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246 posts in this topic
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US Budget Concerns Casts Doubt on Fed Plans

 

The US Federal Reserve is more than ready to raise its interest rates this coming June, but the possibility of the Congress rattling up the markets by slowing down progress on increasing the debt ceiling of the US economy has cast a shadow of doubt on the Fed’s next scheduled rate hike on September. Prior to this development, the Fed has been saying that they are currently planning to implement two more rate hikes before the year ends, but has now reverted to saying that the third rate hike for year might be in for some delays if the market gets shaken by possible disagreements on fiscal policies.

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Slow Growth of Scottish Economy, EY reports

 

Based on the forecast of the EY Scottish item club that the GDP growth will be weak falling below expectation with 0.9% growth this year where a half of it is expected for the Britain and will predominantly hit the retail sector. It is anticipated to fall by 0.1% this year and will decrease in a bigger number by 0.5% and 0.3% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

 

Consumers will be greatly pressured from this which will increase by 1% in 2017 and below 1% in the succeeding years until 2020 while the employment is assumed to drop by fall this year.

 

On the other hand, the manufacturing sector will rise following the overall economy for the first time since 4 years ago, because of higher demand and depreciation of sterling which will boost exports.

 

Overall, the Scottish economy is foreseen to have a sluggish growth than the Britain by 0.7% in 2018 before gaining its momentum again to reach 1.4% growth within this decade.

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Goldman Sachs Higher Rates to Gain More Clients

 

The Goldman Sachs Bank U.S.A. intends to increase its rates on client deposit by 1.2 percent from the previous 1.05 percent. The rate hike makes them higher than other financial institutions including CIT Bank, Synchrony Bank, and New York Community Bank's My

Banking Direct. The average rate is at 0.06 percent 0.06 percent as reported by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

 

They are searching for ways to improve lending in money management and investment banking category which they said to had a rough time with. In 2016,  they introduced Marcus as their primary approach to consumer lending. This rate hike move hopes to expand profit of Goldman Sachs and appeal to additional Main Street clients which will eventually give bigger gains. Also, these deposits open a more robust type of funding and this would have stayed longer during uncertainty.

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ECB not yet to Withdraw Stimulus Program

 

The European Central Bank decided to loosen its monetary policy on Thursday but indicated that it further needs some support from the central bank amid increasing growth.

Mario Draghi, ECB president, is very cautious in his announcement regarding the withdrawal stimulus.

 

During the meeting held on Thursday which is accompanied by 25 members of the council, the bank kept its interest rates and bond-purchase stimulus program steady.

 

The governing council settled small adjustments towards the 19 emerging countries that utilizes the European currency by stating that interest rates could probably move lower. While Draghi issued another significant change as he described that risk to growth is currently “broadly balanced”, the tweak was announced during the April wherein risk are said to  "tilted to the downside."

 

Carsten Brzeski, analyst at ING-DiBa, allegorize the bank’s statement to a baby’s first step intended to taper the stimulus effort. The financial institution preserved its bond-buying program at 60 billion euros ($67 billion) each month which will last this year or longer.

Moreover, ECB officials were in a stew for the market’s response to the untimely notice that the stimulus will end as the rates will climb higher, undermining the effects.

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You can register for the next competition which will take place from June 19, 2017 to June 23, 2017

 

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Italy and Qatar to Continue Economic Ties

 

Countries, Italy and Qatar decided to maintain their deal regarding close integration on economy and finances. Even the decision of some Arab Countries along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is to break diplomatic, travel and trade agreement with Qatar.

 

The consensus was succeeded by a meeting between Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and Qatari Finance Minister Ali Sherif Al-Emadi held in Rome on Monday.

 

The two countries said in a joint statement that they discussed the ties in a very friendly atmosphere in accordance with its outstanding relationships on economics and politics

 

The visit of Al-Emadi in Italy is part of the leader’s European tours, hence he will also go to Berlin, London, Paris, and Washington.

 

The sovereign states of Arab which include Saudi and UAE ended its agreement with Qatar in the past week, they believe that Doha supports the finances of Iran together with other Islamist groups, but Doha refuted this accusation. While al-Elmadia stated earlier on Monday that his country is able to protect its economy against these charges.

 

In an interview with CNBC, he further mentioned that those countries that inflicted such sanction have the tendency to lose money due to the damage it wrought in the business sector of the region.

 

"A lot of people think we're the only ones to lose in this ... If we're going to lose a dollar, they will lose a dollar also," the leader added.

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Job Creation in Australia Reached 42,000, Unemployment Rate Slowdown by 5.5% in May

 

Australia created additional jobs with a total of 42,000 which exceeded the expectations of 10,000 as indicated in the roughly calculated poll led by Reuters, disclosed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. However, the number of unemployed for this month accounts to 5.5 percent which came in lesser than predicted 5.7 percent.

 

The Aussie dollar further gained strength after releasing the current employment data of the Australian economy at exactly 9:30 HK/SIN while the exchange rate against its American counterpart is greater by 0.5 percent.

 

The employment figures appeared to be volatile but the rate in the past few months showed some development within the labor sector, said by Steven Milch, the chief economist of Suncorp. Mr. Milch also mentioned that the number remained stable for the third consecutive month and much stronger than their anticipated figures.

 

In case that the trend will continue, it will also increase the wages which could reinforce the reflection of the RBA towards the economy as a “half empty glass”. This shows that the Reserve Bank of Australia is not probable to revise its policy anytime.

 

The central bank announced that earlier this June the labour market indicators will remain mixed, keeping its benchmark cash rate on hold at a record low of 1.5 percent. The financial institution also noted that the slackening of real income will curtail the growth in household spending.

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US Stocks Plunge after Brent Crash

 

The majority of US stock prices crashed on the back of an ever-worsening bout of slump on both industrial and oil shares, eclipsing recent price rallies caused by growth in biotech and aviation technology companies. Brent crude prices dropped to just under $45 per barrel and is now at par with WTI in terms of living with a highly bearish market as US stockpiles continue to be above average and Libya resumes its production. The US dollar also subsequently dropped in value while US Treasury yields did not exhibit any major changes after it was able to regain its losses.

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Sluggish Growth Prediction for Developed Countries

 

A U.S. central banker forewarned that advanced economies and financial institutions in the United States will face a slower economic growth for long-term unless fiscal officials do something to counter this. Although, this comes surprisingly since the Federal Reserve just increased its interest rates earlier this month and intend to do more rate hikes gradually to prevent overheating of the economy. This also indicates positive growth of the economic outlook.

 

Federal Reserve president John Williams said that this optimism will only last for short-term and will change over time. With the sluggish growth, this gives a hard time for monetary policymakers to curb inflation and sustain full employment. This leaves the central bank with no choice but to rate hike since low growth trims the demand for investment and further push down the interest rates.  

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IMF Cuts Growth Forecast for US Economy

 

The International Monetary Fund watered down its economic outlook for the United States due to the high level of risk regarding the plans of current president Donald Trump in boosting growth in the economy. According to their forecast, U.S will gain an annual rate of 2.1 percent for this year which is a positive increase compared with 1.6 percent recorded in 2016, however, it is comparatively lower to 2.3 percent estimate on April.

 

The Washington-based organization also cut its forecast for 2018 saying that the country will have a hard time in reaching the 3 percent target determined in the first budget of the president. The latest growth numbers are part of the annual review made by the IMF to the American economy which is released on June 27. Report says the forecast was trimmed down because it was clearly stated that various parts regarding the expenditure project and administration tax are still ambivalent.

 

With these concerns, the institution said that the final decision is made in order to abate any assumptions concerning the programs of Trump will get the Congress approval and rather to work with predictions that ongoing policies will remain consistent.

 

Based on IMF’s projections, the yearly GDP growth is 2.1 percent for 2017 and 2018 and this will decrease by 1.9 percent by 2019 while in the year 2020 it will only reach 1.8 percent.

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The current Money Fall contest has already started on July 3, 2017 and will end on July 7, 2017.

You can register for the next competition which will take place from July 10, 2017 to July 14, 2017

 

Note:

Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

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Central Bank of Denmark Probable Membership in E.U. Banking Union

 

The central bank of Denmark has taken into account on a positive note its participation to the European Union's banking union. The government has decided to launch a review according to the central bank on Tuesday.  

 

This is a significant step from the country as the focus which would be the could lead to a final decision when the Brexit has already been concluded come autumn of 2019. At the same time, this would help the Nordic country in consideration as the financial center.

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Oil Recovered As Bonds Progressed

 

Oil improved after a sharp decline and both of the European stocks and bonds were in the red on Thursday as the market awaits for the ECB minutes. This would determine the next actions of the central bank. Although, the Fed Reserve showed mixed signals on Wednesday. Bond yields climbed higher again as the benchmark of U.S. Treasuries rose more than 2.34 percent which increased the global borrowing rates.

 

The market was caught in between the ambiguous results from FOMC minutes and the U.S. employment statistics on Friday. The beginning of G20 summit has been the center of attention after the long-range missile test this week launched by the North Korea.

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Emerging Markets and Bonds Selloff Continues

 

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen reached a four-month high while both the bonds and the emerging market currencies are under pressure once again on Tuesday. There are looking for higher interest rates in expanding number of major economies.

 

There are higher expectations as the MSCI world index is steadily progressing as it rose for a third day although it declined after the Europe stock market dropped. This staggered as the bonds yields from euro zone continued its uptrend in March but halted on Monday as the market turned its attention to the monetary tightening of large economies globally.

 

The Federal Reserve aims to adjust the large collection of bonds to ease the financial crises where speeches were given on Wednesday while the both the ECB and BoE officials are scheduled to talk on Tuesday. They are divided on whether to proceed with a rate hike yet the overnight index swaps market are priced high and 80 percent probability for a second rate hike by the end of the year.

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Argentina’s National Index Rose 1.2 percent in June

 

In Argentina, consumer prices climbed to 1.2 percent for the month of June according to the national statistics agency NDEC on Tuesday, which is the first time the country has published a national index since the start of President’s Macri office. This is regarded as a “milestone” to rebuild the credibility of the country’s official statistics following the accusation of statistical manipulation. The IMF has lifted its disapproval to the statistics agency.

 

Previously, the inflation in the greater Buenos Aires area was 1.4 percent in June and 21.9 percent in the past year. Come the first six months of the year, the consumer price increase by 11.8 percent countywide and 12 percent in the area.

 

The central bank stated that the national index will now be the basis for monetary policy and kept its benchmark interest rate at 26.25 percent on Tuesday but still maintain the inflation target within the 12 to 17 percent.  Economists forecast of national inflation will be at 21.5 percent this year.

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Yellen Assessed US Economy Growth Target

 

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday that the 3 percent target of the current administration of Trump is “quite challenging” to cope with.

 

US President Donald Trump pledged during his campaign in 2016 to improve the economic growth by 4 percent, however, the officials trimmed it down to 3 percent and claimed that it might take some time to complete.

 

Moreover, Yellen mentioned that is  "very disappointing," and gave a forewarning that the potential growth of the American economy is now lowered to 2 percent. The chairwoman was asked if it's still possible for the country to gain its three percent goal in the next five years and she answered,  "I think it would be quite challenging."

 

She further stated that higher growth rate requires a great increase in productivity growth which is currently at 0.5 percent, hence, an extreme surge is needed to accelerate and at least few points are regarded as significant.

 

During the second day of her semi-annual testimony, she said to the Senate Banking Committee that the 3 percent expansion would be wonderful and she’d love to witness it.

 

The incumbent Chair of the Board is scheduled to end her term on February 3, 2018, if President Trump did not reappoint her for another 4-year term.

 

Yellen also underlined the things that hamper productivity growth which is related to the dilemma of company reports about looking for qualified laborer, emphasizing the urgency to focus on training worker and further education.

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Forecast of Fed’s Easing of Balance Sheet to Raise Rates on Q4

 

The U.S. Federal Reserve intends to curtail its balance sheet estimated $4 trillion or more in September according to the Reuters poll. It still in the track of what the Fed hinted in the past few weeks despite there is no congruence when it comes to inflation which is deemed to be essential as it could influence the future interest rate hikes.

 

Last month, it is predicted that Fed would raise its rates by September but this was recalibrated and moved for another month with the outcomes of the latest polls saying that fed funds rate would increase by 1.25 to 1.50 percent by the end of the year. Also, the financial market is positioning only 43 percent probability of 25 basis point rate hike for December which is currently high considering the weaker U.S. inflation data.

 

As the Fed is being idle regarding its rates, about two-third of economists are expecting the central bank to ease up its bond portfolio in September and only a few foresee the central bank to loosen up its plan on July 25 and 26. Predominantly, they are saying the Fed will hold out on monetary policy at the meeting.

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Loose Monetary Policy of ECB Proposed by Villeroy

 

The European Central Bank is in the process of curbing inflation to attain the two percent inflation target but ECB policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau pointed that a monetary easing is still needed. He said that the risk of deflation has been cleared despite the fact the target inflation is still a long way to go. Thus, he concluded that an “accommodative monetary policy” implying that their decision is relative to the economic condition of the economy moving towards the target rate.

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Higher than Expected UK Retail Sales in June -ONS

 

According to the latest reading on the strength of the UK consumer, it shows an optimistic stance. As shown in the most recent retail sales data issued by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the sales increased by 0.6 percent in June, exceeding expectations of 0.4 percent while there is a 1.1 percent decline in May.

 

Increased in the area of spending, except in fuel products, were recorded with the largest expansion in sales particularly in household goods stores. While shoes and clothing performed better as well.

 

The clothing sales in some parts of the United Kingdom came in above average in June, however, the north of the border was failed to boost.

 

Based on the figures presented by the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) earlier this week, it indicates a total increase in sales by only 0.2 percent in June while the sales for non-food items fell by 4.2 percent.

 

The quarterly trend in UK created by ONS shows that retail sales surged by 1.5 percent in the three months to the end of June, that eliminated the 1.4 percent downturn during the Q1 of 2017.

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