businesses, the more people went to work, began to visit restaurants, travel by bus and subway, the more ... newly infected with the coronavirus. The number of such only on Thursday July 2 was 57 thousand - an increase of almost twice as much as at its peak in April.
    Things are significantly better in China and Europe, and so they can relaunch their economies more actively. The United States, on the contrary, will be forced to slow down this process. Positive statistics for July may be the peak, followed by a new fall. But the US will need, according to the congressional Budget office, at least ten years in order to return to the level of unemployment that was before the pandemic (3.5%).
    In the absence of other drivers for decision-making, the market is at a crossroads, expecting how the situation with COVID-19 will develop further and what measures the US leadership can take to deal with the new wave of the pandemic. This inability of investors to take any direction was reflected in expert forecasts. Recall that last week their opinions were divided almost equally: 30% voted for the pair's growth, 40% for its fall and 30% for the side trend. At the same time, the boundaries of the channel on which it moved the whole second half of June — 1.1170 and 1.1350 were named as the main levels of support and resistance. In reality, volatility was even lower, the pair did not go beyond 1.1185-1.1300, and ended the week at 1.1245 - almost at the same Pivot Point 1.1240 along which it moved back in March 2019;

    - GBP/USD. Was it a temporary correction or a reversal of the June 20-day downtrend? Negotiations on the post-Brexit period are, according to a number of experts, going well and it looks like the EU is ready to make concessions on the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. This inspires investors with a certain optimism about the future of the British currency, which is reflected in its quotes: the pound is growing in relation to the euro and the dollar. The GBP/USD pair found a local bottom at 1.2250 on Monday, June 29, after which it steadily went up, reaching a high of 1.2530 on Thursday, July 2. The final chord sounded at around 1.2480, which allowed the pound to win back 145 points from the American currency in a week;

    - USD/JPY. Japan's State Pension Fund (GPIF), the world's largest management company in this sphere, announced record losses for the first quarter of 2020, which amounted to ?17.7 trillion ($165) billion). The structure of its losses allows us to draw some analytical conclusions. So, GPIF lost 22% (?10.2 trillion) on investments in shares of foreign companies, 18% (?7.4 trillion) on investments in the Japanese stock market and only 0.5% (?185 billion) on investments in Japanese government securities. Due of the pandemic, the American S&P500 index fell by 20%, the Japanese Topix slightly less — by 18%, the yield of ten-year US Treasuries over this period fell by 125 basis points, and here the yield of similar government securities in Japan increased by 3 bps. The yen also strengthened in the first quarter – by 1% against the dollar, and by 3% against the Euro. These figures are quite eloquent about which Japanese assets can be considered a real haven.
    As for the behavior of the pair USD/JPY in the past week, there were no special events: the yen and the dollar continue to struggle with varying success for the funds of investors who do not want to risk, as a result, the pair continues its movement along the Pivot Point in the 107.50 zone. That's where it ended the trading session;

    – cryptocurrencies. According to estimates by British investment firm Buy Shares, bitcoin has bypassed the world's leading indices by an average of 70 times over the past five years. During this period, investments in the main cryptocurrency could bring more than 3400% profit. At the same time, the NASDAQ index rose 96 percent. The S&P500 index, whose basket includes 505 selected companies traded on US exchanges, showed even lower returns – 46%. The Dow Jones industrial average has a similar result – 42%. The worst result from the above was shown by the leading index of the British Stock Exchange FTSE100 - from June 2015 to the present day, its quotes fell by almost 7%.
    However, past merits of bitcoin are not at all a guarantee of merits in the present and future. The main cryptocurrency continues to move in the narrow range of $9,000-10,000 for the seventh week in a row. Such sideways trends have repeatedly ended in a collapse. So, bitcoin dangerously pressed to the lower boundary of the channel all last week, not rising above the horizon $9,285. Moreover, the bears made several breakout attempts, during which the price of BTC fell to the $8,840 mark, which gave investors a lot of unpleasant feelings. Such dynamics cannot please the miners working after the May halving at a loss either.
    Despite the above figures of staggering bitcoin returns, analysts are increasingly talking about the correlation of this cryptocurrency with the stock market. Against the backdrop of alarming expectations of a new wave of a pandemic in the United States, stock indices moved to the red zone at the end of the week: investor risk appetites are disappearing. Accordingly, their interest in bitcoin is falling. Crypto market capitalization is virtually unchanged: $266 billion on June 19, $263 billion on June 26, $260 billion on July 03. (Note that the crypto market showed the same volumes exactly two years ago, in June-July 2018). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is also behaving sluggishly: its arrow is at 41 (39 on June 19 and 40 on June 26).
    Now about the altcoins. The total number of all kinds of crypto coins today is a gigantic figure, 5687. Bitcoin dominates the market, covering 64.4% of its volume. It is followed by Ethereum (ETH) with 9.70%. Demand for this coin is fueled by the promises of its creator, Vitalik Buterin, to increase network bandwidth to 100K transactions per second. The next most popular bypassing the Ripple turned out to be the Tether stablecoin (USDT), which shows positive dynamics in moments difficult for the cryptocurrency market. The capitalization of the USDT at the end of the past week was 3.55%, while the capitalization of the Ripple (XRP) was only 3.04%.

    continued below...
     
  9. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. No particularly important economic events are expected in the coming week. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, as well as some data on ISM business activity in the services sector in this country, and industrial production in Germany will become known. However, most likely, they will not be able to shake the market much. Due to the fact that all interest rates are about zero, the spreads of bond yields have almost nothing to react to either. And, as has already been said, the reaction of investors to the news about COVID-19 will most likely be affecting the behavior of the EUR/USD pair.
    There is another interesting factor that can affect the dollar, it is the results of the US presidential election, which will determine the further economic policy of the country. But it is still four months away, and a serious recovery should be expected only when autumn starts. Although Donald Trump is known for his ability to present the most unexpected surprises at any moment. However, this "parameter" is almost impossible to predict.
    It is not worth focusing on the indicator readings with this behavior of the EUR/USD pair in recent weeks, and it is almost impossible, since their main color on both H4 and D1 has become neutral gray. Graphical analysis refuses any constructions as well. But among analysts, the belief in the dollar still dominates. So, 45% of them voted for its growth and reduction of the EUR/USD pair, first to the lower border of the channel 1.1170, and in case of its breakdown - another 70-100 points below. 25% of experts expect to see the pair at a height of 1.1400, and the remaining 30% predict the continuation of its consolidation in the region of Pivot Point 1.1240;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. So, let's repeat the question asked in the first part of the review: "Was it a temporary correction or a reversal of the June downtrend?» Graphical analysis on H4 confidently answers: “A reversal” and draws a further rise of the pair to the high of June 10 at 1.2810. On D1, the forecast is somewhat different - first, a decline to support 1.2245, then a return to the level of 1.2480.
    The vast majority of trend indicators (90%) and oscillators (85%) on H4 are painted green. On D1 there is no such solidarity: here priority is given to gray neutral, and 15% of oscillators signal the pair is overbought.
    As for analysts, they will first of all wait for the results of the next round of negotiations on the terms of the UK's exit from the EU. In the meantime, 30% of them believe that the pair will move within the lateral corridor 1.2245-1.2680, in the central zone of which it completed the previous week. Another 20% expect it to rise to a height of 1.2810, and 50% of experts expect the pair to decline to support 1.2160, and then 100 points lower;

    - USD/JPY. Here, the expert votes were distributed as follows: for the pair’s growth - 40%, for its fall - 40%, for the sideways trend - 20%. On H4, the indicator readings are indistinct, and the only reference point can be their readings on D1. Among the trend indicators on this timeframe, 70% point to the north, and 85% among the oscillators. Support levels are 107.30, 106.60 and the lower border of the side channel is 106.00. Resistance levels are 108.10, 109.30 and 109.85;

    – cryptocurrencies. The gurus of this market, as usual, raise their heads to the stars, predicting bitcoin's cosmic takeoff. The June issue of Crypto Research Report presents a forecast that the price of BTC could approach $400,000 in the next ten years. Top altcoins, Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Stellar (XLM) will also significantly increase the price. “We believe bitcoin is at the very beginning of its acceptance curve,” the report said. “The $7,200 price at the end of 2019 indicates that BTC is present at less than 0.44% of all of $212 trillion markets. If this penetration reaches 10%, its cost should be almost $400,000.” This will mean an increase in the price of BTC by 2030 by more than 4000%. ETH, LTC and BCH in this scenario also look extremely optimistic, showing gains of 1600%, 5000% and 5400%. The largest growth should be shown by XLM, over 11,000% (from $0.07 to $7.81).
    An even higher cost of Bitcoin is predicted by the TV presenter and founder of Bitcoin Capital, Max Kaiser. Recall that he began to promote this cryptocurrency when it cost only $1, and now Kaiser suggested that the price for a coin could reach $500,000. However, this requires “just a little thing” - the US mining war with Iran and Venezuela for hashrate. According to the TV presenter's calculations, Iran controls 3% of the world's hashrate, and Venezuela could soon gain control of 3 -5% of the hashrate, forcing the US into the race for mining, and will lead to an increase in the price of the main cryptocurrency.
    However, the near future does not look as rosy as Max Kaiser would like. We have already said that in the eyes of large institutional investors, bitcoin was, is, and will remain for a long time a risky asset, following such stock indexes as the S&P500. And in the near future, according to analysts at JP Morgan, pension funds can liquidate their assets in shares worth $ 175 billion, which will work like a trigger, causing a wave of sales in the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
    None of the experts sees the BTC/USD pair above the $9,000 mark in the coming week. 40% of experts expect a continuation of its sideways trend in the range of $ 9,000-10,000. Most analysts (60%) believe that the pair will fall into the $ 8,000-9,000 level.
    In the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of bulls’ supporters rises to 55 -60%. So, for example, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone thinks the price of BTC could rise to $13,000, and even close to the critical $20,000 mark by the end of the year. After that, according to the expectations of many experts, there will be a massive closure of long positions and an impressive rollback of the pair down.


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  10. Stan NordFX

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    CryptoNews

    [​IMG]

    - One of the US venture capital pioneers, Tim Draper, has once again reaffirmed his commitment to bitcoin. According to the financier, now is the time to invest in the main cryptocurrency, as it looks relatively stable against other assets. Even the dollar cannot compete with bitcoin on a number of parameters. Investing in altcoins will also definitely bear fruit, but the risk in this case is slightly increased. The financier did not rule out that even large banks, starting first just to work with cryptocurrencies, will then make them their main tool. And then the exchange rate of the dollar and the rest of the fiat will sink significantly.
    “The effectiveness of each investment tool needs to be evaluated in times of crisis. If an asset sinks along with the entire market, the same can happen to it at any time. When a financial instrument shows relative stability, you need to use it for your own purposes. I'm sure bitcoin is the optimal asset to invest right now. The cryptocurrency market has a real support, so a serious drawdown is unlikely for it. In addition, digital assets are not associated with risky industries like the oil and the dollar. The cryptocurrency is almost unaffected by the geopolitical situation, which makes it stronger than any fiat asset,” Draper argued.

    - According to the analytical portal Skew, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P500 index has reached a historical high. The current rate is approximately 66.2 per cent. There has been an increase in correlation over the past few months, but now the value has reached its peak. If at the beginning of the year the correlation was traced only at serious collapses or spikes, now it takes place even at the lowest volatility. “Some people compare bitcoin with gold, but even if it is connected with the stock markets, it remains a risky asset,” experts say.

    - The Binance-supported blockchain hotel reservation service Travala has announced a partnership with Expedia, an American tour operator. Thanks to this, it will be possible to pay for rooms in 700,000 hotels from the company's catalogue using BTC and another 30 digital currencies. Expedia previously accepted payments in bitcoins but abandoned this method in 2018 as it did not fit with their traditional financial model. And now a second attempt follows, apparently related to the general crisis in the tourism industry.

    - The experts of The Tokenist information platform, having polled 4852 people aged 18 to 65 years from 17 countries, analysed how the attitude towards bitcoin has changed over the past three years. Since 2017, the number of people who prefer BTC to traditional assets has grown significantly. More than 45% of respondents would prefer to have this cryptocurrency instead of stocks, real estate and gold, which is 13% more than three years ago. Moreover, among millennials, their share is 92% against 68% earlier.
    The number of people familiar with Bitcoin increased from 30% to 61%, with the number of respondents owning or having owned it rising from 2% to 6%. Among millennials, the number of people familiar with bitcoin rose from 42% to 78%, and cryptocurrency owners rose from 4% to 14%. Note that 44% of millennials claim that they will buy BTC within the next five years.
    There is an increase аrom 18% to 47% in the number of people trusting bitcoin more than large banks. Among millennials surveyed, there are 51 percent of them, among older people, only 7 percent of them. It is noteworthy that the number of people over 65 who are familiar with cryptocurrencies has grown by 51%! The authors of the study believe that this is due to the growing mention of bitcoin in the media and the growing support for coins from the side of trade.

    - A team of researchers from Bloomberg Agency published a report forecasting the rapid resumption of the rally of the leading cryptocurrency. According to analysts, the market has the most comfortable environment for the flow of capital into the crypto industry. Among the factors contributing to the strengthening of BTC, experts highlighted the weakening position of central banks, as well as the growth of investment in gold, the digital counterpart of which is bitcoin. The low volatility that we have observed over the past weeks also contributes to the flow of funds from the stock market to BTC. The result of the new bitcoin race should be a rise to $12,000. Recall that among Bloomberg analysts, Mike McGlone is an ardent supporter of the largest cryptocurrency. He said back in June that a BTC jerk was imminent, with the result by the end of the year being to overcome the psychological milestone of $20,000. In shaping his forecast, McGlone relied on statistics on the growth of active addresses in the BTC network.

    - Anthony Trenchev, Managing Partner of Nexo Credit Platform, gave an even more optimistic forecast. In his opinion, the value of bitcoin may exceed $50,000 in a few months. During an interview at the Block Down conference, Anthony Trenchev said that the Nexo platform is growing tens of percent every month, new customers are constantly registering, both retail and institutional investors. And it is the increased participation of institutionals that can be the driver of growth.
    Trenchev believes that from the point of view of fundamental factors, bitcoin is now stronger than ever. It looks particularly strong against the backdrop of quantitative easing policies pursued by central banks. “I think it's good for gold and especially for bitcoin. So, I'm sticking to my $50,000 forecast by the end of the year. I admit, this is a bold statement, but fundamental factors and a change in attitude towards cryptocurrency make it real,” Anthony Trenchev concluded.

    - A popular crypto analyst under the nickname PlanB conducted a survey among Twitter users to find out what the price of BTC will be by December 2021. The survey involved 26,639 people. Most respondents believe that the largest cryptocurrency will not be able to break above $55,000. Nearly 30% of respondents named the $100,000 mark. And 17% do not exclude the option in which BTC will approach $ 300,000.

    - Developer and founder of startup Zap Inc. Jack Mullers announced the launch of the Strike product into the open beta stage. Strike will allow transfers in BTC via direct bank deposits, similar to how it works with dollars. 2Also, in order to enter the market in the most efficient way, the startup is preparing to release its own card in the Visa system.
    This year, Visa accepted the Fold cryptocurrency cashback distribution program into Fast Track. There is also a debit card that allows you to pay with cryptocurrency. It is not yet known what option will be offered to Zap card holders.

    - The chief organizer and principal perpetrator of the Olalekan crime scheme, Jacob Ponle, better known as Woodbery, has been extradited from the UAE and will be tried in the United States in a case of money laundering, fraud a particularly large scale and a number of crimes. The cybercriminal faces up to 20 years in prison. According to the FBI, about 2 million people and organizations have become victims of fraud over the past few years. The group included at least 11 people who were engaged in hacker attacks on computers and servers of large American companies, having stolen about $168 million.

    - The ZUBR crypto derivatives exchange published a study according to which the daily mining of bitcoin by the end of this decade will be significantly lower than the demand for it from buyers. Based on the performance of Chainalysis, ZUBR estimates that by the time of the next halving in 2024, small investors will already absorb more than 50% of the supply. And if everything continues at this rate, the demand for bitcoins will significantly exceed the supply by 2028, which will entail a significant increase in the price of this cryptocurrency.


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  11. Stan NordFX

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    Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 13 - 17, 2020


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The dollar is slowly weakening, the pair moved above Pivot Point 1.1240 last week, but is still within the five-week channel 1.1170-1.1350. As expected by 25% of experts, the bulls made an attempt to reach the level of 1.1400, but their attack choked quickly, and, turning at the height of 1.1370, the pair went down again, ending the five-day period in the 1.1300 zone.
    The pressure on the American currency is explained by the improvement in the economic situation in a number of countries, including the EU. Enterprises have started working there, demand is recovering, buyers are returning to stores, unlike the United States, where even Fed officials doubt the ability of the economy to recover quickly. Thus, FOMC members Rosengren and Barkin noted that, having fulfilled the old orders, the industry has so far not received new ones. And this could lead to further printing of dollars and an increase in the quantitative easing (QE) program.
    All this comes amid a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. On Wednesday, July 08, a new peak of infections was reached in the United States, 60 thousand people. The number of deaths doubled compared with average levels, reaching 1000 per day, which is a significant reason for the growth of pessimism among market participants.
    The euro, on the contrary, feels better, thanks to the improvement of the epidemiological situation and the competent monetary and fiscal policy of the EU. Support for Europe is also provided by the rapidly strengthening yuan and, paradoxically, the US president Donald Trump. More precisely, his falling ratings, because of which he is now not up to the trade wars with China. And if Democrat Joe Biden becomes the new president, then Washington’s policy towards Beijing may change dramatically, which will lead to further growth of the Chinese and, as a consequence, European economies;

    - GBP/USD. In the last issue of the forecast, we wondered whether the growth of the pound was considered a temporary correction or a serious turnaround in the trend. The vast majority of indicators, along with graphical analysis, predicted a further rise for the pair. A total of 50% of experts also spoke in favor of its northward movement, with 30% pointing to a resistance of 1.2680 as a limiter. And they were right: the week's high was recorded at 1.2670, followed by a slight bounce down and a finish at 1.2625.
    The steady growth of the pound was facilitated by the widespread weakening of the dollar (the reasons are indicated above), as well as moderate optimism caused by the negotiations on the terms of the UK's exit from the EU;

    — USD/JPY. Tokyo, like a number of US states, has also recorded a record rise in coronavirus cases. However, so far this is not very worrying for investors, especially since the data on actual orders for machine tools and equipment that became known this week turned out to be higher than forecast, which indicates some recovery in the Japanese economy.
    Against the backdrop of a general weakening of the dollar, the yen was able to strengthen its position a bit: starting the week from 107.50, the pair sank to the horizon of 106.65 by Friday evening. The final chord of the week was set at 106.90;

    – cryptocurrencies. If a few months ago, the main topic of discussion was the question of whether Bitcoin can be considered a safe haven asset, now the topic of correlation of the main cryptocurrency with the stock market is constantly being discussed. For example, the Skew portal calculated that the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P500 index has now reached a historical high and currently its coefficient is approximately 66%. According to portal analysts, this means that Bitcoin has failed to become the antithesis of traditional finance and is moving in the same harness with them. Some even called bitcoin a "stock market startup."
    There is a certain logic to this, since the main source of financing for both markets, both the stock and crypto, have been central banks in recent months, and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve, which pours the economy with a huge amount of cheap money.
    But if you look at the graphs, a completely different picture emerges. Since the May halving of the BTC, the S&P500 index has risen by about 9%, the Nasdaq 100 - by 19%, but bitcoin, having failed to gain a foothold above $10,000, has gone down and now is consolidated in the $9,000-9,500 zone. So where's the correlation?
    Unlike the stock market, bitcoin does not look like the most attractive asset at the moment, despite the entreaties of all kinds of crypto gurus. The main cryptocurrency continues to consume a huge amount of energy, and at its current price, it loses its supporters even among miners, whose revenue, according to Coindesk estimates, fell by 26% in June.
    The cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown slightly over the past week, reaching $269 billion, and has only returned to where it was already on June 22 and 24. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index of Bitcoin has not changed at all for the week: its arrow is still at 41.
    Such sluggishness of the main cryptocurrency plays into the hands of altcoins, especially since it has become much easier to buy them than a year or two ago. And if on May 15 the share of Bitcoin in the crypto market was 69.81%, now it has dropped to 62.79%. That is, in less than two months, the drop was 7.02% in absolute terms and 10% in relative terms.
    Unlike BTC, many altcoins show impressive growth in July, and this can't help but attract investor attention. So, for example, the growth of Ethereum (ETH/USD) at the high of July 07 was about 10%, Ripple (XRP/USD) - 20%, Cardano - 34%. The record holders were Dogecoin, which added 79% after the viral video in TikTok and VeChain with 101%.

    continued below...
     
  12. Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. If earlier the main reference point for investors was US stock indices, now everything has changed. At the beginning of July, the ball is ruled not at all by the American S&P500, but by the Chinese Shanghai Composite. And if before the US economy grew much faster than the European economy, fueled by trade wars with China, things have now turned 180 degrees. Now the Fed no longer has the ability to raise the interest rate, making the dollar more attractive compared to rival currencies. A black cloud over the US economyis the prospect of massive non-repayment of loans, which are the main driver of its growth.
    The dollar index has already returned to the area of June lows, losing 1.4% since early July, and this trend threatens to become long-term. According to some experts, the American currency may lose up to 20% of its value within a few years, losing most of what has been won since 2014.
    The average forecast of the 11 largest US banks indicates the EUR/USD pair at 1.1500 by the end of 2020. The only one to favor the strengthening of the dollar and lower the pair towards 1.0500 was investment bank Merrill Lynch. The reason for this forecast was the expectation of an expansion of the ECB's quantitative easing program by €400-600 billion.
    If we talk about the forecast for the coming days, according to the Bloomberg Probability Calculator, based on the readings of the options market, the EUR/USD pair has a better chance to rise above 1.1500 than to fall below 1.1200. 80% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are also colored green. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.

    - GBP/USD. This week we expect: Monday, July 13, a statement by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, Tuesday - data on GDP, Wednesday - on the consumer market, and Thursday - on the UK labor market. Particular attention should be paid to Tuesday 14 July: according to preliminary forecasts, GDP growth in May may be 5% compared with a drop of 20.4% a month earlier. And if the forecast proves correct, it could serve to further strengthen the British currency.
    Its growth is expected by 65% of experts, supported by 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on H4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. The main goal is the high of June 10, 1.2810, resistance is located at levels 1.2670 and 1.2740.
    The opposite point of view is shared by 35% of analysts and the remaining oscillators, painted red on H4 and located in the overbought zone on D1.
    It should be noted that when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the number of bear supporters among experts increases to 60%. The goal is to return the pair to the 1.2250-1.2400 zone;
    [​IMG]

    - USD/JPY. Except for a single release on June 2-05, the pair has been moving in the lateral corridor 106.00-108.10 for 13 weeks, and, according to experts, is not going to leave its limits yet. At the same time, 70% of analysts vote for further strengthening of the yen and reduction of the pair to the lower border of the corridor, supported by graphical analysis on H4, and 30% are for its growth to the upper border. Among the oscillators on both H4 and D1, 80% are colored red, 95% among trend indicators.
    In terms of important economic developments, the Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate on Wednesday, July 15, followed by a press conference of its management. However, surprises are most likely not worth waiting for, and the rate will remain negative at the level of -0.1%;

    – cryptocurrencies. The gurus of this market, as usual, compete in predictions regarding the rise of Bitcoin. So, a team of researchers from the Bloomberg Agency published a report, according to which the BTC/USD pair is expected to grow to $12,000 in the near future. Recall that among Bloomberg analysts, Mike McGlone is an ardent supporter of the largest cryptocurrency. He said back in June that a BTC jerk was imminent, with the result by the end of the year being to overcome the psychological milestone of $20,000.
    - Anthoni Trenchev, Managing Partner of Nexo Credit Platform, gave an even more optimistic forecast. In his opinion, the value of bitcoin may exceed $50,000 in a few months. During an interview at the Block Down conference, Anthoni Trenchev said that the Nexo platform is growing tens of percent every month, new customers are constantly registering, both retail and institutional investors. And it is the increased participation of institutionals that can be the driver of growth. I admit, this is a bold statement, but fundamental factors and a change in attitude towards cryptocurrency make it real,” he concluded.
    The fact that the attitude is changing is indisputable. According to the survey conducted by The Tokenist in 17 countries, 45% of respondents would prefer to have cryptocurrency instead of stocks, real estate and gold, and among millennials their share is 92%.
    And now the results of another survey conducted on Twitter by popular cryptanalyst under the nickname PlanB with the aim of finding out what price BTC will be by the end of 2021. Of the nearly 27,000 surveyed, the majority (53%) were inclined to a high of $55,000. Nearly 30% of respondents named the $100,000 mark. And 17% do not exclude the option in which BTC will approach $ 300,000.
    As for forecasts for the next week, the vast majority of analysts still consider the level of $9,000 as Pivot Point for the pair BTC/USD, citing the lower limit of fluctuations as $8,800, the upper - $9,700. And only 10 per cent believe the pair could drop to the $8,400 zone.


    NordFX Analytical Group


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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